Moody’s Warns On Greece….Next Up Could Be Spain

Posted By on June 27, 2011

Greece is a goner….it sounds like a run on the Greek banks are just around the corner….the ECU needs to move on to bigger fish, like Spain.

Today, as part of its Weekly Credit Outlook, Moody’s issued for the first time a very stark warning that should the rate of attrition in domestic deposits (and to see where these are going merely look at the daily EURCHF chart) persist, or accelerate, the results would be disastrous, “a sustained decline of deposits by more than 35% (roughly equal to the consolidated banking system’s liquid assets and ECB funding availability) within a short period of time, would cause a severe shortage of cash among banks.”   “With the decline in customer deposits, we expect Greek banks to find it increasingly challenging to reduce their ECB funding dependence, which is their primary objective based on their funding plans committed to the Central Bank of Greece.”

Spanish Banks Hiding Over $70 Billion In Bad Real Estate, El Confidencial Finds!

Last year, in “The Ticking Time Bomb That Are The Spanish Cajas”, it was said “Cajas are likely hiding losses on home loans by taking non-performing mortgages out of securitized pools. Absent this unsymmetrical onboarding of risk, the overall deterioration of the broader pool would have become ineligible as collateral in ECB refi operations.” it was also noted that at 264 bps, Spain CDS “is cheaper than a deserted Salamanca hotel.” (it is 320 bps today and soon going much wider). So now that Ireland (of all bankrupt countries) is slinging feces in a desperate attempt at distraction and pointing fingers at Spain, it is logical that the mainstream media would once again remind the world that Spain’s financial system is effectively hollow, and that the greatest mystery in the financial world continues to be that Spanish CDS is not trading 2 or 3 times wider than where it is now. As Bloomberg says  “Spanish banks have 50 billion euros ($70.7 billion) in unrecognised problematic real estate assets, El Confidencial reported, citing a report by the Boston Consulting Group. The consulting group estimates that Spanish banks need between 20 billion euros and 30 billion euros in additional capital and that Spain’s bank rescue fund, known as the FROB, could end up taking over 20 percent of the banking industry, El Confidencial added.”

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