It’s All About Oil and The Economy……….

Posted By on August 26, 2009

According to the US Department of Energy, liquid fuel demand in the developed nations peaked in August 2005 at 41.89 million barrels per day. Since then, it has plunged by 3.6 million barrels per day to 38.27 million barrels per day. However, you may want to note that despite these tough economic conditions, consumption has been extremely resilient in the emerging world. For instance, demand in the developing countries peaked in October 2008 at 46.33 million barrels per day and it is down by only 0.36 million barrels per day! I am amazed that the worst global recession in decades has barely managed to shrink energy demand in the developing world. Whilst this is wonderful news for the energy investor, it is a terrible sign for society.

At present, our world is using up roughly 84 million barrels of liquid fuels per day and for the moment at least, there is sufficient supply to meet demand (Figure 1). However, when economic activity picks up, it won’t take much for demand to zip right past supply. Remember, it is much easier to increase usage, but it takes a long time to ramp up production. So, unless this is a permanent global recession (which I doubt), it is inevitable that the price of oil will go up significantly over the medium to long-term.

Figure 1: Supply and demand – balanced for now

World Oil Demand and Supply

 

Source: www.yardeni.com

On the supply side of the equation, let me be clear. If I was asked to pick the biggest threat to a sustainable economic recovery, Peak Oil would top that list. Remember, Peak Oil doesn’t mean that we are running out of oil reserves, crude will be around for decades. However, ‘Peak Oil’ does imply that we are dangerously close to peak global oil production. ‘Peak Oil’ also means that rather than experiencing a burst in oil supplies as many expect, from here onwards, we will witness sharp declines in global flow rates. In a nutshell, the era of cheap energy is over and the price of crude oil will rocket higher over the coming decade.

“…it is much easier to increase usage, but it takes a long time to ramp up production. So, unless this is a permanent global recession, it is inevitable that the price of oil will go up significantly over the medium to long-term.”

Now, many skeptics will argue that if Peak Oil was real, the price of oil wouldn’t have dropped to roughly US$30 per barrel in last autumn’s stunning crash. Valid point; but let us not forget that the spectacular plunge occurred at a time when global economic activity virtually came to a standstill. Let us also keep in mind that last autumn’s crash in asset prices was caused by a total freeze in credit and the associated asset liquidation. Whilst I agree that the final action in crude oil’s parabolic blow-off last July smacked of speculation, I can assure you that speculation alone couldn’t have created a multi-year boom whereby the price of crude oil went up by almost 1500%! As you can see from Figure 1 above, supply clearly fell short of demand between 2005 and 2008, and this is why we had a magnificent bull-market in crude oil.

Make no mistake, global demand for liquid fuels will rise again – and if my homework is correct, supply won’t be able to keep up. If you ignore the noise and review hard data, you will observe that the vast majority of the world’s most prolific oil provinces are now past peak production and in a state of permanent depletion. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, out of the 54 oil producing nations and regions in the world, only 14 are still increasing production. Alarmingly, 30 oil producing nations and regions are definitely past their peak output and the remaining 10 appear to have modestly declining production rates. Put another way, when weighted by production, Peak Oil is already a grim reality in 61% of the oil producing world!

Still not convinced about Peak Oil? Then review Figure 2, which charts the expected combined flow rates for crude oil, lease condensates and Canadian Oil Sands. As you can see from the grey shaded area, production is about to decline by roughly 5 million barrels per day by 2012.

Figure 2: Has crude oil production peaked?

World Peak Oil Production

Source: The Oil Drum

Ironically, Figure 2 also plots the optimistic (almost laughable) forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its “World Energy Outlook 2008”. Interestingly, in last year’s “World Energy Outlook”, the IEA stated that in order to fulfill its optimistic projections, the world had to install 64 million barrels per day of new supply by 2030 or the equivalent of six times the Saudi Arabian output! Furthermore, the IEA declared that the energy industry had to invest hundreds of billions of dollars every year to achieve this favorable outcome.

Now, I can understand that the IEA is a government-funded agency so it has to paint a rosy picture, but it is ominous that the energy watchdog failed to mention where this surplus oil would come from!

Well, I guess you get the idea. Global crude oil production has probably peaked, new discoveries have dried up and there is a shortage of capital for investment purposes. Apart from these factors, if you believe the energy optimists, all is well in the energy industry and the price of oil is about to drop to zero!

After years of extensive research, I have no doubt in my mind that unless global demand stays weak forever, we will see supply shortages in the not too distant future. And before that occurs, the price of crude oil will stage an explosive rally. Accordingly, I suggest that all my readers allocate a large proportion of their investment portfolio to upstream energy companies and to businesses in the energy services sector.

Finally, in the energy complex, the price of natural gas is still scraping along its recent crash low and this is a fantastic long-term investment opportunity. As we approach winter in the Northern Hemisphere and heating demand picks up, we are likely to see a big rally in the price of natural gas. So, investors may want to allocate capital to this unbelievably inexpensive commodity.

Regards,

Puru Saxena
for The Daily Reckoning

About the author

Comments

23 Responses to “It’s All About Oil and The Economy……….”

  1. barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence du bassin hydraulique de tensift

    This is my expert

  2. barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence du bassin hydraulique de tensift

    barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence bassin hydraulique tensift

  3. barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence du bassin hydraulique de tensift

    barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence bassin hydraulique tensift

  4. barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence du bassin hydraulique de tensift

    barrage lalla takerkouste au maroc – agence bassin hydraulique tensift

  5. free pc game download

    download free software,software free,full version software Free,download free of charge,free computer game download,free android software,apk video games,all softwares

  6. هيئة المهندسين التجمعيين – corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

    corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

  7. هيئة المهندسين التجمعيين – corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

    This is my expert

  8. هيئة المهندسين التجمعيين – corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

    This is my expert

  9. هيئة المهندسين التجمعيين – corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

    corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

  10. parti du rni says:

    هيئة المهندسين التجمعيين – corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

    corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

  11. RNI MAROC says:

    هيئة المهندسين التجمعيين – corps des ingenieurs du parti du RNI

    This is my expert

  12. LE CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI EST UNE ORGANISATION SOCIO-PROFESSIONNELLE PARALLÈLE DU PARTI DU RASSEMBLEMENT NATIONAL DES INDÉPENDANTS, ELLE PREND SES POSITIONS EN COORDINATION AVEC LE BUREAU POLITIQUE DU PARTI

    Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

  13. INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC – Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

    le progrès et l’appropriation des valeurs universelles sont les seules armes contre les défis actuels et à venir.

  14. CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC – Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

    CORPS DES INGENIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC

  15. parti rni says:

    CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC – Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

    CORPS DES INGENIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC

  16. CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC – Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

    La citoyenneté est une attitude, un état d’esprit, la conviction émotionnelle que le tout est plus grand que la partie..

  17. CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC – Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

    le progrès et l’appropriation des valeurs universelles sont les seules armes contre les défis actuels et à venir.

  18. CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC – Diffusion d’une culture de responsabilité, d’engagement et de valeurs de citoyenneté

    CORPS DES INGENIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI AU MAROC

  19. …Links

    […]I like reading an article that will make men and women think. Also, many thanks for permitting me to comment![…]

  20. Trackback

    […]I am not positive where you are getting your info, however good topic.[…]

  21. rni says:

    UNE ORGANISATION SOCIO-PROFESSIONNELLE PARRALLELLE DU PARTI du RNI AU MAROC.

    CORPS DES INGENIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI

  22. LE CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS RNISTES VISE À DIFFUSER LES PRINCIPES ET LES IDÉES DU PARTI, ET À ATTIRER DE NOUVEAUX CADRES ET COMPÉTENCES ET LES INTÉGRER DANS LA VIE POLITIQUE, AINSI QUE LA CONTRIBUTION À L’ENRICHISSEMENT DES PROGRAMMES DU PARTI

    LE CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI EST UNE ORGANISATION SOCIO-PROFESSIONNELLE PARALLÈLE DU PARTI DU RASSEMBLEMENT NATIONAL DES INDÉPENDANTS, ELLE PREND SES POSITIONS EN COORDINATION AVEC LE BUREAU POLITIQUE DU PARTI

  23. parti du rni says:

    LE CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS RNISTES VISE À DIFFUSER LES PRINCIPES ET LES IDÉES DU PARTI, ET À ATTIRER DE NOUVEAUX CADRES ET COMPÉTENCES ET LES INTÉGRER DANS LA VIE POLITIQUE, AINSI QUE LA CONTRIBUTION À L’ENRICHISSEMENT DES PROGRAMMES DU PARTI

    LE CORPS DES INGÉNIEURS DU PARTI DU RNI EST UNE ORGANISATION SOCIO-PROFESSIONNELLE PARALLÈLE DU PARTI DU RASSEMBLEMENT NATIONAL DES INDÉPENDANTS, ELLE PREND SES POSITIONS EN COORDINATION AVEC LE BUREAU POLITIQUE DU PARTI

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Copyright © 2018 The Stated Truth