Just How Large Is The Outstanding Value Of Sovereign Bonds?

Posted By on July 16, 2010

By CalculatedRisk

Posted 07-16-2010

According to the Bank for International Settlements, at year end 2009 worldwide sovereign debt exceeded $34 trillion, and is greater than the amount of corporate bonds outstanding.

Japan and the U.S. dwarf most other borrowers. Together they have about half of all sovereign debt worldwide. Still, 23 other countries have over $100 billion of debt outstanding. The other 100+ countries worldwide have a total debt of about $1.4 trillion.

 Sovereign Debt by Country Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note: This graph shows the sovereign debt in December 2007 and December 2009.

Due to the recession and increased expenditures to rescue banking systems, total sovereign debts grew by almost 30% in just two years. Sovereigns became the majority of worldwide debt. Several countries doubled their debts from 2007 to 2009 (BIS data).

Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

*For the U.S., figures include public holdings of Treasuries, but not Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac (about $8.1 trillion year end 2009, per BIS), or the “intragovernmental holdings” of Social Security, Medicare, the Civil Service Retirement Fund, etc. (about $4.5 trillion year end 2009, per US Bureau of Public Debt).

 Sovereign Debt by Country as percent of GDPWhen shown as a percent of GDP, the picture looks a bit different. Japan and Italy have both a large amount of debt in absolute terms, and as a % of GDP.

The United States has a more moderate debt as a % of GDP.

The third graph shows the size of sovereign debt compared to equities and other bonds.

 Sovereign Debt and other debtBecause of its immense size, sovereign debt is one of the largest risks to the global financial system. There are many linkages to sovereign debt, including interest rates, exchange rates, bank debt, and credit default swaps. Many of the potential problems and risks are surprising, even to those well-versed in their particular area of finance.

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