Hindenburg Omen Continues!

| August 18, 2013

The dreaded Hindenburg Omen continues through August 14….. For the 6th day in the last 8, the market has flashed a string of Hindenburg chart warnings that suggest that all is not well in a stock  market considered by some to be “ government driven”. See our review of this several posts below, it will explain the Hindenberg Omen in detail.

Not Sounding Good…Especially Since We’re In An Economic Recovery (Sort Of)

| August 18, 2013

Things that make you wonder….and then question, how could this happen! 76% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck 27% of American have no savings at all 46% of Americans have less than $800 in savings The conversion of America into a part-time working society and the country’s second largest employer – a temp agency. The […]

Currently, Stock Markets Of The World Show Little Fear…But Maybe They Should!

| August 13, 2013

Why, you say…. It’s the dreaded Hindenburg Omen! “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration.” The Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a […]

The Rich Get Richer, And ….Well, You Know The Drill

| April 23, 2013

It’s now a rich mans world, but it wasn’t always this way! As the Pew Research Center finds, during the first two years of the US economic ‘recovery’, the mean net worth of households in the upper 7% of the wealth distribution rose by an estimated 28%, while the mean net worth of households in the lower 93% […]

Bad Seats…Hey Buddy!

| March 12, 2013

Hmm…This from the very successful Kyle Bass We are right back there! The brevity of financial memory is about two years. I don’t get paid to be an optimist, I don’t get paid to be pessimist, I get paid to be a realist – and a prudent fiduciary of the capital, and then if i […]

Retirement Market Assets Are Looking Much Better…But We Have A Long Way To Go

| March 8, 2013

Hmm….the average working age person has only about $79,651 saved up for retirement. That works out to about  $416 per mounth of retirement payout if retiring at age 62. ICI recently released their retirement plan data through Q3 of 2012. The chart of the day shows the real (inflation adjusted) total retirement market assets per working age citizen […]

The Consumer Appears Taped Out As Income Dropped By The Most In 20 Years…At The Same Time A Trap Door Just Opened, Taking The Savings Rate Back To 2007 Levels

| March 1, 2013

How do we define austerity?  Quit simply we think it means that out into the future… “we’re all going to be poorer”. This sets up a bad game, and looking at the view of the field, it really doesn’t look anything like the ticket they sold us……more specifically, we have  “bad seats, hey buddy…front row behind a pole, and we just sat […]

A Trillion Here And A Trillion There…. And Pretty Soon You’re Talking Real Money

| February 27, 2013

In some cases, a picture is worth a thousand words….in this case, we’re in the trillions. www.jsmineset.com

Fiscal Cliff’s And Slippery Slope’s

| November 19, 2012

Cumberland Associates has this perspective about the world wide slippery economic situation, and failed post-retirement promises made to a trusting populace. Let us get back to the difference between the US and Europe. European peripheral countries waited too long.  Now they cannot fund the promises that they made for retirement and post-retirement benefits, and so they have to […]

The Guessing Game….

| September 30, 2012

In This Guessing Game……There Are Four Possible Answers.  So here we go with inquiring minds! With the World on your shoulders,  which one  of  these four outcomes would you look to hitch your horse to…. 1. One who knows and knows that he knows… His horse of wisdom will reach the skies. 2. One who knows, but doesn’t know that he […]

Eminent Domain For Underwater Mortgages Is A Very Bad Idea

| June 29, 2012

The use of Eminent Domain to rewrite underwater mortgages would be catastrophic to the future of the housing industry.  It would guarantee that private capital would have no interest in writing future loans for property that could be seized.  Any idea that has no homeowner skin in the game should be dead on arrival! Officials in San Bernardino […]

Savings…Anybody Know What That Is?

| June 26, 2012

Hmm… Survey: More Than 25% of Americans Have No Emergency Savings! By Nancy Stanley While nearly half of Americans don’t have enough money saved to cover emergencies, one-quarter don’t have any money saved, according to Bankrate.com’s Financial Security Index survey. The general rule of thumb is to have enough cash saved to cover at least […]

U.S. Houshold Net Worth Jumps….

| June 7, 2012

It sounds like things are really rolling, but are they really? Since reaching a five-year low of $51.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2009, net worth has improved by $11.6 trillion. That leaves it $4.6 trillion below the record high of $67.5 trillion reached in the quarter ended September 2007, three months before the […]

California Sunshine

| May 12, 2012

So, Governor Brown, do you still expect to see Californians vote themselves a tax increase….get real. California’s projected budget deficit has ballooned to $16 billion from the $9.2 billion estimated in January, according to California Governor Jerry Brown, and he warned of more painful spending cuts dead ahead. “We will have to go much further, and make […]

Consumer Credit Soars Most In 10 Years

| May 7, 2012

Yikes….inquiring minds wonder how much more student loan debt these college kids can rack up…hum, this really is an unending spiral! U.S. consumer credit soared by $21.4 billion in March on expectations of $9.8 billion rise, or the fastest monthly expansion since March 2001. Of the toatal, a modest $5.1 billion was from real credit, or revolving style credit-card […]

Watch Out For Those Economic Hairpin Turns, They Are Everywhere…

| March 19, 2012

Spend, spend spend…… The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report, issued two weeks ago, reveals the extent of the average mans plight : Forty percent of all credit card users do not pay-off their credit card every month and carry an average balance of $16,000 at an average interest rate of 15%. Total U.S. credit market […]

U.S. Budget Deficits

| March 12, 2012

U.S. Budget Deficits – A picture is worth um, $580 billion, here’s why… in the first 5 months of the fiscal year, the U.S. has racked up $580 billion in deficits,

Maybe The E-Trade Baby Will Throw Cheeri-O-s At The Bonus Baby

| March 6, 2012

Bonus time…or maybe not!  Bankers and Wall Street listen up…The O in cheerios stands for zero bonus!  Capice! www.zerohedge.com

Discretionary Spending In The New Normal

| February 16, 2012

In the new normal let’s review some definitions: (Discretionary spending is a spending category through which governments can spend through an appropriations act.) This spending is optional as part of fiscal policy, in contrast to entitlement programs for which funding is mandatory. As the Budget Control Act cuts discretionary spending to a 50-year low (close to only […]

California January Tax Revenue Well Below Estimate By $528 Million

| February 10, 2012

So, Governor Brown, what happened to the big recovery  you were expecting…and how about the giant consumer spending binge of the last two months fueled mostly on credit……just asking?  This is a disaster to the state budget. Spending up as reflected in sales taxes, while income is down, relected in income taxes. California collected $528 million less in […]

Case Shiller: Real Estate Home Prices Continue To Head Lower

| January 31, 2012

More of the same…as personal income falls or flat lines, real estate will continue on a slippery slop. With record low interest rates, people, unlike in past recessions, still carry near record high amounts of debt. It is not indicative of a housing rebound. De-leveraging will continue to be a rage, unbeknown and not understood by most. The November […]

Delinquent Homeowners Get Free Money

| January 27, 2012

Yep, that’s right, if you are a responsible paying citizen you get nothing, but as the The Three Stooges would say, a poke in the eye….we know, yes there are families that really need the help for legitimate reasons, but much of this involves a reward for greed, and irresponsible actions. Oh, how times have changed! The HAMP expansion, called HAMP […]

Fed Cuts Growth Outlook, Remains Cautious

| January 25, 2012

The FED keeps stretching things out…one take is they are worried about other things not openly discussed…and, maybe worried about the thought that normal things might not go as planned either (but hope springs eternal)!  FED Summary:  No QE3; ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) Extended Thru 2014 FED EXPECTS TO MAINTAIN `HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE’ MONETARY POLICY FED SEES `EXCEPTIONALLY LOW’ RATES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE 2014 FED TO […]

Chicago Fed President Warns On Savings Drain And New Borrowing Binge

| January 18, 2012

We’ve been wondering the same as new cars are flying off the lot…….American households “have been spending recently in a way that did not seem in line with income growth. So somehow they’ve been doing that through perhaps additional credit card usage,” Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Friday.  In an other ominous sign […]

PIMCO’s El-Erian Again Warns: QE3 Won’t Produce The Outcomes We Want

| January 9, 2012

PIMCO ranks as one of the top 5 smartest bond money managers in the world…..we should pay attention to what they think.  EL-Erian and his business partner and PIMCO co-founder Bill Gross, along with another of the smartest money hedge fund managers Bridgewater, stated in separate reports last week that the economic bounce we’re seeing now is unlikely to last, because most […]

Sooooo…Let’s Review The Inequity Of It All !

| January 8, 2012

FOMC Minutes: Fed To Start Releasing Official Fed Funds Rate Forecasts

| January 3, 2012


Government Morons…Unbelievable, Simply Unbelievable!

| December 18, 2011

Extend and pretend, benefit extentions looked all set to go….but not so fast, they may not get approved after all.  On Sunday House Speaker John Boehner flatly ruled out approval of a Senate agreement to temporarily extend the payroll tax cut through February.   But,  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said if Mr. Boehner rejected the Senate […]

The Consumer Predicament Means Years In The Dog House

| December 17, 2011

The U.S.consumer debt situation remains a major problem and is far from its normal boundaries.  It will remain so for some time to come, and we mean years! Here’s an updated look at the U.S. consumer. During the housing boom, consumer leverage rose at nearly twice the rate of corporate and banking leverage. Even after all the […]

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac, The Turd In The Punch Bowl

| December 16, 2011

Uh, so how do you underestimate your sub-prime loans number by 238 billion dollars from 2006 to 2008 and then allow yourself nice bonuses off those false numbers.  Lucky for us tax payers some of those bonuses were clawed back’ by the government.  Anybody out there think these guys missed the numbers by accident?  No, it was no accident!  […]

Australian Banks Have Been Told To Assume A Worst Case Scenario Concerning A European Union Debt Crisis And Currency Meltdown

| December 15, 2011

According to the Australian Finance Review, banks down under “have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness and a plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis.”  Bloomberg First Word describes for us what the article says: Australian Prudential Regulation Authority envision worst-case scenario of […]

Tax Receipts Foretell An Economic Contraction And New Recession

| December 14, 2011

A sharp decline in withholding tax receipts signals an imminent recession is dead ahead! The forward indicators that produce the most reliable signals with respect to recession forecasting continue to indicate that a return to economic contraction is highly likely in early 2012. Our computer models have been predicting the likely start of a new recession […]

Problem Banks, Next Up…Germany’s Commerzbank

| December 4, 2011

Banks are a moving target for a reason in the new World normal… Pressure is growing on Berlin over the weekend as there are rumors that COMMERZBANK, Germany’s second largest bank, will have to be nationalized. It means that the solvency of GERMAN banking is being challenged. If COMMERZBANK fails then one of the most levered banks in […]

Bill Gross Of PIMCO Says Interest Rates Will Stay Low For A Long Time

| December 2, 2011

Bill Gross of PIMCO says (despite today’s positive unemployment news) things continue to be bad, and interest rates will likely stay at record lows for another four years. From Bloomberg: Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said U.S. employment growth won’t prevent the Federal Reserve from signaling that borrowing rates will remain lower longer than policy makers have already indicated. […]

Did A Large European Bank Almost Fail Last Night?

| November 30, 2011

Hmm…this is speculative in nature, but here’s an interesting question: Just how bad was the situation, if the global central banking cabal had to intervene all over again, and just what was not being told to the general public? Forbes may have one explanation: “It appears that a big European bank got close to failure […]

Six Central Banks Save The World…Again!

| November 30, 2011

From PIMCO cofounder Mohamed El-Erian: The coordinated action “lowers the cost of emergency funding and increases the scope,”  Central banks “are seeing something in the functioning of the banking system that worries them”.  Six central banks led by the Federal Reserve made it cheaper for banks to borrow dollars in emergencies in a global effort to […]

Euro Could Go Bye Bye At Any Time…Hello, Anybody Listening?

| November 26, 2011

The time to prepare for a disaster, is before the disaster happens. Capice?  Britain’s Foreign Office Prepares For Riots In Europe British Embassies are being warned in Europe of dire consequences of an eventual Euro breakup.  Analysts at UBS, an investment bank earlier this year warned that the most extreme consequences of a break-up include risks […]

New Bank Criteria…The Fed Is Sending A Pointed Message

| November 23, 2011

We have NEVER seen the U.S. Fed set such a stringent set of criteria for the banks…we think there is a message here!  Actually it’s a no brainier!   Leverage is a killer near term. De leveraging and deflation is the immediate concern. The Federal Reserve released criteria yesterday for capital tests measuring the strength of the largest 31 […]

Engine Room – We Need More Steam….Hello, Mooore Steam?

| November 22, 2011

Art Cashin, from the floor of The New York Stock Exchange…. Unintended (And Unwelcome) Consequences – Rich Miller at Bloomberg caught our eye this morning with this rather disturbing note:   Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and fellow U.S. policy makers may find themselves hampered in restoring financial stability should the European debt crisis spread […]

The Maverick Bond Barons

| November 20, 2011

We have a broken down world! Can two Lone Rangers rescue us?   PIMCO’s Bill Gross laid out his pessimistic outlook, fretting that growth in developed countries could be weighed down for years by debt problems in Europe and high unemployment in the U.S. BlackRock’s Larry Fink said he sees “all the same problems, and the problems […]

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