Our Only Question Is: Why Is This So Hard To Understand?

Posted By on November 3, 2011

Some sobering thoughts from Caroline Baum, author of “Just What I Said”.  She is a Bloomberg News columnist (the opinions expressed are her own).

Why is so much energy being directed, or misdirected, at housing? Wouldn’t those efforts be better spent charting a sound course for the overall economy rather than targeting a specific sector?

For starters, housing’s footprint is larger than its current 2.4 percent share of gross domestic product. Even at its recent peak in 2005, residential investment, as it’s known in the GDP accounts, made up only 6 percent of GDP, the highest since the 1970s when inflation was driving demand for real assets.

For most Americans, their home is their major store of wealth. The value of household real estate peaked in the fourth quarter of 2006 at $25 trillion, falling to $16.2 trillion in the second three months of this year, according to the Fed’s latest Flow of Funds report. A reverse wealth effect is depressing consumer sentiment and spending.

It’s also limiting mobility. Unemployed homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth can’t pick up and move to areas of the country where labor is in demand.

Finally, home purchases beget spending on big-ticket items, such as refrigerators, washing machines and furniture.

Between 1997 — when home-price appreciation started to outpace the consumer-price index — and the peak in 2006, the average price of an existing home rose about 125 percent, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Index. It was arguably the biggest real-estate bubble in history. I know of no law of nature, or finance, that allows for the reflating of a burst bubble. (Another asset class, yes; the same one, no.)

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