Why The U.S. Growth Story Is A Dead Man Walking…..

Posted By on May 12, 2011

Here is a picture that explains everything.  For the U.S. to grow its way out of current problems, it will require monumental new debt creation….from which we are already buried!  But by the looks of things, most governments are going to try anyway. To put things in perspective, in order for the 2010 decade to mirror, match, or in any way resemble the prior four decades, the credit market debt will need to double from $52 trillion to $104 trillion. 

Question: So what does this all tell us….umm,  it creates the best possible case for Gold going dynamically higher and the Dollar going dynamically lower!

From ChrisMartenson.com

If we were to be given just one chart, by which we had to explain everything about why Bernanke’s printed efforts have so far failed to really cure anything and why we are pessimistic that further efforts will fall short, it is this one:

There’s a lot going on in this deceptively simple chart so let’s take it one step at a time. First, “Total Credit Market Debt” covers everything – financial sector debt, government debt (fed, state, local), household debt, and corporate debt – and is represented by the bold red line (data from the Federal Reserve). 

Next, if we start in January 1970 and ask the question, “How long before that debt doubled and then doubled again?” we find that debt has doubled five times in four decades (blue triangles).  

Then if we perform an exponential curve fit (blue line), we find a nearly perfect fit with an R2 of 0.99 when we round up. That means that debt has been growing in a nearly perfect exponential fashion through the 1970’s, the 1980’s, the 1990’s and the 2000’s. In order for the 2010 decade to mirror, match, or in any way resemble the prior four decades, credit market debt will need to double again from $52 trillion to $104 trillion. 

Finally, note that the most serious departure between the idealized exponential curve fit and the data occurred beginning in 2008 — and it has not yet even remotely begun to return to its former trajectory.

www.zerohedge.com

NHK Reports Fukushima Reactor 1 Is Melting Down

Posted By on May 12, 2011

Tick Tac Toe, three in a row……NHK Reports Fukushima Reactor 1 Is Melting Down.. Haven’t the cores of reactors 2 and 3 already melted down?  Uh, we think so…….

Following up on earlier reports that the fuel rods in reactor 1 were truly exposed, NHK now reports another speculation from long ago, finally confirmed by official sources, namely that the reactor is now melting down. NHK reports that “Tokyo Electric Power Company says the No.1 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is believed to be in a state of “meltdown”. The utility company said on Thursday that most of the fuel rods are likely to have melted and fallen to the bottom of the reactor. Earlier in the day, it found that the coolant water in the reactor is at a level which would completely expose nuclear fuel rods if they were in their normal position.

And from Reuters: “The finding makes it likely that at one point in the immediate wake of the disaster the 4-meter-high stack of uranium-rich rods at the core of the reactor had been entirely exposed to the air.

Eric Sprott Says Gold Is Now The World’s Reserve Currency, Says Silver Was Manipulated Lower

Posted By on May 12, 2011

Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management….. making headlines at SALT (Sky Bridge Alternatives  Conference) in Vegas:

  • SPROTT SAYS GOLD IS NOW THE WORLD’S RESERVE CURRENCY
  • SPROTT SAYS SILVER WAS `MANIPULATED’ DOWN IN PRICE
  • SPROTT SAYS PEOPLE IN IRELAND, GREECE ALREADY FLEEING BANKS
  • SPROTT SAYS SAVERS WILL FLEE BANKS TO PUT MONEY INTO GOLD

Here Are Some Tid Bits Out Of The SALT (Sky Bridge Alternatives Conference) In Las Vegas

Posted By on May 12, 2011

Among other things, Dinan says……“The lessons of ‘07 and ‘08 are totally forgotten,” Dinan warned. “The thinking that ‘I won’t be left behind when the music stops.’ That’s very dangerous thinking.”   Jamie Dinan, York Capital: Banks

  • Jamie Dinan, founder of $17 billion hedge fund York Capital Management LP, talks about financial stocks.
  • “The amount of capital banks will be required to hold, in addition to changing so many of their money making activities,” including spinning out their proprietary trading desks, will have a negative impact, he said.
  • “ROE is going down and there is nothing they can do.” He said bad loans were what hurt banks during the crisis and that regulators want them to continue making those loans, which he considers a “much less attractive business model.”
  • Dinan said Wednesday that the surge in credit markets in recent years suggests lessons from the financial crisis have been “totally forgotten.”
  • Junk-bond spreads are back to where they were during the previous credit boom, and Treasury bond yields are still very low, he said.
  • “There’s a lot of liquidity still on the sidelines. That money is seeping back into the market,” Dinan said.
  • “People are looking for yield because they’re sick of earning zero. They’re holding their nose to the risks,” he said, adding that credit spreads can’t tighten much more.
  • “The lessons of ‘07 and ‘08 are totally forgotten,” Dinan warned. “The thinking that ‘I won’t be left behind when the music stops.’ That’s very dangerous thinking.”

Falling Gas Demand

Posted By on May 12, 2011

Guess it’s starting to matter how much it costs to fill up all those old SUV’s still on the road………………..

U.S. demand for gasoline fell by the largest amount in seven weeks — a signal that consumers are conserving money as gas prices near a national average of $4 a gallon.

Mississippi River Flood Passes Record At Natchez

Posted By on May 11, 2011

So why do they call it the 100 year flood…..when it’s happened now 3 times (1927,1937 and 2011) in the last 84 years!

MEMPHIS/NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) – The swollen Mississippi River set a record high water level at Natchez, Mississippi, on Wednesday — 10 days before its expected crest in the southern city.

The level of the largest river in North America reached 58.48 feet at Natchez on Wednesday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service, above the record of 58.04 feet set in 1937. The river is expected to crest at 64 feet on May 21.

The flood, the result of a wet spring and huge snow melt from an unusually stormy winter, has caused evacuations of thousands of people along the river and its tributaries, swamping river towns and as many as 3 million acres of farmland in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas alone.

In Mississippi, residents were bracing for expected record crests at Vicksburg on May 19 and Natchez on May 21. Up to 5,000 Mississippi residents may be forced to evacuate, authorities said on Wednesday.

In Louisiana 3 million acres of farm and wetlands were at risk of flooding.In Mississippi, 16 casinos remain closed along the river and two more in Vicksburg were being monitored, said Allen Godfrey, deputy director of the Mississippi Gaming Commission.  The closures have put 13,000 employees temporarily out of work and will hurt local and state government tax revenues, which draw $19.7 million a month from casino boats.

Thunderstorms are also expected on Thursday night into Friday, which could bring another inch of rain into the area.

Natchez, about 135 miles north of New Orleans, was bracing for higher water in coming days. But so far, levees along the river were holding, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said.

The 2011 flood has been breaking or challenging records set during historic floods in 1927 and 1937.

Stock Market Trouble Dead Ahead……

Posted By on May 10, 2011

We’re seeing the warning signs now….

5-11-insider selling

www.ingerletter.com

A Look At The Governments U-6 Unemployment Rate

Posted By on May 10, 2011

So…..the U.S. has gone trillions, yes trillions of dollars in debt for what?  Uh….an economic recovery that has only matched inflation (yes we know, the government says there is no inflation), or let’s just call it an economy that has gone virtually nowhere.  And the only way to get more growth at this point is to add more and more debt. The derivative monster keeps getting bigger led by artificially low interest rates that will break governments around the world if they ever go up, and rest assured, eventually interest rates will have a run to the upside.  When, not if it blows, nobody but nobody will be expecting it.  That’s just how things work!

Here’s a look at the stubbornly high national unemployment rate. We’re talking about the “U-6” series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What is U-6? It is a data series that includes unemployed workers, as well as “underemployed” and “discouraged” workers. The stubbornly high U-6 unemployment number shows quite clearly that jobs have become hard to get.

As the chart below illustrates, the U-6 rate has been hovering in the 16% to 17% range for most of the last two years, despite massive, trillion-dollar “stimulus measures” by both the federal government (directly) and by the Federal Reserve (indirectly).

Under-Employment Rate vs. Federal Reserve Assets

www.thedailyreckoning.com

The American “Zombie Consumer” Generation

Posted By on May 9, 2011

The U.S. is in the midst of a “zombie consumer” generation that will dent GDP growth for years to come, according to Citi and Yale’s Stephen Roach (via The Globe and Mail).
 
And who is responsible for leading the sheep down this road, yep……good old uncle sam!

Speaking in Toronto, Roach said that the U.S. consumer “is toast,” and, as a result, GDP growth projections should be cut by 1% over the next 3-5 years.

Roach, who said late last year there was a 40% chance of a double-dip recession, says that he’s unwilling to let that possibility go.

From The Globe and Mail:

“I’m not prepared to turn in my stripes as a card-carrying double-dipper,” Mr. Roach says. “The lessons of centuries and centuries of financill history … make it very clear that post-crisis recoveries are weak. When they’re weak for a long period of time, they lack the cushion that economies normally need to withstand the blows of a shock. So I don’t think you can rule it out.”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-roach-zombie-consumer-2011-5#ixzz1LuiNEu38

Household Equity Broken Down Into Two Groups

Posted By on May 9, 2011

What this chart tells us is…..that household equity is 38.8% if we include all houses paid for and with a mortgage both combined in the mix…..but home equity for the sub group of “only houses with a mortgage, excluding paid for houses” is only 19.2%.

The Family Entitlement Plan

Posted By on May 9, 2011

Another interesting chart….are they lazy free loaders or just late bloomers? We’ll call them the un- motivated generation.

The FCC Says The United States Is Looking At A Spectrum Shortage By 2013!

Posted By on May 9, 2011

Interesting subject matter….exploding demand from smartphones will soon overwhelm the nation’s wireless capacity.  So, what’s the FCC’s plan to fix this imminent spectrum wipe out?   Something called “Incentive Auctions,” which lets the owners of old, under-used spectrum–TV and radio broadcast spectrum, for example–put the spectrum up for auction and get a portion of the proceeds.

This plan, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski says, will encourage companies to part with unused spectrum, and create more spectrum that can be used by wireless data providers. 

Most of he proceeds will go to….you guessed it, the U.S.Treasury!

According to the FCC, the United States is facing an imminent spectrum crisis, in which exploding demand from smartphones will soon overwhelm the nation’s wireless capacity.

The problem, the FCC says, is the lack of new spectrum being made available to wireless data carriers. Smartphone data traffic is growing so fast, the FCC says, that–if nothing is done–we will use up our available spectrum by 2013.   The problem won’t just affect iPhones, it will hobble Android, BlackBerry, Windows Phone 7, Palm, and all other smartphones, too.
 
Here are the charts:

Demand For Wireless Spectrum Is Exploding

Image: Federal Communications Commission


Less And Less Spectrum Is Being Auctioned Off

Image: Federal Communications Commission


 
Spectrum Deficit By 2013

Image: Federal Communications Commission

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/spectrum-crisis-2013-2011-5#ixzz1LuFz1bcd

Zillow Says 27 Percent Of U.S. Homeowners Now Have Negative Equity On Home, An All Time Record!

Posted By on May 9, 2011

Highlights from a new report from Zillow on real estate…………….The number of homes with negative equity rose to 27% or 16.2 million units in the first quarter from 13.1 million units a year earlier.  In the first quarter of 2009 only 22% of homes were underwater, Zillow said.  Home prices slumped 8.2 percent on average over the past 12 months.

Property values rose in only three of the 132 regions tracked by Zillow: Fort Myers, Florida, where they gained 2.4 percent; Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, up 0.8 percent; and Honolulu, up 0.3 percent.

The above chart shows the percentage of households that own a home.

More than 27 percent of U.S. homeowners owed more than their properties were worth in the first quarter as values fell the most since 2008, Zillow Inc. said today.

Homeowners with negative equity increased from 22 percent a year earlier as home prices slumped 8.2 percent over the past 12 months, the Seattle-based company said. About 28 percent of homes with mortgages were “underwater” in the fourth quarter, according to Zillow, which runs a website with property-value estimates and real-estate listings.

Home prices fell 3 percent in the first quarter and will drop as much as 9 percent this year as foreclosures spread and unemployment remains high, Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said. Prices won’t find a floor until 2012, he said.

“We get tired of telling such a grim story, but unfortunately this is the story that needs to be told,” Humphries said in a telephone interview. “Demand is still quite anemic due to unemployment and the fact that home values are still falling. And that tends to make people more cautious about buying.”

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9 percent in April, up from 8.8 percent in March, the Department of Labor reported May 6. Home prices have fallen almost 30 percent from their June 2006 peak, wiping out more than $10 trillion in equity, including $667.5 billion in the first quarter, Humphries said.

The number of homes with negative equity rose to 16.2 million in the first quarter from 13.1 million a year earlier, Zillow said.

Property values rose in only three of the 132 regions tracked by Zillow: Fort Myers, Florida, where they gained 2.4 percent; Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, up 0.8 percent; and Honolulu, up 0.3 percent.

The first quarter’s U.S. home price decline was the steepest since the fourth quarter of 2008, when prices fell 3.9 percent, according to Zillow data. Values dropped almost 13 percent over the course of that year.

Housing Market Dropping Hard Again….

Posted By on May 9, 2011

Some of the smartest guys we know, the ones that use their own money to buy and sell houses…are thinking 15%-20% further down from here and 2-4  years to clear huge stealth inventories.  They say the banks have just started to get more realistic on pricing of bank owned properties, and will become very aggressive to get real estate off the books over the next few years.

The average credit score on loans backed by Fannie Mae stood at 762 in the first quarter, up from an average of 718 for the 2001-2004 period….making it much tougher to get qualified for lower score holders.

From The Wall Street Journal……..

U.S. home values posted the largest decline in the first quarter since late 2008, prompting many economists to push back their estimates of when the housing market will hit a bottom.

Home values fell 3% in the first quarter from the previous quarter and 1.1% in March from the previous month, pushed down by an abundance of foreclosed homes on the market, according to data to be released Monday by real-estate website Zillow.com. Prices have now fallen for 57 consecutive months, according to Zillow.

Last year, the housing market showed signs of improving as price depreciation slowed in some markets and stabilized in others. In response, a number of economists began forecasting that housing would hit a bottom in late 2011, then begin to recover. But the improvements, spurred by federal programs that gave buyers up to $8,000 in tax credits, proved fleeting. Sales collapsed when the credits expired last summer, and prices in many markets have been falling ever since.

According to the Zillow index, a handful of California markets and Washington, D.C., saw price appreciation last year, but that has since reversed. Mr. Humphries attributes the “double dip” in those markets, which include Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego, to the way in which the tax credit stimulated demand from buyers. When the tax credit went away, markets were left with rising supply from foreclosures but with less demand from buyers.

Detroit, Chicago and Minneapolis posted the largest declines during the first quarter of the top 25 metro areas tracked by Zillow, while Pittsburgh, Dallas and Washington posted the smallest declines.

To be sure, steep declines in home prices along with mortgage rates near their lowest levels in decades have helped make housing more affordable than at any time in the past 30 years, according to Zillow. Markets that have lower levels of foreclosures, such as Dallas, and those with better job-growth prospects, such as Washington, are faring better.

However, credit standards remain tight, posing another challenge for the housing market. Just as many unqualified borrowers received loans during the boom, “there are people today who probably could afford loans but can’t get them,” says David Berson, chief economist at PMI Group Inc. The average credit score on loans backed by Fannie Mae stood at 762 in the first quarter, up from an average of 718 for the 2001-2004 period.

Full Barack Obama “60 Minutes” Interview And Complete Transcript

Posted By on May 8, 2011

President Obama speaks on the secret operation to take out Bin Laden….President Obama: We know he was there at least five years.  The fact of the matter is, you will not see bin Laden walkin’ on this earth again.  As nervous as I was about this whole process, the one thing I didn’t lose sleep over was the possibility of taking bin Laden out. Justice was done. And I think that anyone who would question that the perpetrator of mass murder on American soil didn’t deserve what he got needs to have their head examined.

On Wednesday, May 4, 2011 – three days after he announced that American troops had killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan – President Barack Obama talked with “60 Minutes” correspondent Steve Kroft in the Roosevelt Room of the White House. Below is a transcript of that interview, as well as the full interview.

STEVE KROFT: Mr. President, was this the most satisfying week of your Presidency?

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: Well, it was certainly one of the most satisfying weeks not only for my Presidency, but I think for the United States since I’ve been President. Obviously bin Laden had been not only a symbol of terrorism, but a mass murderer who’s had eluded justice for so long, and so many families who have been affected I think had given up hope.

And for us to be able to definitively say, “We got the man who caused thousands of deaths here in the United States and who had been the rallying point for a violent extremist jihad around the world” was something that I think all of us were profoundly grateful to be a part of.

KROFT: Was the decision to launch this attack the most difficult decision that you’ve made as Commander-In-Chief?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Certainly one. You know, every time I send young men and women into a war theatre, that’s a tough decision. And, you know, whenever you go to Walter Reed [Army Medical Center] or Bethesda [Naval Hospital] and you see the price that our young people pay to keep this country safe, that’s a tough decision. Whenever you write a letter to a family who’s lost a loved one. It’s sobering.

This was a very difficult decision, in part because the evidence that we had was not absolutely conclusive. This was circumstantial evidence that he was gonna be there. Obviously it entailed enormous risk to the guys that I sent in there. But ultimately I had so much confidence in the capacity of our guys to carry out the mission that I felt that the risks were outweighed by the potential benefit of us finally getting our man.

KROFT: When the CIA first brought this information to you . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Right.

KROFT: What was your reaction? Was there a sense of excitement? Did this look promising from the very beginning?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: It did look promising from the beginning. Keep in mind that obviously when I was still campaigning for President, I had said that if I ever get a shot at bin Laden we’re gonna take it. And that was subject to some criticism at the time, because I had said if it’s in Pakistan and, you know, we don’t have the ability to capture ’em in any other way, then we’re gonna go ahead and take the shot. So I felt very strongly that there was a strategic imperative for us to go after him.

Shortly after I got into office, I brought [CIA director] Leon Panetta privately into the Oval Office and I said to him, “We need to redouble our efforts in hunting bin Laden down. And I want us to start putting more resources, more focus, and more urgency into that mission.”

Leon took that to the CIA. They had been working steadily on this since 2001, obviously. And there were a range of threads that were out there that hadn’t quite been pulled all together. They did an incredible job during the course of a year and a half to pull on a number of these threads until we were able to identify a courier who was known to be a bin Laden associate, to be able to track them to this compound.

So by the time they came to me they had worked up an image of the compound, where it was and the factors that led them to conclude that this was the best evidence that we had regarding bin Laden’s whereabouts since Tora Bora.

But we didn’t have a photograph of bin Laden in that building. There was no direct evidence of his presence. And so the CIA continued to build the case meticulously over the course of several months. What I told them when they first came to me with this evidence was: “Even as you guys are building a stronger intelligence case, let’s also start building an action plan to figure out if in fact we make a decision that this is him or we’ve got a good chance that we’ve got him, how are we gonna deal with him? How can we get at that?”

And so at that point you probably had unprecedented cooperation between the CIA and our military in starting to shape an action plan that ultimately resulted in success this week.

KROFT: When was that when you set that plan in motion?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, they first came to me in August of last year with evidence of the compound. And they said that they had more work to do on it, but at that point they had enough that they felt that it was appropriate for us to start doing some planning. And so from that point on we started looking at the time what our options might be.

The vigorous planning did not begin until early this year. And obviously over the last two months it’s been very intensive in which not only did an action plan get developed, but our guys actually started practicing being able to execute.

KROFT: How actively were you involved in that process?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: About as active as any project that I’ve been involved with since I’ve been President.

Obviously we have extraordinary guys. Our Special Forces are the best of the best. And so I was not involved in designing the initial plan. But each iteration of that plan they’d bring back to me. Make a full presentation. We would ask questions.

We had multiple meetings in the Situation Room in which we would map out — and we would actually have a model of the compound and discuss how this operation might proceed, and what various options there were because there was more than one way in which we might go about this.

And in some ways sending in choppers and actually puttin’ our guys on the ground entailed some greater risks than some other options. I thought it was important, though, for us to be able to say that we’d definitely got the guy. We thought that it was important for us to be able to exploit potential information that was on the ground in the compound if it did turn out to be him.

We thought that it was important for us not only to protect the lives of our guys, but also to try to minimize collateral damage in the region because this was in a residential neighborhood. I mean one of the ironies of this is, you know, I think the image that bin Laden had tried to promote was that he was an ascetic, living in a cave. This guy was living in a million dollar compound in a residential neighborhood.

KROFT: Were you surprised when they came to you with this compound right in the middle of sort of the military center of Pakistan?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, I think that there had been discussions that this guy might be hiding in plain sight. And we knew that some al Qaeda operatives, high level targets basically, just blended into the crowd like this.

I think we where surprised when we learned that this compound had been there for five or six years, and that it was in an area in which you would think that potentially he would attract some attention. So yes, the answer is that we were surprised that he could maintain a compound like that for that long without there being a tip off.

KROFT: Do you believe it was built for him?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: We are still investigating that, but what is clear is that the elements of the compound were structured so that nobody could see in. There were no sight lines that would enable somebody walking by or somebody in an adjoining building to see him. So it was clearly designed to make sure that bin Laden was protected from public view.

KROFT: Do you have any idea how long he was there?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: We know he was there at least five years.

KROFT: Five years?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah.

KROFT: Did he move out of that compound?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: That we don’t know yet. But we know that for five to six years this compound was there, and our belief is that he was there during that time.

KROFT: What was the most difficult part? I mean you had to decide. This was your decision — whether to proceed or not and how to proceed. What was the most difficult part of that decision?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: The most difficult part is always the fact that you’re sending guys into harm’s way. And there are a lot of things that could go wrong. I mean there’re a lot of moving parts here. So my biggest concern was, if I’m sending those guys in and Murphy’s Law applies and somethin’ happens, can we still get our guys out? So that’s point number one.

Point number two, these guys are goin’ in in, you know, the darkest of night. And they don’t know what they’re gonna find there. They don’t know if the building is rigged. They don’t know if, you know, there are explosives that are triggered by a particular door opening. So huge risks that these guys are taking.

And so my number one concern was: if I send them in, can I get them out? And a lot of the discussion we had during the course of planning was how do we make sure there’s backup? How do we make sure that there’s redundancy built into the plan so that we have the best chance of getting our guys out? That’s point number one.

Point number two was: as outstanding a job as our intelligence teams did — and I cannot praise them enough they did an extraordinary job with just the slenderest of bits of information to piece this all together — at the end of the day, this was still a 55/45 situation. I mean, we could not say definitively that bin Laden was there. Had he not been there, then there would have been significant consequences.

Obviously, we’re going into the sovereign territory of another country and landing helicopters and conducting a military operation. And so if it turns out that it’s a wealthy, you know, prince from Dubai who’s in this compound, and, you know, we’ve spent Special Forces in — we’ve got problems. So there were risks involved geopolitically in making the decision.

But my number one concern was: can our guys get in and get out safely. The fact that our Special Forces have become so good — these guys perform at levels that 20, 30 years ago would not have happened — I think finally gave me the confidence to say, “Let’s go ahead.” I think that the American people have some sense of how good these guys are, but until you actually see ’em and meet them, it’s hard to describe how courageous, how tough, how skilled, how precise they are. And it was because of their skills that I ended up having confidence to make the decision.

KROFT: I mean it’s been reported that there was some resistance from advisors and planners who disagreed with the commando raid approach. Was it difficult for you to overcome that? And what level of confidence did you have?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know one of the things that we’ve done here is to build a team that is collegial and where everybody speaks their mind. And there’s not a lot of snipin’ or back-biting after the fact. And what I’ve tried to do is make sure that every time I sit down in the situation room, every one of my advisors around there knows I expect them to give me their best assessments.

And so the fact that there were some who voiced doubts about this approach was invaluable, because it meant the plan was sharper, it meant that we had thought through all of our options, it meant that when I finally did make the decision, I was making it based on the very best information.

But as I said, you know, there were sufficient risks involved where it wasn’t as if any of the folks who were voicing doubts were voicing somethin’ that I wasn’t already runnin’ through in my own head. You know, we understood that there were some significant risks involved in this.

KROFT: How much did some of the past failures, like the Iran hostage rescue attempt, how did that weigh on you? I mean . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I thought about that.

KROFT: . . . was that a factor?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Absolutely. Absolutely. No, I mean you think about Black Hawk Down. You think about what happened with the Iranian rescue. And it, you know, I am very sympathetic to the situation for other Presidents where you make a decision, you’re making your best call, your best shot, and something goes wrong — because these are tough, complicated operations. And yeah, absolutely. The day before I was thinkin’ about this quite a bit.

KROFT: It sounds like you made a decision that you could accept failure. You didn’t want failure but after looking at . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah

KROFT: . . . the 55/45 thing that you mentioned, you must have at some point concluded that the advantages outweighed the risks . . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I concluded that it was worth it. And the reason that I concluded it was worth it was that we have devoted enormous blood and treasure in fighting back against al Qaeda. Ever since 2001. And even before with the embassy bombing in Kenya.

And so part of what was in my mind was all those young men that I visited who are still fighting in Afghanistan. And the families of victims of terrorism that I talk to. And I said to myself that if we have a good chance of not completely defeating but badly disabling al Qaeda, then it was worth both the political risks as well as the risks to our men.

KROFT: How much of it was gut instinct? Did you have personal feelings about whether . . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, the thing

KROFT: . . . he was there?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: The thing about gut instinct is if it works, then you think, “Boy, I had good instincts.” If it doesn’t, then you’re gonna be running back in your mind all the things that told you maybe you shouldn’t have done it. Obviously I had enough of an instinct that we could be right, but it was worth doing.

KROFT: After you made the decision to go ahead, you had like this incredible weekend where you were you surveyed the tornado damage in Alabama.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Right.

KROFT: You took your family to the shuttle launch and met with people down there. With Gabby . . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: With Gabby . . . .

KROFT: . . . Giffords.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Giffords, yeah.

KROFT: You attended the White House Association dinner. There was a commencement address. And this was all going on, I mean you knew what was gonna happen.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah. Yeah. The decision was made. I made the decision Thursday night, informed my team Friday morning, and then we flew off to look at the tornado damage. To go to Cape Canaveral, to make a speech, a commencement speech. And then we had the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday night. So this was in the back of my mind all weekend.

KROFT: Just the back?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Middle, front.

KROFT: Was it hard keeping your focus?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yes. Yeah.

KROFT: Did you have to suppress the urge to tell someone? Did you wanna tell somebody? Did you wanna tell Michelle? Did you tell Michelle?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know one of the great successes of this operation was that we were able to keep this thing secret. And it’s a testimony to how seriously everybody took this operation and the understanding that any leak could end up not only compromising the mission, but killing some of the guys that we were sending in there.

And so very few people in the White House knew. The vast majority of my most senior aides did not know that we were doing this. And you know, there were times where you wanted to go around and talk this through with some more folks. And that just wasn’t an option.

And during the course of the weekend, you know, there was no doubt that this was weighin’ on me. But, you know, something I said during the campaign that I’ve learned over and over again in this job is the Presidency requires you to do more than one thing at a time. And it is important for you to be able to focus on somethin’ that matters deeply to you, but still be able to do the things on a daily basis that are makin’ a difference in people’s lives.

KROFT: I want to go to the Situation Room. What was the mood?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Tense.

KROFT: People talking?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah, but doing a lot of listening as well, ’cause we were able to monitor the situation in real time. Getting reports back from Bill McRaven, the head of our special forces operations, as well as Leon Panetta. And you know, there were big chunks of time in which all we were doin’ was just waiting. And it was the longest 40 minutes of my life with the possible exception of when Sasha got meningitis when she was three months old, and I was waiting for the doctor to tell me that she was all right. It was a very tense situation.

KROFT: Were you nervous?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yes.

KROFT: What could you see?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: As I said, we were monitoring the situation. And we knew as events unfolded what was happening in and around the compound, but we could not get information clearly about what was happening inside the compound.

KROFT: Right. And that went on for a long time? Could you hear gunfire?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: We had a sense of when gunfire and explosions took place.

KROFT: Flashes?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah. And we also knew when one of the helicopters went down in a way that wasn’t according to plan. And, as you might imagine that made us more tense.

KROFT: So it got off to a bad start?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, it did not go exactly according to planned, but this is exactly where all the work that had been done anticipating what might go wrong made a huge difference.

KROFT: There was a backup plan?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: There was a backup plan.

KROFT: You had to blow up some walls?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: We had to blow up some walls.

KROFT: When was the first indication you got that you had found the right place? That bin Laden was in there?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: There was a point before folks had left, before we had gotten everybody back on the helicopter and were flying back to base, where they said Geronimo has been killed. And Geronimo was the code name for bin Laden. And now obviously at that point these guys were operating in the dark with all kinds of stuff going on so everybody was cautious. But at that point cautiously optimistic.

KROFT: What was your reaction when you heard those words?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I was relieved and I wanted to make sure those guys got over the Pakistan border and landed safely. And I think deeply proud and deeply satisfied of my team.

KROFT: When did you start to feel comfortable that bin Laden had been killed?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: When they landed we had very strong confirmation at that point that it was him. Photographs had been taken. Facial analysis indicated that in fact it was him. We hadn’t yet done DNA testing, but at that point we were 95 percent sure.

KROFT: Did you see the pictures?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yes.

KROFT: What was your reaction when you saw them?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: It was him.

KROFT: Why haven’t you released them?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, we discussed this internally. Keep in mind that we are absolutely certain this was him. We’ve done DNA sampling and testing. And so there is no doubt that we killed Osama bin Laden. It is important for us to make sure that very graphic photos of somebody who was shot in the head are not floating around as an incitement to additional violence. As a propaganda tool.

You know, that’s not who we are. You know, we don’t trot out this stuff as trophies. You know, the fact of the matter is this was somebody who was deserving of the justice that he received. And I think Americans and people around the world are glad that he’s gone. But we don’t need to spike the football. And I think that given the graphic nature of these photos, it would create some national security risk. And I’ve discussed this with Bob Gates and Hillary Clinton and my intelligence teams and they all agree.

KROFT: There are people in Pakistan, for example, who say, “Look, this is all a lie. This is another American trick. Osama’s not dead.”

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, the truth is that – and we’re monitoring worldwide reaction — there’s no doubt that bin Laden is dead. Certainly there’s no doubt among al Qaeda members that he is dead. And so we don’t think that a photograph in and of itself is gonna make any difference. There are gonna be some folks who deny it. The fact of the matter is, you will not see bin Laden walkin’ on this earth again.

KROFT: Was it your decision to bury him at sea?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: It was a joint decision. We thought it was important to think through ahead of time how we would dispose of the body if he were killed in the compound. And I think that what we tried to do was, consulting with experts in Islamic law and ritual, to find something that was appropriate that was respectful of the body.

Frankly we took more care on this than, obviously, bin Laden took when he killed 3,000 people. He didn’t have much regard for how they were treated and desecrated. But that, again, is somethin’ that makes us different. And I think we handled it appropriately.

KROFT: When the mission was over . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Uh-huh.

KROFT: . . . and you walked out of the situation room . . . .

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah.

KROFT: . . . what did you do? What was the first thing you did?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah, I think I walked up with my team, and I just said, “We got him.” And I expressed my profound gratitude and pride to the team that had worked on this.

I mean keep in mind this is something, first of all, that that wasn’t just our doing. Obviously since 2001, countless folks in our intelligence community and our military had worked on this issue. President Bush had obviously devoted a lot of resources to this, and so there was a cumulative effort and a testament to the capacity of the United States of America to follow through. And to do what we said we’re gonna do. Even across administrations, across party lines and the skill with which our intelligence and military folks operated in this was indescribable.

So it was a moment of great pride for me to see our capacity as a nation to execute something this difficult this well. And obviously, it also made me think about those families that I had met previously who had been so profoundly burdened by the fact that he was still runnin’ around out there.

You know, I got a letter the day after, an e-mail from a young person who had spoken to her dad when she was four years old before the towers collapsed, he was he was in the building. And she described what it had been like for the last ten years growing up, always having that image of her father’s — the sound of her father’s voice, and thinking that she’d never see him again, and watching her mother weep on the phone. And that’s what I thought about.

KROFT: When you announced that bin Laden had been killed last Sunday, you said “Our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden in the compound where he was hiding.” Can you be more specific on that, and how much help did Pakistan actually provide in getting rid of bin Laden.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, I’ve gotta be careful about sources and methods and how we operate and how we pieced together this intelligence, because we’re gonna still be goin’ after terrorists in the future.

What I can say is that Pakistan, since 9/11, has been a strong counterterrorism partner with us. There have been times where we’ve had disagreements. There have been times where we wanted to push harder, and for various concerns, they might have hesitated. And those differences are real. And they’ll continue.

But the fact of the matter is, is that we’ve been able to kill more terrorists on Pakistani soil than just about any place else. We could not have done that without Pakistani cooperation. And I think that this will be an important moment in which Pakistan and the United States gets together and says, “All right, we’ve gotten bin Laden, but we’ve got more work to do. And are there ways for us to work more effectively together than we have in the past?”

And that’s gonna be important for our national security. It doesn’t mean that there aren’t gonna be times where we’re gonna be frustrated with Pakistanis. And frankly, there are gonna be times where they’re frustrated with us. You know, they’ve got not only individual terrorists there, but there’s also a climate inside of Pakistan that sometimes is deeply anti-American. And it makes it more difficult for us to be able to operate there effectively.

But I do think that it’s important for the American people to understand that we’ve got a stake in continuing cooperation from Pakistan on these issues.

KROFT: You didn’t tell anybody in the Pakistani government or the military.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: No.

KROFT: Or their intelligence community?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: No.

KROFT: Because you didn’t trust?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: As I said, I didn’t tell most people here in the White House. I didn’t tell my own family. It was that important for us to maintain operational security.

KROFT: But you were carrying out this operation in Pakistan.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah.

KROFT: You didn’t trust ’em?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: If I’m not revealing to some of my closest aides what we’re doin’, then I sure as heck am not gonna be revealing it to folks who I don’t know.

KROFT: Right. Now the location of this house, the location of the compound just raises all sorts of questions.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Uh-huh.

KROFT: Do you believe people in the Pakistani government, Pakistani intelligence agencies knew that bin Laden was living there?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: We think that there had to be some sort of support network for bin Laden inside of Pakistan. But we don’t know who or what that support network was. We don’t know whether there might have been some people inside of government, people outside of government, and that’s something that we have to investigate, and more importantly, the Pakistani government has to investigate.

And we’ve already communicated to them, and they have indicated they have a profound interest in finding out what kinds of support networks bin Laden might have had. But these are questions that we’re not gonna be able to answer three or four days after the event. It’s gonna take some time for us to be able to exploit the intelligence that we were able to gather on site.

And I just want the American people to think about this. These guys, our guys, go in in the dead of night, it’s pitch black, they’re takin’ out walls, false doors, gettin’ shot at, they killed bin Laden, and they had the presence of mind to still gather up a whole bunch of bin Laden’s material which will be a treasure trove of information that could serve us very well in the weeks and months to come. It’s just an indication of the extraordinary work that they did.

KROFT: Do you have any sense of what they found there?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: We are now obviously putting everything we’ve got into analyzing and evaluatin’ all that information. But we anticipate that it can give us leads to other terrorists that we’ve been lookin’ for for a long time, other high value targets. But also can give us a better sense of existing plots that might have been there how they operated and their methods of communicating.

All of this should help us continue to push harder and harder. And one of the things that I said when I came into office was we had to remember what our primary focus was. Who carried out September 11th and how do we make sure that we are laser-focused on getting them.

We have done a great job even before we got bin Laden in degrading their capacity. And we now have the opportunity, we’re not done yet, but we’ve got the opportunity, I think, to really finally defeat at least Al Qaeda in that border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That doesn’t mean that we will defeat terrorism. It doesn’t mean that Al Qaeda hasn’t metastasized to other parts of the world where we’ve gotta, you know, address operatives there. But it does mean we’ve got a chance to, I think, really deliver a fatal blow to this organization, if we follow through aggressively in the months to come.

KROFT: Is this the first time that you’ve ever ordered someone killed?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, keep in mind that, you know, every time I make a decision about launching a missile, every time I make a decision about sending troops into battle, you know, I understand that this will result in people being killed. And that is a sobering fact. But it is one that comes with the job.

KROFT: This was one man. This is somebody who’s cast a shadow in this place, in the White House for almost a decade.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Right.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: As nervous as I was about this whole process, the one thing I didn’t lose sleep over was the possibility of taking bin Laden out. Justice was done. And I think that anyone who would question that the perpetrator of mass murder on American soil didn’t deserve what he got needs to have their head examined.

2,500 Posts Here At The Stated Truth……………

Posted By on May 6, 2011

We just posted out 2,500’th post on www.thestatedtruth.com                  Thanks for coming on by!

Top 10 Cities For Job Seekers In 2011

Posted By on May 6, 2011

The nation’s capital continues to head a list of the top cities for finding work. The rankings are based on the latest job market competition ratings from www.Indeed.com.

The ratings compare the number of people looking for work with the number of advertised positions in a given area. Here are the 10 cities with the most favorable ratios of job hunters to job openings:        

 1. Washington, D.C.
 2. Baltimore, Md.
 3. San Jose, Calif.
 4. New York, N.Y.
 5. Cleveland, Ohio
 6. Boston, Mass.
 7. Milwaukee, Wis.
 8. San Francisco, Calif.
 9. Hartford, Conn.
10.Austin, Texas
               Source: Indeed.com

Obama Administration Floats Draft Plan To Tax Cars By The Mile

Posted By on May 5, 2011

This from The Hill……If it isn’t a plan, then why float it!  Among other things, CBO suggested that a vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax could be tracked by installing electronic equipment on each car to determine how many miles were driven; payment could take place electronically at filling stations.

The Obama administration has floated a transportation authorization bill that would require the study and implementation of a plan to tax automobile drivers based on how many miles they drive.

The plan is a part of the administration’s Transportation Opportunities Act, an undated draft of which was obtained this week by Transportation Weekly.

The White House, however, said the bill is only an early draft that was not formally circulated within the administration.

“This is not an administration proposal,” White House spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said. “This is not a bill supported by the administration. This was an early working draft proposal that was never formally circulated within the administration, does not taken into account the advice of the president’s senior advisers, economic team or Cabinet officials, and does not represent the views of the president.”

The draft bill says the “study framework” for the project and a public awareness communications plan should be established within two years of creating the office, and that field tests should begin within four years.

The office would be required to consider four factors in field trials: the capability of states to enforce payment, the reliability of technology, administrative costs and “user acceptance.” The draft does not specify where field trials should begin.

Bin Laden Evidence Trove From Department Of Homeland Security

Posted By on May 5, 2011

Interesting to say the least!

Watch ABC News’ full report on the bin Laden evidence trove tonight on “World News With Diane Sawyer”.

A new bulletin issued tonight by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security and obtained by ABC News describes the terror organization’s chilling desire to derail a train.

“As of February 2010, al-Qa’ida was allegedly contemplating conducting an operation against trains at an unspecified location in the United States on the 10th anniversary of September 11, 2001,” the document reads, using an alternate spelling for bin Laden’s terror group. “As one option, al-Qa’ida was looking into trying to tip a train by tampering with the rails so that the train would fall off the track at either a valley or a bridge.”

In a statement, DHS press secretary Matt Chandler stressed that the message it sent out to its rail partners about a potential al Qaeda plot was “based on initial reporting, which is often misleading and inaccurate and subject to change. We remain at a heightened state of vigilance, but do not intend to issue [a National Terrorism Advisory System] alert at this time.” Chandler said the Transportation Security Administration would also send a bulletin to its rail sector stakeholders.

“We have no information of any imminent terrorist threat to the U.S. rail sector, but wanted to make our partners aware of the alleged plotting,” said Chandler.

Chandler said that since Sunday, DHS had taken “a number of actions,” including adding additional officers at airports and reviewing protective measures for potential terror targets.

The information on a potential rail attack was among a variety of conerns being shared with Homeland Security and regional authorities, and it was not yet known what other soft targets might have considered.

According to former White House counterterrorism advisor and ABC News consultant Richard Clarke, the fact that such proposals were discovered in bin Laden’s possession shows how integral he still appeared to be to terror plots.

The evidence appears to confirm that Bin Laden still had a role in approving al Qaeda plots, just he did for the 9/11 terror attack.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin-laden-evidence-al-qaeda-considered-911/story?id=13536789

Houses May Be Down For 10 Or Maybe Even 15 Years…Here Is Why

Posted By on May 4, 2011

This long down period makes sense….everybody is hoping for the best, but demographics and many other things point to a very negative period ahead for real estate.

Can Americans cope with a 10 to 15 year bear market in real estate?  On this front there is good news, and bad news.  The bad news is that we are likely to face at least a 10 year bear market in real estate thanks to a lost decade in household income and the continued erosion of the middle class.  Home prices can only reflect the underlying income of households paying the mortgage.  Clearly with record foreclosures many cannot accomplish this financial Herculean task.  The good news is we are already 5 years into this correction (so either we are half way or one third closer to a bottom).  For the United States this is a new experience because we have never seen an annual drop in home prices on a nationwide basis outside of the current crisis.  People point to the Federal Reserve as the knight in bailout armor for housing but look how far that has gotten us in the four years since the crisis started.  It is safe to say that home prices will face a 10 to 15 year bear market so let us examine the details carefully.

Case Shiller reaching new lows

case shiller index

Don’t look now but home prices have fallen by 3 percent (-3.3 percent to be exact) on an annualized basis.  This might not mean much to some but keep in mind we are talking about an asset class that has a track record of never reporting one negative year for multiple decades (that is until the recent housing bubble occurred).  What is more disturbing is we are reaching new lows and the peak was reached back in 2006.  To regain the 2006 peak home prices would need to rise by a stunning 45 percent.  How likely is that with stagnant income growth and mortgage rates at rock bottom levels?  The Fed is running out of ammunition here and this story has already taken place in history and not too long ago.

Japan had a massive housing bubble with too big to fail banks where the Bank of Japan jumped in and bailed out the financial sector.  These banks failed to recognize their losses and the banking and real estate industries turned out to be a superb drag on the Japanese economy.  Sound familiar?  Of course some will point to the low unemployment in Japan as a sign of good times.  However, 1 out of 3 workers in Japan work in what is considered a contract basis where they are assured no worker protections.  This is similar to our part-time workers who would like full-time employment but are unable to find a spot.

Japan boom and bust

Let us first count the ways how we are similar with Japan:

1.  Massive real estate boom and bust

2.  Intervention by central bank to bail out banking sector

3.  Enormous government spending and debt

4.  Big liabilities thanks to demographic shifts

Clearly there are substantial differences between the two countries.  But it is obvious that the real estate bubble bursting has been a drag on the Japanese economy.  The bailed out industries have served as a drag on the economy.  If you look at the above chart, real estate prices dove into a 15 year bear market and overall home prices have not even come remotely close to their former peak price.  The banking industry is following a similar model with our Federal Reserve injecting massive liquidity into the too big to fail banks.  Just look at this brief overview of what occurred:

“(Wikipedia) Quantitative easing was used unsuccessfully by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to fight domestic deflation in the early 2000s.[8][14][15][16] The Bank of Japan has maintained short-term interest rates at close to zero since 1999. With quantitative easing, it flooded commercial banks with excess liquidity to promote private lending, leaving them with large stocks of excess reserves, and therefore little risk of a liquidity shortage.[17] The BOJ accomplished this by buying more government bonds than would be required to set the interest rate to zero. It also bought asset-backed securities and equities, and extended the terms of its commercial paper purchasing operation.”

Now take a look at this chart for our banks:

excess reserves

The fact that housing prices are still moving lower and wage pressure on the downside is still prominent, it is likely that we have many more years ahead of a weak housing market.  One point to make with say food or oil and their rising prices is that we have a falling dollar thanks to this spending but also the ease of shipping these items around the world.  You cannot ship housing around the world.  It is a local good.  People in the nearby area will have to live in the place.  Sure you have a small fraction of homes used as vacation or second homes but this is tiny.  There is no exporting a home in Florida to Japan.

The wage question

real-wages

This is probably the biggest reason why home prices will see a 10 to 15 year bear market and it revolves around household wages.  The 1970s saw real household income grow by 4.5 percent.  The 1980s saw it grow by 6.5 percent.  The 1990s saw it jump by 8.5 percent.  The last decade of the 2000s saw it drop by 5 percent.  The above chart shows the reality of the middle class hitting an income wall.  As more jobs are added in lower paying sectors, it is a reality that home prices have to be cheaper to accommodate this new reality.

The Federal Reserve has done nothing innovative to help the American people.  It merely has saved the too big to fail banks and their bad real estate dealings on the backs of the American people.  The Bank of Japan did the same to the Japanese people and their economy is reflecting this poorly done policy.  Instead of dealing with the problem head on the Fed has made it worse for the majority of the population.  Home prices need to be cheaper because unfortunately Americans are making less.  Who benefits by keeping home prices inflated and wages going lower?  I know many have a hard time seeing a 10 to 15 year American housing bear market but we are already half way there.  Those who fail to listen to history are doomed to repeat it.

More at: www.mybudget360.com

Nearly Half Of The Population Of Detroit Can’t Read!

Posted By on May 4, 2011

Not surprisd……

DETROIT (WWJ) – According to a new report, 47 percent of Detroiters are  ”functionally illiterate.” The alarming new statistics were released by the Detroit Regional Workforce Fund on Wednesday.

Panetta: Public Likely To See Osama ben Laden Picture

Posted By on May 3, 2011

Here is a must rerad transcript with  “NBC Nightly News” anchor and managing editor Brian Williams interviewing CIA director Leon Panetta……courtousy of TIME Magazine online.   This interview will air tonight on “NBC Nightly News.”

CIA director tells NBC’s Brian Williams there wasn’t question that image would “ultimately” be released.

More, on Gaddafi, Pakistan’s involvement in operation and interrogation here.

NEW YORK, NY – May 3, 2011 – “NBC Nightly News” anchor and managing editor Brian Williams today spoke with Leon Panetta, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and nominee to be the next Secretary of Defense. The interview will air tonight on “NBC Nightly News.”


On release of a photograph depicting Osama bin Laden’s death:

LEON PANETTA: The government obviously has been talking about how best to do this, but I don’t think there was any question that ultimately a photograph would be presented to the public.

On rules of engagement:

BRIAN WILLIAMS: Did the President’s order read capture or kill or both or just one of those?
LEON PANETTA: The authorities we have on Bin Laden are to kill him. And that was made clear. But it was also, as part of their rules of engagement, if he suddenly put up his hands and offered to be captured, then– they would have the opportunity, obviously, to capture him. But that opportunity never developed.

On Pakistani involvement:
BRIAN WILLIAMS: What did the Pakistanis know and when did they know it?
LEON PANETTA: The Pakistanis did not know anything about this mission… that was deliberate on our part that this would be conducted as a unilateral mission. President Obama had made very clear to the Pakistanis that if we had good evidence as to where Osama bin Laden was located we were going to go in and get him. And– that’s exactly what happened.
BRIAN WILLIAMS: Well, and I ask that because I’m curious as to why, given all the hardware, the garrison, the personnel, it– retired military officers in that immediate area, why weren’t the United States forces fired upon?
LEON PANETTA: Well, that was obviously a concern that was raised at the time we were considering this operation, which was going into this kind of sensitive area with helicopters and SEALs and landing on this compound– would the Pakistanis suddenly respond and you know, try to pin down our forces. Frankly, we, you know, we considered all of those contingencies. That’s why we had the backup helicopters in place.

On the role of interrogation:
BRIAN WILLIAMS: Can you confirm that it was as a result of water boarding that we learned what we needed to learn to go after Bin Laden?
LEON PANETTA: Brian, in the intelligence business you work from a lot of sources of information and that was true here… It’s a little difficult to say it was due just to one source of information that we got… I think some of the detainees clearly were, you know, they used these enhanced interrogation techniques against some of these detainees. But I’m also saying that, you know, the debate about whether we would have gotten the same information through other approaches I think is always going to be an open question.
BRIAN WILLIAMS: So finer point, one final time, enhanced interrogation techniques — which has always been kind of a handy euphemism in these post-9/11 years — that includes water boarding?
LEON PANETTA: That’s correct.

On Muammar Khaddafy:
BRIAN WILLIAMS: Do you have any proof since Saturday night that Muammar Khaddafy is alive?
LEON PANETTA: I — at least– best intelligence we have is that he’s still alive.

On reports that Pakistani government has bin Laden family members:
BRIAN WILLIAMS: A statement from overseas reads simply, “Pakistan has family members of Osama bin Laden in custody.” Is that true?
LEON PANETTA: That’s correct. The family members who were at the compound and were left there by our forces — our understanding is that the Pakistanis now have them in their detention. And frankly, we have asked access to those individuals so we can continue to gather intelligence. And the word we go back from the Pakistanis is that we would have that access.

# # #
TRANSCRIPT:

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
There is a report as we have this conversation, for the record, 10:36 a.m., that the President, the White House, has decided and, it may already be out, to release a proof of death photo. What light can you shed on this?

LEON PANETTA:
The government obviously has been talking about how best to do this, but I don’t think there’s– there was any question that ultimately a photograph would be presented to the public. Obviously I’ve seen those photographs. We’ve analyzed them and there’s no question that it’s Bin Laden.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Were you debating how the release of a photo would go over, given its gruesomeness, versus the need on behalf of people all over the world to demand proof of death?

LEON PANETTA:
I think there’s no question that there were concerns and there were questions that had to be debated about just exactly question kind of impact– would these photos have. But the bottom line is that, you know, we got Bin Laden and I think we have to reveal to the rest of the world the fact that we were able to get him and kill him.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Is the world safer?

LEON PANETTA:
Brian, I– I don’t think there’s any question that– you know, when you get the number one terrorist in the world that we’re a little safer today than we were when he was alive. But I also don’t think we ought to kid ourselves that killing Osama bin Laden kills al Qaeda. Al Qaeda still remains a threat. They’re still going try to attack our country. And I think we have to continue to be vigilant– and– and continue the effort to ultimately defeat these guys. We’ve damaged them, but we still have to defeat them

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Asked another way perhaps, what does this change?

LEON PANETTA:
I– I think what it– what it represents is that you know, President Bush, President Obama– were very intent on making clear that we were going go after Osama bin Laden. I think soon after I became director of the CIA– President Obama pulled me into the Oval Office and said”: “Look, I just want you to know that your top priority is to go after Osama bin Laden.” I think the fact that we were able to do that– that we were successful in this effort, has sent an important signal to the world that the United States, when it develops a focus on what’s important, what we have to do, we get the job done.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
When did the President’s order in this mission become real and go up and become a possibility?

LEON PANETTA:
Well, as you know as we’ve been- debating this issue for a long time. And we had a number of sessions at the White House going over all of the intelligence and all of the approaches as to how we would conduct these operations.

But it wasn’t until Thursday* morning that the national security advisor called me and said that the President had made a decision to proceed with this operation. And then later that day I received orders signed by the President of the United States to proceed to conduct this operation under Title 50, which means it was a covert operation. And we would be responsible from the President for seeing that this mission was accomplished.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
What did the Pakistanis know and when did they know it?

LEON PANETTA:
The Pakistanis did not know anything about this mission. And that was that was deliberate on our part that this would be conducted as a unilateral mission. President Obama had made very clear to the Pakistanis that if we– if we had good evidence as to where Osama bin Laden was located we were going to go in and get him. And– that’s exactly what happened.

So I think the only time the Pakistanis found out about it, frankly, was after this mission had taken place. We had to blow the helicopter, as you know, and that probably woke up a lot of people, including the Pakistanis.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Well, and I ask that because I’m curious as to why, given all the hardware, the garrison, the personnel, it– retired military officers in that immediate area, why weren’t the United States forces fired upon?

LEON PANETTA:
Well, that was obviously a concern that was raised at the time we were considering this operation which was going into this kind of sensitive area with helicopters and SEALs and landing on this compound– would the Pakistanis suddenly respond and you know, try to pin down our forces.

Frankly, we, you know, we considered all of those contingencies. That’s why we had the backup helicopters in place. But the reality was that I think in– in– in going in, I think the military commander felt confident that we would be able to get in and get out, hopefully within 30 to 35 minutes. The fact was that we completed this operation within 40 minutes and we had everybody on their way out of that country. And even at that point, the Pakistanis were not aware of just exactly what had happened.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Did the President’s order read capture or kill or both or just one of those?

LEON PANETTA:
The authorities we have on Bin Laden are to kill him. And that was made clear. But it was also, as part of their rules of engagement, if he suddenly put up his hands and offered to be captured, then– they would have the opportunity, obviously, to capture him. But that opportunity never developed.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
And why, I’ve heard several people asking, could this same thing have been done at the start of the Iraq war to save the lives of all those souls we had to bury? To– to save all those young Americans from coming home with such grievous injuries in the commission of that war?

LEON PANETTA:
You know, I believe that Osama bin Laden, obviously, was the– the number one terrorist that we were after and-what he did in attacking this country made him clearly the number one target for us. But the fact was that this has been a long and difficult road. And I don’t believe there was really another opportunity that had been provided to be able to– to pin him down and be able to conduct the kind of operation that we did.

I– you know, the bottom line reason that I think the President made the decision to go was that this was the best evidence we had of Bin Laden and where he might be located going back to Tora Bora. And because it was the best evidence we had, even though it was circumstantial, it demanded that we take action.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
You see why I’m– I’m asking the– you know, the Iraq war was very personal, very personally about one man. And while reasonable people will debate whether or not it was an elective war of the choices after 9/11, it became about him and this so called single bullet directive by the President, aimed to take out one man that– that of course– in the course of it saved so many Americans. I’m just asking if that could not have been– a route we could have pursued in that war?

LEON PANETTA:
Well, you know, I– I guess there’ll be a lot of second guessing as to what could or could not have been the case, but I think the reality was that even though I’m sure a lot of people wanted to get Bin Laden from the very beginning, we just did not have the same opportunity to do it as we had within these last few days.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
I’d like to ask you about the sourcing on the intel that ultimately led to this successful attack. Can you confirm that it was– as a result of water boarding that we learned what we needed to learn to go after Bin Laden?

LEON PANETTA:
It– you know, Brian, in the intelligence business you work from a lot of sources of information and that was true here. We had a multiple source– a multiple series of– sources that provided information with regards to the situation. Clearly some of it came from detainees and the interrogation of detainees but we also had information from other sources as well.

From Sigent intelligence, from imagery, from other sources that we had– assets on the ground. And it was a combination of all of that that ultimately we were able to put together that led us to that compound. So– it’s– it’s a little difficult to say it was due just to one source of information that we got.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Turned around the other way, are you denying that water boarding was, in part, among the tactics used to extract the intelligence that led to this successful mission?

LEON PANETTA:
No, I think some of the detainees clearly were, you know, they used these enhanced interrogation techniques against some of these detainees. But I’m also saying that, you know, the debate about whether– whether we would have gotten the same information through other approaches I think is always going to be an open question.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
So finer point, one final time, enhanced interrogation techniques, which has always been kind of a handy euphemism in these post-9/11 years. That–

LEON PANETTA:
Right.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
–in– includes water boarding?

LEON PANETTA:
That’s correct.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
How often did the desert raid circa Carter administration, how often did Black Hawk Down in Somalia rattle around your heads, rattle around the room as you sat during the planning stages?

LEON PANETTA:
Well, that– that was clearly part of the debate. You know, this– this was a risky mission. There were a lot of risks and a lot of uncertainties. We had, you know, the bottom line was this. That we had the best intelligence– on the location of Bin Laden– since Tora Bora. That that– that presented an obligation to act. And the President obviously felt that we had that obligation to act.

What course we would take, whether we would use an assault– the way we did or whether we would try other methods was also debated. And when we came down to considering the assault, the risks of having helicopters go down, the risks of suddenly being in battle with the Pakistanis or having a serious incident there, all of that was discussed.

And we all knew that that was– that was part of– the risks involved here. But the President, to his credit, made the decision that we had to go. And I think we had great confidence in the capability of these SEAL teams who conduct these operations two and three times a night in Afghanistan. We had tremendous confidence that they could get the job done.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Related subject regarding at least, a world figure. Director Panetta, do you have any proof since Saturday night that Muammar Khaddafy is alive?

LEON PANETTA:
Do I have any proof that he is alive?

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Yes.

LEON PANETTA:
Is that what you’re asking, Brian?

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Yes.

LEON PANETTA:
I– at least– best intelligence we have is that he’s still alive.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
So there’s been– there’s been a sighting, a communication by him? You have positive proof of life?

LEON PANETTA:
It– best intelligence we have on Khaddafy is that– he is– he is still alive.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
And finally, a question on Pakistan. How do you relate to them now? How do you go to them and say, “I understand that in the most important– military operation that’ll probably be conducted in your soil in modern times we didn’t inform you in advance. We regard you as a trusted ally though you have broken our trust in the past.” How do you go forward from here?

LEON PANETTA:
We– we have to go forward with the– the Pakistanis. The reality is that we continue to confront our enemy in their country. We conduct operations against that enemy and their country. They have provided cooperation with regards to that effort to go after those terrorists. At the same time, obviously– there– there are questions. And there are complications that we have to work through with the Pakistanis.

And the bottom line here is that they were clearly told that if we had Bin Laden, if we knew where he was, we were going to go in and get him. And actually, when– when– when we revealed to them that this operation had taken place, interestingly enough, the first comment from them was congratulations. So they knew very well what we intended to do.

And, hopefully, we can continue to work with them, because the reality is that in that part of the world we have to have Pakistan’s cooperation in dealing not just with the issue of terrorism in their country, but dealing with the issue of how we find peace in Afghanistan.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
And I lied about the last question. One more was just handed to me. A statement from overseas reads simply, “Pakistan has family members of Osama bin Laden in custody.” Is that true?

LEON PANETTA:
That’s correct. The family members who were at the compound and were left there by our– our– our forces– our understanding is that the Pakistanis now have– have them in– in their detention. And frankly, we have asked access to those individuals so we can continue to gather intelligence. And the word we go back from the Pakistanis is that we would have that access.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
What do you think they have for you? What’s the value to the U.S., potentially?

LEON PANETTA:
You know, Brian, we have– we’ve gotten an awful lot of– of– potential intelligence out of this operation, beyond just going after the number one terrorist. The reality is that we picked up an awful lot of information there at the compound. If you combine that with the ability to continue questioning the family, this could– this could give us a lot of valuable information regarding threats, regarding the location of other high value targets and regarding the kind of operations that we need to conduct against these terrorists. So this was– this was an important effort, not only because we got the number one terrorist, but because of the intelligence information that we got from this operation.

# # #

Read more: http://thepage.time.com/2011/05/03/panetta-public-likely-to-see-obl-picture/#ixzz1LKvD3vVO

Food Stamp Recipients Hit 44.2 Million, A New Record

Posted By on May 2, 2011

The SNAP released the most recent food stamp numbers. Not surprisingly, we have another all time high of 44.2 million poverty-level Americans relying on government funding for day to day sustenance.  So you ask: When will this end?   Hmm…we wonder about that too!

The Killing Of Osama bin Laden

Posted By on May 2, 2011

From MSNBC……The interesting story of how it all happened……from start to finish! 

First intelligence of a courier, then an extraordinary house with high walls — and no telephone or Internet. Bin Laden and a son are among five killed in a firefight.

By Bill Dedman

It started with an unnamed courier.

Senior White House officials said Monday that the trail that led to Osama bin Laden began before 9/11, before the terror attacks that brought bin Laden to prominence. The trail warmed up last fall, when U.S. intelligence discovered an elaborate compound in Pakistan.

“From the time that we first recognized bin Laden as a threat, the U.S. gathered information on people in bin Laden’s circle, including his personal couriers,” a senior official in the Obama administration said in a background briefing from the White House.

After the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, “detainees gave us information on couriers. One courier in particular had our constant attention. Detainees gave us his nom de guerre, his pseudonym, and also identified this man as one of the few couriers trusted by bin Laden.”

In 2007, the U.S. learned the man’s name.

In 2009, “we identified areas in Pakistan where the courier and his brother operated. They were very careful, reinforcing belief we were on the right track.”

In August 2010, “we found their home in Abbottabad,” not in a cave, not right along the Afghanistan border, but in an affluent suburb less than 40 miles from the capital.

“When we saw the compound, we were shocked by what we saw: an extraordinarily unique compound.”

The plot of land was roughly eight times larger than the other homes in the area. It was built in 2005 on the outskirts of town, but now some other homes are nearby.

“Physical security is extraordinary: 12 to 18 foot walls, walled areas, restricted access by two security gates.” The residents burn their trash, unlike their neighbors. There are no windows facing the road. One part of the compound has its own seven-foot privacy wall.

And unusual for a compound valued at more than $1 million: It had no telephone or Internet service.

This home, U.S. intelligence analysts concluded, was “custom built to hide someone of significance.”

Besides the two brothers, the U.S. “soon learned that a third family lived there, whose size and makeup of family we believed to match those we believed would be with bin Laden. Our best information was that bin Laden was there with his youngest wife.”

There was no proof, but everything seemed to fit: the security, the background of the couriers, the design of the compound.

“Our analysts looked at this from every angle. No other candidate fit the bill as well as bin Laden did,” an official said.

“The bottom line of our collection and analysis was that we had high confidence that the compound held a high-value terrorist target. There was a strong probability that it was bin Laden.”

That conclusion was reached in mid-February, officials said. Beginning in mid-March, the president led five National Security Council meetings on the plans for an operation.

On Friday, the president gave the order.

This information was shared “with no other country,” an official said. “Only a very small group of people inside our own government knew of this operation in advance.”

The raid


The operation Sunday went smoothly except for a helicopter landing that was not part of the original plan. The choppers were only intended to hover over the scene, but due to a technical malfunction, one of them landed or fell — “not a crash,” the official said — so the military dispatched a third “emergency” helicopter to the scene.

“This operation was a surgical raid by a small team designed to minimize collateral damage. Our team was on the compound for under 40 minutes and did not encounter any local authorities.”

Bin Laden himself participated in the ensuing firefight, the officials suggsted.

“Bin laden was killed in a firefight as our operators came onto the compound,” an official said.

Did he fire, a reporter asked

Four adult males were killed: bin Laden, his son, and the two couriers.

“One woman killed when used as a shield,” and other women were injured, the officials said. The women’s names were not given; it’s not clear whether bin Laden’s wife was among them.

The team blew up the disabled chopper upon their departure with bin Laden’s remains, which resulted in a “massive explosion,” the official told NBC.

Pakistan officials were unaware of the operation and scrambled fighter jets after getting reports of the explosion. But the U.S. helicopters were able to leave without further incident, the official said.

No U.S. personnel died. The officials would not name the type of helicopter, or the military units involved, or say how many U.S. personnel participated.

A U.S. official told NBC News that Obama was able to monitor the situation in real time from the Situation Room inside the White House.

Applause broke out in the room around 3:55 a.m. ET, when the team on the ground reported that the attack had killed bin Laden. Obama called his predecessors, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, to inform them of the news, senior administration officials told NBC.

An official told Reuters that CIA Director Leon Panetta and other intelligence officials also monitored the situation in real time from a conference room at the agency’s Langley, Va. headquarters.

The official who spoke to NBC News described two moments in particular as “heartstopping”: the moment the choppers arrived on the scene, and when they left the country.

Handling bin Laden’s body

 
Early Monday, an official told NBC News that bin Laden’s body had already been buried at sea — eliminating the possibility of a burial shrine.

Islamic tradition calls for a body to be buried within 24 hours, but finding a country willing to accept the remains of the world’s most wanted terrorist would have been difficult, a senior administration official said.

The White House officials proclaimed bin Laden’s death “the single greatest victory in the U.S.-led campaign against al-Qaida,” as one called it.

The officials also said they expect attacks from bin Laden’s loyalists who may step up the timing of previously planned operations.

“In the wake of this operation, there may be a heightened threat to the U.S. homeland. The U.S. is taking every possible precaution.” The State Department has sent advisories to embassies worldwide and has issued a travel ban for Pakistan.

“Although al-Qaida will not fragment immediately,” an official said, “the death of bin Laden puts al-Qaida on a path of decline that will be difficult to reverse.”

© 2011 msnbc.com    www.msnbc.com

Questions And More Questions About bin Laden

Posted By on May 2, 2011

If What We Are Told Below Is Right:  Big Question?  Does Anybody Truly Believe This….Yes he is dead, but buried at sea already?  U.S. says by Islamic practice burial must be with in 24 hours……and that no country would take him.  So….

1) The order was to kill, not capture (which begs the question as to why not just bomb him with a drone strike since we seem to have dozens in the air over Pakistan at any given time)

2) He was located ~1000 ft from the Pakistani equivalent of West Point

3) We get one picture of the corpse

4) He is “buried at sea” before the body is even cold

Osama bin Laden Killed By CIA Special Forces In Pakistan

Posted By on May 1, 2011

The most wanted and hunted person in United States history gets his just reward…….Osama, may you rot in HELL!  The United States message is you can run but you can’t hide.  President Obama confirmed Osama bin Laden was killed by CIA Special Forces, with a short address to the nation and ended with this quote “ God Bless America”.

A CIA-led operation has killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and recovered his body.  CIA Director Leon Panetta called key members of Congress late Sunday to describe the killing of the Al Qaeda leader. 

Bin Laden was killed in a firefight during a secret operation President Obama ordered inside Pakistan, ending a 10 year manhunt for the world’s most wanted terrorist. American officials were in possession of his body.   U.S. Predator drone attacks had grown frequent there helping to set up this CIA Special Forces secret operation.

Retirement Income? A Tough Place To Be In A Low Interest Rate Envirenment

Posted By on April 30, 2011

From The Wall Street Journal….Retirement annuities, may not be such a good idea after all, especially now.  Read on!

Turmoil in the stock market. Paltry interest rates at the bank. What are the newly retired to do?

Many are taking a look at buying a fixed annuity instead.  These products let you swap a lump sum for a fixed income for life. They’re sold by insurance companies, and have long been considered a safe way to ensure a steady income in retirement.

But there’s a big problem right now. Annuity payout rates have slumped.

These may be a particularly risky bet right now. Anyone buying an annuity will be locking in today’s low interest rates for life. You’ll be earning a low level of return. And it could leave you at risk if inflation picks up.

Consider a newly retired 65-year-old woman who invests $100,000 in a fixed annuity today. According to ImmediateAnnuities.com, a comparison website, that will buy her an income of $590 a month, or about $7,000 a year.

Ten years ago, she would have gotten nearly $9,000.

And a generation ago, she could have gotten nearly $11,000 a year. A 90-year-old who retired 25 years ago and bought a $100,000 annuity has so far banked $270,000 in checks from the insurance company.  A 65-year-old trying to follow in her footsteps will collect $90,000 less.

Today’s rates are artificially depressed. The actions of the Federal Reserve, along with governments and other political players in the bond market, have driven long-term interest rates lower than they should be. It’s hardly sustainable. And today’s rates leave you very little margin of safety.

“Low bond yields do make immediate annuities a fairly poor investment from a pricing standpoint right now, particularly for a new retiree,” argues Ben Birken, a financial planner at Woodward Financial Advisors, in Chapel Hill, N.C. “You’re locking in an income stream that’s going to lose purchasing power pretty quickly.”

Do the math. If inflation averages 2.5% a year over the next 20 years, the buying power of a $100,000 annuity will fall from $590 a month to just $360.

And if inflation rises to, say, 5%, the buying power will fall to $220.

Inflation isn’t the only issue. The insurance companies that provide annuities typically have high costs, from administration to marketing. Sales staff often pocket the first 5% of your investment as commission. Those costs mean your returns are lower than they would be otherwise. And as payout ratios fall, these costs have become more important in relative terms, not less.

And these are on top of the perennial issues with annuities, such as that you lose control of your principal and you’re dependent on the financial strength of an insurance company (although, to be fair, they are pretty closely regulated).

Actual investment rates of return on your savings are far lower than you may realize. An annuity isn’t a bond or a certificate of deposit. When a bond or CD matures, you get your principal back. When the annuity finishes — in other words, when you die — the money is gone.

www.wsj.com

The Real World We Live In….

Posted By on April 28, 2011

Reality check for the government talking heads……are things really as good as they think. 

From Reuters:

An April 20-23 Gallup survey of 1,013 U.S. adults found that only 27 percent said the economy is growing. 29 percent said the economy is in a depression and 26 percent said it is in a recession, with another 16 percent saying things are  “slowing down,” Gallup said.”

McDonalds Has Over One Million Applicants For Minimum Wage Part-Time Jobs

Posted By on April 28, 2011

What’s wrong with this picture….McDonalds has one million new job applications which is two and a half times more applications then it has total workers employed by its company owned stores!  Geez….

 Bloomberg:

McDonald’s and its franchisees hired 62,000 people in the U.S. after receiving more than one million applications, the Oak Brook, Illinois-based company said today in an e-mailed statement. Previously, it said it planned to hire 50,000.

The April 19 national hiring day was the company’s first, said Danya Proud, a McDonald’s spokeswoman. She declined to disclose how many of the jobs were full- versus part-time. McDonald’s employed 400,000 workers worldwide at company-owned stores at the end of 2010, according to a company filing.

One Million (Probably More) Exhaust Jobless Benefits

Posted By on April 28, 2011

Nothing to worry about for now…as long as all these recently subsidy-free individuals aren’t paying their mortgage and the banks aren’t enforcing payment….all is well, sort of…. but eventually that roof will go away!  It’s probably worse, that’s because the government has so many seasonal adjustments now days that it tends to make things seem better then they really are.

Roughly one million people were unable to find work after exhausting their unemployment benefits over the past year, new data released Thursday by the Labor Department suggests.

The back-of-the-envelope datapoint is yet another sign that the labor market remains weak, economists said.

About 8.2 million idled workers were receiving unemployment benefits as of the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said in its weekly jobless claims report. That compares to about 10.5 million individuals at the same time last year, a decline of roughly 2.3 million people.

Since the federal government estimates that the economy created 1.3 million jobs during the 12 months ended in March, economists said that slightly less people probably fell through the cracks and couldn’t find employment.

“That leaves, roughly speaking, about one million people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and have very likely not yet found a job,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. in New York.

Wal Mart CEO: “Shoppers Are Running Out Of Money”…. There Is “No Sign Of A Recovery”

Posted By on April 28, 2011

A sign of the (hard) times……..despite what the government portends!

The head of Wal-Mart’s U.S. operations warned Wednesday talking to USA Today….”Wal-Mart’s core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago due to rising gasoline prices, and the retail giant is worried. “We’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” Duke said at an event in New York. “There’s no doubt that rising fuel prices are having an impact.

Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in.

Lately, they’re “running out of money” at a faster clip.

“Purchases are really dropping off by the end of the month even more than last year,” Duke said. “This end-of-month [purchases] cycle is growing to be a concern.

Wal-Mart which averages 140 million shoppers weekly to its stores in the United States, is considered a barometer of the health of the consumer and the economy.  Wal-Mart has struggled with seven straight quarters of sales declines in its stores.

Q1 GDP Prints At 1.8% Misses Consensus OF 2.0%, Falls Sharply From 3.1% In Q4, Initial Claims Surge

Posted By on April 28, 2011

The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than forecast, surprising many in the first quarter as government spending declined by the most since 1983.  Gross National Product prints 1.8% down from consensus of 2.0% which had multiple negative revisions.

Economists were unanimous by a record amount, in a poll….. that things were going to be dynamically better and the economy was on the up slope here and now in 2011….. much like they thought things would continue dynamically better in 2007… wrong,.wrong!

Which way is government spending heading….not just lower, but diving like a submarine heading for deep water!  How will this effect things?   Very negatively unless you are a fish.

Key highlights:

  • US GDP Price Index (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • US PCE Core (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.4)
  • US Personal Consumption (Q1 A) Q/Q 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 23) W/W 429K vs. Exp. 395K (Prev. 403K)

Interesting Tid Bit

Posted By on April 27, 2011

For the first time since the Great Depression, households are receiving more income from the government than they are paying the government in taxes. The combination of more cash from various programs, called transfer payments, and lower taxes has been a double-barreled boost to consumers’ buying power, while also blowing a hole in the deficit. The 1930s offer a cautionary tale: The only other time government income support exceeded taxes paid was from 1931 to 1936. That trend reversed in 1936, after a recovery was underway, and the economy fell back into a second leg of recession during 1937 and 1938.

Are We Going To Have A “Restructuring Credit Event” Here!

Posted By on April 26, 2011

Rather important to say the least, because what happens here may spread like wild fire across the European continent……another fuse looking for a match!

In London on Tuesday, UBS’s City office asked the decisions committee of the International Swaps & Derivatives Association to say whether the Irish government’s new Credit Institutions Act signals a “restructuring credit event” for Anglo Irish Bank.

The Act orders AIB to buy back certain “subordinated liabilities” from bondholders, potentially triggering bets against the bank’s debt known as credit default swaps.

Yields offered to new buyers of Irish, Greek and Portuguese debt all rose to new post-Euro records on Tuesday morning, as prices continued to fall.

Deutsche Bank Ranks U.S. Sovereign Risk

Posted By on April 26, 2011

Deutsche Bank ranks the U.S. government as the world’s fourth riskiest sovereign borrower, behind Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and just ahead of Italy.

More Basic Math 101

Posted By on April 25, 2011

Low interest rates are here forever….or it’s game over!  Realistically speaking, we all know interest rates can’t stay low forever, so…..it’s just a matter of time.

With ultra low interest rates, the U.S. interest expense is $440 billion this year or 3% of GDP. If government borrowing rates were to rise a mere 2%, interest expense would surge to $770 billion annually or over 5% of GDP. That would make the task of bringing down outlays relative to GDP nearly impossible without draconian cuts.

Math 101

Posted By on April 25, 2011

If one was running a corporation….the blue line should be above the red line.  Basic math 101.

Average tax receipts over the last half century are about 17% of GDP and spending about 20%. Any reasonable plan would attempt to return to those norms. The partisan budget approach focuses on central themes. From the political right, a major cut in government spending without tax increases would, by some miracle, increase tax receipts. It’s interesting because taxes actually collected relative to GDP are already at historic lows. From the left, there’s a call for higher taxes and few spending cuts in order to maintain the status quo. The cause of the impasse in governance should be apparent to any thinking person.


The Wealth Effect For The Rich Vs. Negative Wealth Effect For Everyone Else!

Posted By on April 25, 2011

“The Wealth Effect” — combined with low taxes on capital has concentrated American wealth into the hands of the richest 1%. Seven percent of income flows to the top 0.1 %. Meanwhile, tax receipts in general are the lowest as a percentage of GDP in a half century.

Poverty And Distress Rolls Down The Highway

Posted By on April 25, 2011

American poverty and distress, such as food stamp recipients are headed for an all time high!

 

The Story Of North America And South America…

Posted By on April 25, 2011

The story of the America’s…..From Art Cashin on the floor of The New York Stock Exchange

On this day in the year 1507 A.D., an enterprising author published a hit book.  While he was not the John Grisham of his day, he did hope to benefit from two recent events of interest to move his book.  First was the discovery of moveable type which had occurred some sixty years before.  (That meant he could print his tome in volume….so to speak.)  Then, of course, there was that other curiosity (not about past clandestine White House lunches or curious shifting of funds) rather it was a public curiosity about a variety of sea voyages in the previous two decades.

The author, a German named Martin Waldseemuller, decided to publish makeshift maps of the new lands reached by these explorers.  He dutifully researched all the reports and drew the assumed designs and locations of the new areas.  Of course, he had to name them, so in his massive “Cosmographics Introductione” he applied a name to a large land mass in the Southern Hemisphere.  He used the name of one of the men who had claimed to have visited it. No, it was not Christopher Columbus (he was busy renegotiating with the Spanish Court).  Rather the budding cartographer used the name on a certain self-promotional pamphlet by a certain Italian Merchant named Amerigo Vespucci.  The author called the potential continent – Amerigo.  Unfortunately for Columbus, Waldseemuller’s book was an instant hit.

And, so the continent became known as America (later, South America when another continent further north was also discovered).  And the other guy, Columbus, well he remained in litigation over Spanish rights to the treasures of this New World until he wound up in jail.

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