Gene Inger Gives Us His Opinions On Where Things Stand

Posted By on November 2, 2009

Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing . . . for Tuesday November 3, 2009:
 
 A waterfall decline . . .
 
Possibly the prospect of a heavier decline looming (irrespective of this technical fight, as well as psychological holding action purportedly merely awaiting the Fed decisions on Wednesday, which is actually what this is not primarily about), is such a cascading fear that nobody wants to talk about it. Unless of course you mean the top bankers at a hastily called meeting at the New York Fed this morning (ostensibly but hardly likely to have been about compensation); which I suspect is (for once) advance preparation for what may occur in-event the current PPT (Plunge Protection Team) is activated in response to market events that the honchos may already have an inkling are coming.
 
This is the first time since we thought the PPT would plug the dike last February/early March for awhile (to wit: orchestrated coordinated international intervention pending I thought, rightly so, at the time, rather than a plunge into the abyss), that we mention it at all. And not to panic anybody about the fact that toxic assets are hardly distributed, nor banking problems addressed properly. Like I said; I literally perceived it in visually in Bernanke’s eyes at his last speech; and statement about the banking ‘reforms’ that I thought were disingenuous (I like and respect Bernanke) self-serving ‘spin’ to his big bank constituents; or should I say obliquely on their behalf. That’s probably why Paul Volker walked off his interview late today on CNBC; because he knows this is really a non-starter with respect to resolving our mess, and he doesn’t want to close ranks so much with an Administration and Fed continuing to pursue a warped interpretation of Keynesian economics. But he signed-on to this group. They should listen to this elder statesman of economics, rather than asking him to embrace wrongheaded policies.
 
If you don’t think things are tough (too bad investors are misguided by so many once again into believing this is just a mild correction; not as bad as the bears anticipated; in the view of two well-known commentators; who are about to be hoisted once again by their own petards; and I actually hope they’re right; but seriously fear they are not); look at California. Now they want to add a 10% withholding on income tax above the norm (already about the highest in the Nation); but promise to give it back in April (of course). Americans are fed up; and though the stock market doesn’t show it much as of yet; just watch if what I fear comes to pass.
 
That takes us to the present. This is not about a simple FOMC meeting. This is not a simple ‘worry about interest rates’. Interest rates have virtually nothing to do with this. Sure; while rate shifts can impact the bond market in particular; and the low rates (as low as .65 annually on so-called ‘risk free’ CD’s at Bank of America, which is typical in terms of how the policies are trying to encourage investors to embrace risk in every way imaginable; rather than continue the sanctity of rebuilding their financial situation as remains generally damaged; and faces further prospects of deterioration if they go for the bait of believing that only shallow corrections are possible or all is ascending).
 
Besides calling for the actual top a couple weeks back (ideally by October 20th in the morning); we have done our best to call for the rebounds and downside probes in for sure what has been a contested slugfest for several days; but none of it is unusual. In an effort to garner attention that this was not going to be just another shakeout (just it should be noted how most label it to this day); we issued a ‘crash alert’ at the time, to make the point about ‘hording cash’ and having reserves so that whether the markets go completely haywire or not in the days or weeks ahead one is reasonably postured. That meant that conditions were deteriorating, rather than simply going to crash dive.
 
Yes, everyone is hoping the next ISM statement, followed by the Employment Report Friday, somehow saves the day. Actually they are expected to be decent; why not. In response to the money thrown (here or there) and the stabilization efforts they should be better (but not quantifiably significant; and especially not given market valuations). So don’t count on that; unless looking for more rallies to spike up to be sold into.
 
Conclusion: stabilization efforts notwithstanding; overall recession and deleveraging conditions will prevail (not may prevail) through this year, and probably into next year as well. Intervening rallies in markets will occur (some fairly wild), of limited duration. In event other developments unfold that could truly change prospects; we’ll evaluate.
                                                                           
                                                                            Gene Inger

            ******************************************************************************

Requisite disclaimer: Trading in securities of any type may not be suitable for all individuals. Futures or options entail risk and volatility, versus investments. In our view, futures or options aren’t investments, but speculations. Decisions are the sole responsibility, discretion and at risk of any trader. Our discussions, or guidelines, in stocks & futures, are structural for purpose of giving shape and flow to our analysis. Patterns should be considered as guidelines only; to compliment your own good judgment, or that of your financial advisor. Market and/or economic forecasts are intended to be of a general nature, and should not be taken directly as a recommendation to buy or sell referenced securities, debt instruments, or futures contracts. To consider doing so; consult your own broker or professional to determine suitability. No commentary is to be considered an offer to buy or sell securities. While we may own securities discussed, it’s our policy not to cloud our judgment (right or wrong) in-event we hold a position. We normally disclose holding a position.

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