A Demographic Scoop, And More Demographic Poop
Posted By thestatedtruth.com on January 12, 2012
It’s all about demographics my dear Watson….here’s some food for thought!
First up let’s study a graph of the Census Bureau historical and forecast data for the peak-spending cohort population in the U.S. from 1980 to 2050.
The Age 45-49 cohort peaked in 2009 and will bottom out in 2022 after an estimated decline of 13.4% from the 2009 population. The Census Bureau’s estimate for 2012 would give us an additional 8.8% decline in numbers for the big spending cohort before bottoming out.
Economists and market analysts often think of the retiring boomers as the primary drag on the economy with their the transition from the accumulation phase of their life-cycle to the decumulation phase. But if we understand of the crucial role of consumption for our economic health (about 70% of GDP), a significant shrinkage in the number of peak spenders is a demographic headwind that will challenge us for years to come.
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