A Looming Trade War With China . . .

Posted By on March 24, 2010

Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing . . . for Thursday March 25, 2010:
 
Good evening;
 

A looming trade war with China . . . superficially seems the least desirable tact, for both China and the United States. However, the trend has been building for a couple years now; as we’ve forewarned with respect to inferior product quality control; failure to enforce intellectual property rights in China (or in products exported but unlicensed to use American technology); plus of course cyber-espionage attacks of all sorts; that the communist regime has failed to acknowledge. In fact, Beijing switched tactics just today and accused Google of colluding with U.S. intelligence and of a strategic error.

In reality; this is typical of China’s foreign trade and partnering posturing; where they twist the truth to fit their policies. While we realize that democracy, even open-source content on the internet, is not entirely something for any company to assert in another land; it’s not so simple as the communist pipe-organs suggest. Remember that China used Google and others to ‘snoop’ and as a vehicle to entrap dissidents and others in this battle; and at some point a principled Western company has to have some limits, if they are to contend any remaining morality in their operations.

China accuses Google’s (entirely legal by the way) move to redirect search traffic to Hong Kong is actually a U.S. preemptive strike in a ‘pre-dawn internet war’. Well, it’s China who started the battle; it’s China who thought by being our biggest lender that they could determine what we do with impunity; and it’s China who is admitting they are engaged in cyber-attacks, if they even suggest such measures as ‘preemptive’.

Although we have warned since January (when some pundits and analysts were out there pushing Google with absurd targets in the 700’s) that Google was topping and an ensuing move was just a rebound before it headed 50-100 lower (if not more); the primary point with respect to the market was the potential of a dispute with our largest lender. Ie: the point about owing them so much that it’s more their problem than ours. Also; that unless we get some ‘mettle’ in trade policies, we’re just swinging aimlessly with respect to the projected tendency to instill worries about perennial outsourcing to other nations, as well as undermining all the efforts to stabilize the U.S. jobs picture.

The disingenuous posturing by the Red Chinese (acting more like Soviet Russia after the Olympics, pretty much dropping the pretense of liberalization) is emphasized by a ‘rethinking’ that American and other countries have regarding outsourcing and failure by Bejing to revalue their currency more realistically (which hurts them multiple ways) if for no other reason than to maintain fallacies of some sort of level playing fields. As this day evolved, even the (sometimes quirky in its own right) ‘Godaddy.com’ stated they will stop registering internet domain addresses in China altogether. Before one is tempted to forget this, and with all the spats from the communists, the internet just happens to be a U.S. product; which is hardly recalled these days. The purpose was originally for the military to be able reroute communications if an enemy cut our lines; thus the ability to have messages or telephony arrive at any point via wide rerouting. That’s why to this day all registrations go through American registrars, of which one of the original ones has a heritage dating to when early www url’s were all registered in Virginia, in a building that happens to be across the street from a large intelligence office. That probably irks the Chinese to this day; but oh well; it’s our ‘net, not theirs.

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