AAA Ratings: What A Sham

| August 30, 2010

The Daily Reckoning Presents                     AAA Ratings: A Grim Fairy Tale   How the ratings agencies have managed to emerge from the credit crisis unscathed and unregulated is a mystery…and a sham.”Nothing is ever clear or certain in public,” we wrote in The New Empire of Debt. “Every error is someone else’s fault. That is […]

In Some What Of A Surprise, State Tax Collections Rise Vs. Same Quarter A Year Ago

| August 29, 2010

Only three states had declining revenue,  Illinois revenue declined 7%, while Michigan’s collections fell 3.8%.   So, not sure just how this could happen, but….California, tax revenue declined 0.9%, despite 12% increase in income-tax collections,  this according to the Rockefeller Institute.  Hmm    Best to remember it’s just one quarter and most state budgets are still busted.    Question: Inquiring minds want to […]

George Friedman Of STRATFOR: China “Will Have A Collapse” In The Coming Decade And America Will Be The Primary Beneficiary

| August 29, 2010

Some food for thought from George Friedman, CEO of STRATFOR, who believes China “will have a collapse” in the coming decade due to internal striff, an export based economy, and low internal rates of return,  It will set America up as the primary beneficiary in a new Golden Era. Mr. Friedman’s views are controversial but well worth listening […]

The Economy: Where We Are Now!

| August 29, 2010

Last week, the Liscio Report posted an interesting comment on their blog, Where we are?: Here’s an updated guide to “where we are”—how the U.S. economy is faring relative to the average of previous financial crises around the world. Though individual details vary, we’re following the script pretty well. In the graphs of four major […]

Volcker-Led Economic Panel Pushes For Simpler U.S. Tax Code…..(One That The Average College Graduate Can Understand We Hope)!

| August 29, 2010

Yep, this is a true fact….Lawmakers have changed the tax code more than 15,000 times since the last major overhaul in 1986.  Unbelievable! The current income tax forms (other than the 1040 short form) are so complicated that the average educated person still needs a tax preparer to do their taxes.  This new report from Paul Volcker  proposes a […]

Let’s Revisit This Great Piece From Todd Harrison Of Minyanville!

| August 29, 2010

By Todd Harrison of Minyanville Seeking Solutions In An Uncertain World  We used to play for silver, now we play for life; ones for sport and one’s for blood at the point of a knife. –Grateful Dead We live in interesting times. During the last two years, a financial virus spawned and infected the economic […]

Pennsylvania Property Taxes May Worsen….Does This Set The Stage For The Same In Other States?

| August 28, 2010

This continues to be a hot subject and the problems continue to get worse.  Question: Why should communities have to support bloted state and government pension and benefit plans that are guaranteed no matter what the loses are, and totaly out of control while the rest of the country in the private sector has to live with less because of loses to IRA’s and […]

California Governor ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER On Government-Employee Compensation And Benefits

| August 27, 2010

Here is a summary of parts of a Wall Street Journal article by California Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger on government pensions and employee benefit compensation.  Roughly 80 cents of every government dollar in California goes to employee compensation and benefits.  Spending on California’s state employees over the past decade rose at nearly three times the rate our […]

Robert Shiller Says Double Dip “May Be Imminent”

| August 27, 2010

08/27/2010 The WSJ’s Simon Constable interviews Robert Shiller.  He says that an economic double dip may be “imminent.”   Shiller also believes that when the NBER looks back at the data, Q3 of this year will mark the beginning of the second dip of the recession. Ironically, since up to now the previous recession has never actually […]

One In 10 Mortgage Holders Face Foreclosure

| August 26, 2010

Modest is putting it bluntly…..There was some modestly encouraging news. The percentage of mortgage borrowers receiving foreclosure notices fell slightly to 4.57 percent in the April-to-June quarter.  Government efforts haven’t made much of a difference. Nearly half of the 1.3 million homeowners who have enrolled in the Obama administration’s main mortgage-relief program have been cut loose […]

Just How Important Are Labor Costs…..Answer: Very!

| August 26, 2010

One reason of many for a tough road ahead…..        From JPM……The latest profit recovery (the three red dots) is reliant on declining labor costs like none before it. A profit recovery whose foundation is so reliant on sustained high productivity and low real wage growth should not command a very high P/E multiple.   A recent JPM […]

Illinois Retirement Funds Selling Assets To Pay Benefits

| August 26, 2010

The Canary in the coal mine.     Sounds like a bad situation is setting itself up here…… We went over some of this just a few days ago……It’s an unfolding disaster…. Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System, Springfield, plans to sell $3 billion in investments, or about 10% of its $33.1 billion in assets in the current fiscal year […]

Kicking The Can Down The Road….Then Stepping On It!

| August 26, 2010

Hmm…..Two months in a row, right in the middle of the traditional best seasonal time of the year for real estate….not one new home was sold valued above $750,000 in the whole U.S. according to David Rosenberg (he worked for Merrill Lynch and now resides in Canada as chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff). …..Attitudes towards […]

A Novel Idea, But Way To Logical To Catch On!

| August 26, 2010

In a bid to stem taxpayer losses for bad loans guaranteed by federal housing agencies Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac, Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn) proposed that borrowers be required to make a 5% down payment in order to qualify. His proposal was rejected 57-42 on a party-line vote because, …………Senator Chris Dodd (D-Conn) explained, “passage […]

So…..

| August 25, 2010

An economic recovery doesn’t look anything like this: www.dailyreckoning.com

Given A Choice, Commercial Property Owners Choose to Default

| August 25, 2010

The big players always knew that real estate loans were non-recourse loans. They walk-away voluntarily.  Remember  the commercial market is more professional than housing. As  more of the big boys bite the dust,  the huge bounce will  crest,  and down she comes. Pension funds, insurance companies, small banks, retirement accounts etc. get hammered. Commercial Property Owners Choose to Default By […]

Existing Home Sales Fall Hard In July – Can Anyone Be Really Surprised?

| August 24, 2010

Existing home sales fell to their lowest level in over 15 years in July as inventories soared.   It portrays a grim picture for the housing market absent government support. Home resales dropped a record 27.2%  or nearly twice as much as analysts had expected to an annual rate of 3.83 million in July, according to the National Association of […]

Todd Harrison Of Minyanville…..Seeking Solutions In An Uncertain World

| August 23, 2010

By Todd Harrison of Minyanville Seeking Solutions In An Uncertain World  We used to play for silver, now we play for life; ones for sport and one’s for blood at the point of a knife. –Grateful Dead We live in interesting times. During the last two years, a financial virus spawned and infected the economic […]

New Housing Finance Ideas…….Can It Work?

| August 23, 2010

Let’s keep this in mind…..Quoting PIMCO’s Bill Gross on real estate mortgages, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac….”To suggest the private market can come back in and take the place [of the government] is simply impractical. It won’t work”. Sources say the Obama administration is floating the idea  that any federal backing of mortgages be paid for […]

We’ve Talked About Demographic Issues Recently…..They’re Not Going Away Any Time Soon

| August 23, 2010

Bill Gross reviewed demographics in his PIMCO August Investment Outlook, and he showed a graph, “Deep Demographic Doo-Doo”…..Now we can read David Rosenberg’s take on the matter. Today David Rosenberg begins to tackle the U.S. demographic issues from his own perspective, with his preliminary conclusions,  not validating any current optimistic perspectives in the U.S. economy: “starting next […]

HAMP Not On A Ramp

| August 20, 2010

HAMP stands for Home Affordable Modification Plan…… The key here is that these borrowers are still up to their eyeballs in debt after the modification. From Treasury: HAMP Servicer Performance Report Through July 2010 According to HAMP, there are 255,934 “active trials”, down from 364,077 last month. There is still a large number of borrowers in limbo […]

Just A Theory

| August 20, 2010

Quoted from Art Cashin on the floor of The New York Stock Exchange Yesterday, there was a bit of floor buzz on a Bloomberg TV item.  The story was that when the President headed off to vacation, he assigned two top defense aides to follow him. That raised some discussion about whether an Israeli move […]

PIMCO’s Bill Gross Has A Big Idea…..Question: Is It Fair To Save The Irresponsible At The Expense Of The Prudent And Conservative?

| August 20, 2010

  Aug 20, 2010     PIMCO’s Bill Gross Has A Big Idea…..Actually JP Morgan might have started these thoughts.   Question:  Is It Fair To Save The Irresponsible At The Expense Of The Prudent And Conservative?    Where is the bonus for being fiscally responsible?   Auh, there is none unless your in financial trouble! At Tuesday’s […]

CBO Says Its Own Budget Estimate May “Significantly Underestimate” Short-Term Deficit Outlook

| August 19, 2010

Congressional Budget Office director Doug Elmendorf who said that in reality the budget deficit could come in much higher than the just disclosed estimates, and the recent economic data releases have been “more negative” than data factored into the projection. Which, in government talk, means that the real deficit will likely come at least 20-30% higher, […]

Commercial Property Sounds The Alarm

| August 19, 2010

 U.S. commercia real estate mall prices fall almost 11% in second quarter.            Question……To whom would one sell commercial property to if forced in this environment?    The red ink is going to be massive.  The plunge is on.  Let’s hope the powers to be never require this stuff to be marked to market by the small banks or pension funds […]

Greece On Edge As Austerity Measures Backfire

| August 19, 2010

A scary setup……Greece is just the beginning, not an end, we have started a spiral.  The dominoes are now falling one by one.  Life will get a lot harder for the entire world including here in the U.S (we haven’t even got to the austerity part here), we’re now entering the twilight zone.  The solutions are […]

Change In U.S. Employment During 10 Postwar Recessions

| August 18, 2010

Personal Savings Rate Looking Up

| August 18, 2010

Banks Could Face Up To $179 Billion Of Losses On Loan Buyback Demands

| August 18, 2010

By David Mildenberg and Jody Shenn Aug 18, 2010 Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among 11 lenders that could suffer $133.8 billion in combined losses as mortgage-bond investors and insurers demand refunds for soured loans, according to an analysis by Compass Point Research and Trading LLC. That’s the base estimate by analyst […]

Must Watch Kyle Bass Interview On CNBC

| August 17, 2010

From Zerohedge.com     08/17/2010 The one must watch interview of the week (if not of the year) features Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass.  Bass, who correctly called the subprime implosion (and profited handsomely from it) as a iconoclast contrarian to conventional wisdom, tells David Faber that “given my outlook on the world, I don’t know how I […]

U.S. Household Debt Dropped 1.5% In The Second Quarter

| August 17, 2010

American households pared their debts last quarter, closing credit card accounts and taking out fewer mortgages as unemployment persisted near a 26-year high, a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed. Consumer indebtedness totaled $11.7 trillion at the end of June, a decline of 1.5 percent from the previous three months and […]

Pimco’s Gross Urges `Full Nationalization’ of Housing Finance

| August 17, 2010

Big changes coming to the housing market.  One thing you can be assured of, this will end badly, it always does when the government gets heavily involved.  “To suggest that there’s a large place for private financing in the future of housing finance is unrealistic,”  “Government is part of our future. We need a government balance […]

Berkshire’s Sokol Says U.S. Economy Faces `Painful Period’ of Debt Unwind

| August 16, 2010

Debt unwind means deflation! The U.S. is facing a “painful period” in the next five years as homeowners and governments unwind debt built up during the housing boom, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s David Sokol said today.  “All of that just feeds into a slow-growth environment,”“It’s going to be a painful period”  “People have been shocked into […]

A Broad Concentration Of Wealth — And Benefits — At The Top

| August 15, 2010

A major class struggle lies dead ahead!   The gap between the super-rich, the wealthy and “the rest of us” has widened, forming what is in essence two Americas.  Economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty have reported that the top 10% of earners took home about half of all income.  According to Moody’s Analytics research, the top 5% […]

FHA Makes Some Changes…..But These Changes Won’t Solve The Problem Of “To Little Money Down”

| August 15, 2010

The FHA is almost broke, is government supported and they back 30% of all loans outstanding….To make matters more interesting, in its 76-year history, the FHA has never required a credit score from borrowers.  (No wonder they’re broke).  At a 580 credit score and above, borrowers would be eligible for a 3.5% down payment (still ridiculous).  It is well below scores […]

GDP Contributions….State And Local At Bottom Of List

| August 14, 2010

 

‘Junk’ Bond Issuance Hits Record

| August 14, 2010

This couldn’t be a worse investment for the average person, they call them Junk Bonds for a reason. Take a guess why!  It will end in a very bad way.  U.S. companies issued risky “junk” bonds at a record clip this week, taking advantage of keen investor (idiots) appetite for returns (fools gold) amid declining interest rates and […]

Thoughts From John Mauldin’s The Frontline Weekly Newsletter

| August 14, 2010

The Gulf Oil Spill Disaster                                                      By John Mauldin                                                      August 13, 2010                           From Unmitigated Disaster to Merely Disaster First, let’s begin with the “good” news. The ecological destruction that was first feared is not going to be as bad as once thought, for a variety of reasons. It is not good, but it […]

For The First Time In U.S. History, Banks Own A Greater Share Of Residential Housing Net Worth In The United States Than All Individual Americans Put Together

| August 13, 2010

This May Be Just The Beginning Of British Petroleum’s Problems With The Gulf States

| August 13, 2010

Alabama is suing BP Plc and Transocean for damages sustained from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the state’s attorney general said on Friday. “We are making this claim because we believe that BP has inflicted catastrophic harm on the state,” attorney general Troy King told Reuters. “We are suing them for the amount it […]

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