thestatedtruth.com | November 8, 2011
It’s the gift that keeps taking…. Fannie Mae has now borrowed $111.6 billion from the government, and paid back a mere $17 billion in forced dividends. Freddie Mac has taken more than $71 billion in aid and paid back around $15 billion. The net cost to the taxpayers for bailing out both now stands at […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 3, 2011
Some sobering thoughts from Caroline Baum, author of “Just What I Said”. She is a Bloomberg News columnist (the opinions expressed are her own). Why is so much energy being directed, or misdirected, at housing? Wouldn’t those efforts be better spent charting a sound course for the overall economy rather than targeting a specific sector? For […]
thestatedtruth.com | October 13, 2011
Food for deep thought…these are staggering! State and local government debt has reached an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. U.S. households are now receiving more income from the U.S. government than they are paying to the government in taxes. According to a new study conducted by the BlackRock Investment Institute, the ratio of […]
thestatedtruth.com | October 9, 2011
What a joke….Read my lips…There should be no bonuses until the losses are all made up. Period. No exceptions. None. Capice! CalPERS, the California state pension fund, which serves more than 1.6 million public employees, retirees and their families, estimated its unfunded liabilities at $38.6 billion on July 1, 2008, it’s bigger now! CalPERS currently has […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 29, 2011
Pending home sales fell 1.2 percent in August after dropping 1.3 percent the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said. Homeowner sentiment also dropped to the lowest ever, falling to minus 49.5 from minus 47.1. Earlier this week, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.1 percent in July from the […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 29, 2011
Soo…The next thing coming is to re-modify the re-modified loans….that should kick the can down the road for another year or so. That way the bankers can collect on this years bonus money. One in five homeowners whose mortgages were modified under a program aimed at reducing foreclosures defaulted again within a year after their […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 26, 2011
Concerning the stock markets, a proven technique has been when in doubt, run for the hills….. From The Wall Street Journal: In a historic retreat, investors world-wide during the three months through August pulled some $92 billion out of stock funds in the developed markets, according to data provider EPFR Global—an exodus that more than […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 11, 2011
This is what we discussed on August 30 here at www.thestatedtruth.com : Da boys in the White House are working on a new giveaway to be presented after the Labor Day weekend. The word is, that it will highlight how to give real estate losers something for nothing (free monopoly money or casino chips) in an effort to turn around […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 6, 2011
So…overall household debt to disposable income has declined minesquely from a peak of 134% in 2007 to 125% currently. That doesn’t exactly set the house on fire as most assets have declined at a faster rate, especially for entities that have not experienced stable or growing revenues (main street America comes to mind). If Dick Stoken is […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 2, 2011
The positive side of this…..should put more monthly income into the economic system. But…lenders’ capacity to handle loan applications could be an obstacle for the Obama administration, which is weighing options for spurring a housing recovery, including steps to promote refinancing for underwater borrowers, or those who owe more than their property is worth. Almost […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 30, 2011
Da boys in the White House are working on a new giveaway to be presented after the Labor Day weekend. The word is, that it will highlight how to give real estate losers something for nothing (free monopoly money or casino chips) in an effort to turn around housing….kind of like magic. As you might guess, the banks aren’t so happy about […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 22, 2011
Demographics my dear Watson……According to a Federal Reserve Bank report just out stocks could fall an average of 13% over the next ten years solely because of retiring baby boomers. The actual P/E ratio should decline from about 15 in 2010 to about 8.3 in 2025. The model-generated path for real stock prices implied by demographic trends […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 18, 2011
Not exactly what the housing market needs to find a bottom….fiddling with or elimination of the real estate mortgage deduction and real estate tax deduction will be disastrous in the current environment. Although the compromise legislation itself involved no new taxes, it created an unusual mechanism, an evenly split, 12-member bipartisan super-committee that could call for […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 3, 2011
The consumer is broke and getting broker. So far, the free loaders have been free spenders. That’s about to change as the banks get closer to kicking millions of the mortgage dead beats out of their homes. As this evolves things will likely get down right nasty for the economy! From Bloomberg: Disclosure from an internal, […]
thestatedtruth.com | July 30, 2011
So much for the recovery. Button up and stay alert. Maintaining what one has will go to the fiscally fittest…… John Williams of Shadow Stats confirms the severity of the on coming double dip. – GDP Growth Slows Markedly – Official Downturn Much Deeper In Revision – Latest GDP No Longer Has Recovered Pre-Recession High – 2009 Annual […]
thestatedtruth.com | July 29, 2011
Better late then never…..looks like the government finally gets real on housing! Research released Monday by William Hedberg, a San Francisco Fed research associate, and John Krainer, a senior economist, say housing weakness is likely to continue for years. We’re now starting to see the government throw in the towel on trying to artificially save housing. Supply and […]
thestatedtruth.com | July 20, 2011
It’s the new normal, and it’s going to be here a while….. NAR: With job creation below expectations, excessively tight loan standards are keeping many buyers from completing deals….And proposals being considered in Washington could effectively put more restrictions on lending. An unprecedented 16% cancelled contracts in June. According to the NAR, June existing home sales […]
thestatedtruth.com | July 6, 2011
Hmm, let’s see…..the Mortgage Bankers Association (village idiots) back in January targeted  $616 billion in new lending from mortgage loans covering the 2011 calendar year. It was a nice try but a stab in the dark. Guess what?  They just gutted that number…yep, down she goes, so now they expect it to come in around $432 billion for 2011. The village idiots were only off by […]
thestatedtruth.com | July 3, 2011
Charlie Munger, billionaire Warren Buffett’s vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, imparts his  wisdom at the final Wesco annual shareholders meeting in Pasadena, California. Berkshire now owns Wesco. In business and in personal affairs, be patient but aggressive when you know what you want, Munger advised. He also stressed the importance of continuous learning. His current field of study: Astrophysics. […]
thestatedtruth.com | June 28, 2011
Interest rates are at record 100 year lows, but even so, the world is sporting an unusually slow learning curve! Logically speaking, if interest rates were to climb,  it would be “lights out, game over” and the mother of all depressions. Something to think about since no one else seems to be interested. BIS is warning of higher rates […]
thestatedtruth.com | June 27, 2011
Remember the old saying, you’re only as strong as the weakest link….or links which is the case more often now days. Looks like the dominoes in Ireland are falling. They’re not alone. “Ireland is screwed,” said a local expert. “Our property developers are broke. And they owe a lot of money to the banks. So they’re broke too. […]
thestatedtruth.com | June 22, 2011
Considering that we’re in the summer buying season, this is bad news….. Purchases of existing homes fell 3.8% in May from the prior month to an annual rate of 4.81 million homes. At that pace, sales this year would drop below last year’s 13-year low of 4.91 million. At the same time, the price of […]
thestatedtruth.com | June 18, 2011
So, what does the federal government say about all of this?…….Uh, we never promised anyone a Rose Garden! Bloomberg: Little Rock, Arkansas, has stopped replacing aging police cars. Mesa, Arizona, is losing $5 million a year from thousands of vacant homes that aren’t paying utility bills. Providence, Rhode Island, closed schools, fired teachers and may cut […]
thestatedtruth.com | June 9, 2011
Household wealth in the U.S. climbed by $943 billion in the first quarter of 2011 according to the Federal Reserve’s flow of funds report out of Washington,  as rising stock market share prices outstripped declines in home values. From the peak in June 2007 to the low in 2009 the losses from all asset groups combined were -24.9% of assets. As of […]
thestatedtruth.com | June 1, 2011
Chris is one of the top real estate and banking minds for institutional money. Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics: “If we do not see a meaningful recovery in home prices by the end of the year, we may need to contemplate impairment charges on first liens owned by banks and wholesale write-downs of second […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 26, 2011
Does anyone really doubt that the markets (Bonds,Stocks and Real Estate) are not an artificial rig job! In the past that wasn’t the case.  But times have changed. We guess desperate times call for desperate measures. Hmm. So here it is again: a secret bailout program used to “rip” the peasantry by the entitled kleptocrats, which nobody thought would […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 25, 2011
From King World News……Michael Pento Of Europacific Capital…non-financial debt as a percentage of GDP is now 244%, it has never been higher! QE2 is done, if interest rates rise it’s game over.  “I just want to highlight some things that Jim Bullard said (President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve): You have to remember that he […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 25, 2011
We’ll give you one guess on who these “Dark Forces’ are…..yep, one guess. If you said it’s the too big to fail banks or financial institutions, indirectly (through political lobbyists) then you’re guess is in agreement with our guess, and you get a brownie button! Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said “dark forces†are waging a “war of […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 25, 2011
So…what happened to all of the buyers….Auh,  looks like they must have figured it out, smartened up, that the government was manipulating and artificially maintaining the markets higher with low interest rates and first time buyer credits along with Fannie Mae lost leader loans, etc. and through the puppet strings of the banks that are given privileged favors from the […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 17, 2011
U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fell in April Surprising Analysts…..We’re wondering what’s so unexpected about it? Work began on 523,000 houses at an annual pace, down 11 percent from the prior month and less than the 569,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Building permits, […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 9, 2011
What this chart tells us is…..that household equity is 38.8% if we include all houses paid for and with a mortgage both combined in the mix…..but home equity for the sub group of “only houses with a mortgage, excluding paid for houses” is only 19.2%.
thestatedtruth.com | May 9, 2011
Another interesting chart….are they lazy free loaders or just late bloomers? We’ll call them the un- motivated generation.
thestatedtruth.com | May 9, 2011
Highlights from a new report from Zillow on real estate…………….The number of homes with negative equity rose to 27% or 16.2 million units in the first quarter from 13.1 million units a year earlier. In the first quarter of 2009 only 22% of homes were underwater, Zillow said. Home prices slumped 8.2 percent on average over the past 12 months. Property […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 9, 2011
Some of the smartest guys we know, the ones that use their own money to buy and sell houses…are thinking 15%-20% further down from here and 2-4 years to clear huge stealth inventories. They say the banks have just started to get more realistic on pricing of bank owned properties, and will become very aggressive to get […]
thestatedtruth.com | May 4, 2011
This long down period makes sense….everybody is hoping for the best, but demographics and many other things point to a very negative period ahead for real estate. Can Americans cope with a 10 to 15 year bear market in real estate? On this front there is good news, and bad news. The bad news is that we are likely […]
thestatedtruth.com | April 24, 2011
From this weeks Barron’s……………Mark Hanson points out, banks and servicers are back with a vengeance and cutting asking prices sharply “to blow out distressed inventory.” Other price depressants he cites include unfavorable demographics, soaring energy costs and a broken mortgage market. The chart below is from Yale economist Robert Shiller, and it plots an index (called […]
thestatedtruth.com | April 20, 2011
This just in from S&P, which does a follow up to its earlier U.S. outlook warning, and revises its GSE and FHLB outlook to negative. Let’s remember that this is happening in an economic (supposed) recovery. NEW YORK (Standard & Poor’s) April 20, 2011–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it revised its outlooks on […]
thestatedtruth.com | April 8, 2011
Nobody seems to be paying attention to this….. From the WSJ: Mall vacancies hit their highest level in at least 11 years in the first quarter, new figures from real-estate research company Reis Inc. showed. In the top 80 U.S. markets, the average vacancy rate was 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The outlook is especially bad […]
thestatedtruth.com | April 1, 2011
Governments are STUPID……Last week we found out that fewer new houses were sold in February than in any month since they started keeping records in 1963….yep, the more you give somebody, the more they become reliant on it, then when it stops, they don’t know what to do. We’re seeing this same thing happen over and over. […]
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