Let’s Look At Our Check List Of How The Economy Is Doing…….

Posted By on May 27, 2010

#1) In what universe is an economy with 39.68 million Americans on food stamps considered to be a healthy, recovering economy?  In fact, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that enrollment in the food stamp program will exceed 43 million Americans in 2011.  Is a rapidly increasing number of Americans on food stamps a good sign or a bad sign for the economy?

#2) According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in the month of March.  This was an increase of almost 19 percent from February, and it was the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report back in January 2005.  So can you please explain again how the U.S. real estate market is getting better?

#3) The Mortgage Bankers Association just announced that more than 10 percent of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment in the January-March period.  That was a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago.  Do you think that is an indication that the U.S. housing market is recovering?

#4) How can the U.S. real estate market be considered healthy when, for the first time in modern history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together?

#5) With the U.S. Congress planning to quadruple oil taxes, what do you think that is going to do to the price of gasoline in the United States and how do you think that will affect the U.S. economy?

#6) Do you think that it is a good sign that Arnold Schwarzenegger, the governor of the state of California, says that “terrible cuts” are urgently needed in order to avoid a complete financial disaster in his state?

#7) But it just isn’t California that is in trouble.  Dozens of U.S. states are in such bad financial shape that they are getting ready for their biggest budget cuts in decades.  What do you think all of those budget cuts will do to the economy?

#8) In March, the U.S. trade deficit widened to its highest level since December 2008.  Month after month after month we buy much more from the rest of the world than they buy from us.  Wealth is draining out of the United States at an unprecedented rate.  So is the fact that the gigantic U.S. trade deficit is actually getting bigger a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?

#9) Considering the fact that the U.S. government is projected to have a 1.6 trillion dollar deficit in 2010, and considering the fact that if you went out and spent one dollar every single second it would take you more than 31,000 years to spend a trillion dollars, how can anyone in their right mind claim that the U.S. economy is getting healthier when we are getting into so much debt?

#10) The U.S. Treasury Department recently announced that the U.S. government suffered a wider-than-expected budget deficit of 82.69 billion dollars in April.  So is the fact that the red ink of the U.S. government is actually worse than projected a good sign or a bad sign?

#11) According to one new report, the U.S. national debt will reach 100 percent of GDP by the year 2015.  So is that a sign of economic recovery or of economic disaster?

#12) Monstrous amounts of oil continue to gush freely into the Gulf of Mexico, and analysts are already projecting that the seafood and tourism industries along the Gulf coast will be devastated for decades by this unprecedented environmental disaster.  In light of those facts, how in the world can anyone project that the U.S. economy will soon be stronger than ever?

#13) The FDIC’s list of problem banks recently hit a 17-year high.  Do you think that an increasing number of small banks failing is a good sign or a bad sign for the U.S. economy?

#14) The FDIC is backing 8,000 banks that have a total of $13 trillion in assets with a deposit insurance fund that is basically flat broke.  So what do you think will happen if a significant number of small banks do start failing?

#15) Existing home sales in the United States jumped 7.6 percent in April.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that this increase only happened because the deadline to take advantage of the temporary home buyer tax credit (government bribe) was looming.  So now that there is no more tax credit for home buyers, what will that do to home sales? 

#16) Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently told the U.S. government that they are going to need even more bailout money.  So what does it say about the U.S. economy when the two “pillars” of the U.S. mortgage industry are government-backed financial black holes that the U.S. government has to relentlessly pour money into?

#17) 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement.  Tens of millions of Americans find themselves just one lawsuit, one really bad traffic accident or one very serious illness away from financial ruin.  With so many Americans living on the edge, how can you say that the economy is healthy?

#18) The mayor of Detroit says that the real unemployment rate in his city is somewhere around 50 percent.  So can the U.S. really be experiencing an economic recovery when so many are still unemployed in one of America’s biggest cities?

#19) Gallup’s measure of underemployment hit 20.0% on March 15th.  That was up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year.  Do you think that is a good trend or a bad trend?

#20) One new poll shows that 76 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is still in a recession.  So are the vast majority of Americans just stupid or could we still actually be in a recession?

#21) The bottom 40 percent of those living in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.  So is Barack Obama’s mantra that “what is good for Wall Street is good for Main Street” actually true?

#22) Richard Russell, the famous author of the Dow Theory Letters, says that Americans should sell anything they can sell in order to get liquid because of the economic trouble that is coming.  Do you think that Richard Russell is delusional or could he possibly have a point?

#23) Defaults on apartment building mortgages held by U.S. banks climbed to a record 4.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010.  In fact, that was almost twice the level of a year earlier.  Does that look like a good trend to you?

#24) In March, the price of fresh and dried vegetables in the United States soared 49.3% - the most in 16 years.  Is it a sign of a healthy economy when food prices are increasing so dramatically?

#25) 1.41 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009 – a 32 percent increase over 2008.  Not only that, more Americans filed for bankruptcy in March 2010 than during any month since U.S. bankruptcy law was tightened in October 2005.  So shouldn’t we at least wait until the number of Americans filing for bankruptcy is not setting new all-time records before we even dare whisper the words “economic recovery”?

Why Housing Has Another Leg Down

Posted By on May 26, 2010

 

 by Bmoreland     05/26/2010

Every day we hear “housing has bottomed” or “experts predict housing will rebound in late 2010”. A review of the quarterly bank data reveals some somewhat contradictory numbers:

Loans Data

The data is 1-4 Family First Liens. Nonperforming loans are defined as loans 90+ Days Past Due and loans on Nonaccrual (no longer recognizing interest income).

We have another $55 Billion in Nonperforming loans just in the last year (Q1 ’10 v. Q2 ’09). This increase alone is more than we had in 2008 Q1 which precipitated the “housing crises”. The following is the nonperforming percentage graphed: 

Loans 2

Yep, things are definitely looking up.

Needless to say, the big banks are the worst culprits. The Top 4 Banks (BAC, WFC, JPM & C) are running a 17.36% nonperforming rate. A breakdown by all Asset Sizes can be found here.

An alternative way to look at the problem is to track what the banks have as Nonperforming relative to what they are Charging Off. The following table shows that our banks are sitting on $30.45 of Nonperforming loans for every $1 of Charge Offs.

loan3

Charge Offs for Q1 were $6.09 Billion v. $7.69 for Q4 2009. Please keep this in mind when you hear that since charge offs are down “we think we’ve turned the corner.” Citigroup at $22.54 is actually doing well compared to BAC, WFC & JPM.

Please note that you should review the section on the site detailing Government Guarantees to determine the financial impact on specific institutions. I’m primarily focused on housing as a whole for this discussion. Whether or not a bank gets money bank from Uncle Sam is not going to impact that house going REO or short sale.

As bad as the 1-4 Family Liens are, Construction & Development loans are worse. Indeed, virtually all housing portfolios are trending poorly – both Multifamily and 1-4 Family Junior Liens have seen an increase in their nonperforming loans.

Shameless Plug: BankRegData.com is the updated version of  the Bank Loan Performance site at wlmlab.com. You can find performance metrics for all U.S. Banks in the following areas: Loan Performance, Asset Quality, Real Estate Owned (OREO) and Income & Expense.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-housing-has-another-leg-down

Who Would’ve Thought….Iran and Russia Clash In Worst Row Since Cold War….. Russia Raps Iranian President For Political Demagoguery

Posted By on May 26, 2010

Wed May 26, 2010 8:20pm IST

 

   * Ahmadinejad calls on Medvedev to change sanctions stance

* Iran tells Kremlin chief to “think more” and be “cautious”

* Russia raps Iranian president for political demagoguery

* Worst row between Russia and Iran since Cold War

 

By Robin Pomeroy and Guy Faulconbridge

TEHRAN/MOSCOW, May 26 (Reuters) – Iran and Russia clashed on Wednesday over Kremlin support for draft U.N. sanctions against the Islamic Republic, in one of the worst rows between the two powers since the Cold War.

The public clash indicates growing concern in Tehran after the United States said Russia and China, the closest thing Iran has to big-power allies, had agreed to a draft sanctions resolution to punish Iran over its nuclear programme.

http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINLDE64P1NO20100526

Thinking Of Buying A Home Today…..Does It Make Sense?

Posted By on May 25, 2010

Why buying a home today makes little financial sense. 3 reasons why taking on a mortgage in today’s market is deep in speculation. Are homes still over valued? Tax benefit not as big as you would expect.

 

 

Tue, 25 May 2010

It is hard for many to believe that home prices in many of our largest cities are still overvalued.  Part of this distortion has to come from living in a decade long housing bubble that has adjusted the perception of value and price.  But in many areas home prices are still much too high relative to the income of local families.  When disconnects occur here, bubbles are produced.  The stock market is experiencing this since price to earnings ratios are still much too high for what businesses are drawing in through revenues.  The housing market is off by 30 percent from its 2006 peak and weakness is now appearing once again now that the tax credit has expired and the Federal Reserve is finished with their mortgage backed security buying campaign.  It only took a few weeks once artificial measures were taken off the table.

Home prices relative to income are still too high nationwide:

Source:  Visual Economics

In fact, if we look at recent data the numbers are still too high:

Median Household income:       $52,029

Median U.S. home price:             $173,100

Yet on a nationwide basis, we are getting closer to the ratio of the 1970s.  But on a more narrow level of cities and states, some areas are still very much in bubbles including California.  It is a fascinating case of consumer behavior post-housing bubble.  Since most of us have now been conditioned over the past decade that the only way to buy a home is to take out an enormous mortgage and leverage each penny of net income to a home payment, we have forgotten sounder times.  In light of this, it might appear that home prices make more financial sense in today’s climate but they do not in many areas.  Let us look at a few reasons why buying a home today is not a good idea.

Reason #1 – Smaller mortgage with higher interest rate better than big mortgage with small interest rate

One argument you hear those in the housing industry continually make is “you should buy today because rates will rise.”  What they don’t tell you is that higher rates usually mean cheaper home prices and buying a less expensive home with a smaller mortgage and higher interest rate makes much more sense than buying an expensive home with a big mortgage and cheap interest rate.  Before we walk through an example, let us look at historical mortgage rates:

Over 40 years of history shows an average 30 year mortgage rate of 9 percent.  The current average that is lower than 5 percent is an anomaly.  If we run a few scenarios, you will see that a cheap mortgage rate and an expensive home actually give buyers less power when it comes to paying down their mortgage.

We’ll run two scenarios with the current interest rate and the average to show why this occurs.  We’ll assume a same monthly payment since this is usually what is used for debt-to-income qualifications so the home price will reflect this.

Low interest rate scenario – 5% 30 year fixed

Home price:                       $250,000

30 year mortgage:           $237,500 (using a 5% down payment)

Monthly principal and interest:                  $1,274

Total interest over life of loan:                   $221,482

High interest rate scenario – 9% 30 year fixed

Home price:                       $165,000

30 year mortgage:           $156,750 (using 5% down payment)

Monthly principal and interest:                  $1,261

Total interest over life of loan:                   $297,298

On the surface, this appears to be a good deal.  By paying more with a lower rate you have more flexibility.  But let us assume this family is able to contribute $300 more per month.  What happens then?

Low interest rate scenario $300 additional monthly payment (239 payments – 19 years)

Total interest over life of loan:   $137,388

High interest rate scenario $300 additional monthly payment  (188 payments – 15 years)

Total interest over life of loan:   $135,437

Here is the big difference.  With $300 more per month, the person with the high interest rate can pay off their loan 4 years faster and save on their interest payments as well.  This is the leverage of having a higher interest rate and a lower priced home.  Also, the requirement for down payments is shifted lower since the price is moved lower.  This is good if the person ever decides to sell their home in the future because more people can qualify for the home.  The heavily exotic mortgage market simply caters to the idea that home price is the most important factor in housing.  It is not.  Affordability is the most important factor for long-term sustainability.

Tax benefits over sold?

One of the oddest pitches about buying a home is the tax deduction.  The fact of the matter is, most homeowners live in cheap enough housing that the standard deduction is all that is needed without the mortgage interest deduction being taken.  In fact, only a handful of states like California benefit from this tax deduction even though most think this helps them (probably from not understanding the complicated tax system).  To be honest, the mortgage interest break actually helps out the wealthiest in our country.

“(Tax Foundation) For tax year 2008, a little over one quarter of the nation’s tax returns claimed the mortgage interest deduction, 26.8 percent of the nation’s 143 million tax returns. Rates of home ownership are much higher than this, but many home owners don’t claim the deduction. Often they live in low-cost homes for which the deduction isn’t large enough to make a tax difference, so they don’t itemize deductions on their tax returns. In addition, home owners who have paid off their mortgages make no interest payments to deduct.

The average tax return in the U.S. deducted $3,279 in mortgage interest; that includes all tax returns, even the non-homeowners and non-itemizers. Counting only the tax returns that deducted mortgage interest, the average amount was $12,221.”

This is a stunning revelation.  The homeownership rate is approximately 67% but only 26.8% claimed the mortgage interest deduction.  So much for that sacred cow of housing right?

Reason #2 – Price to earning potential of home is still unsupported by long-term trend

Home prices in many cities are still in mini-bubbles relative to the income of families in those areas.  California is a prime example:

According to the California Association of Realtors the median home price in California is $306,000.  However the median household income is $60,000.  This means the home price is 5 times the annual household income of a family in the state.  Take for example the following:

Median household income:

1969:     $9,302

2008:     $57,000

California median home price:

1969:     $24,640

2008:     $500,000

So back in 1969, the ratio was 2.6 and at the peak it was close to 10.  Today even at 5, it may appear to be lower relative to the peak but it is still too high.  Expect this ratio to come back in line in the 3 to 4 range.  This has historically been the case for most areas across the United States.  Many states are actually back in line but many cities still think they are somehow immune to this trend.

Reason #3 – Mortgage rates will go up

The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been systematically pushing mortgage rates lower.  For example, the Federal Reserve just finished buying up $1.25 trillion in mortgage backed securities.  The Fed balance sheet is already overfilling with mortgage backed securities, loans taken from banks, and other items which never were intended to fall under their prevue:

Source:  Zero Hedge

This is not normal.  Historically we have never been in a position like this.  It is unwise to think that mortgage rates will stay low for an indefinite amount of time.  Already the credit markets are starting to push rates higher because of the risk inherent in the current debt riddled system.  Buying today assumes and is a bet that we can go into trillions of dollars of debt with no interest rate repercussions.  This is a giant gamble and the markets are acting like a volatile casino.

To buy today is a big bet.  There is too much that makes this market volatile.  Aside from the above, there is also a large amount of shadow inventory which will keep a lid on price appreciation for years to come.  Betting on housing today is probably the biggest gamble many will make.

http://www.mybudget360.com/

Utah Has Latest Snow On Record

Posted By on May 25, 2010

May 24th, 2010

SALT LAKE CITY — Many Utahns woke up to a blanket of snow Monday morning. The wet and slushy weather caused a few problems throughout the day, but the late storm was mostly an inconvenience.

The storm produced the latest spring snow ever recorded at Salt Lake City International Airport. It arrived late Sunday night and produced huge, heavy snowflakes as Salt Lake City commuters arrived for work Monday morning.

 The Wasatch Mountains got significant snow for this time of year. Nine inches were reported at Brighton.

A cooler spring has the snowpack sitting around average levels for this time of year. Julander hopes the wet weather will continue into June to build up our water supply and put off irrigation season until July.

“When you save a month and a half or two months worth of water, that results in larger carryover into the fall,” Julander said. “So, this is all money in the bank and water that we’ll be able to use later in the season, or carry it over into next year.”

Storm sets more records across the state

The record-low temperatures for May 24 were set in Alpine, Bountiful and Bullfrog.

Cedar City got a half-inch of snow Sunday night, though most of the storm’s moisture fell in central and northern Utah.

Several areas got an inch or more of rain, including Bountiful, Cottonwood Heights, Tooele, Provo and Dry Fork.

Other snow totals included seven inches at Suncrest, five inches near Peoa in Summit County and three inches at Upper Millcreek.

Proposed Next Bailout: $165 Billion For Unions

Posted By on May 24, 2010

Updated May 24, 2010

The Next Bailout: $165B For Unions

By Erik Berte

 – FOXBusiness      Taxpayers could be on the hook for another $165 billion if a bill to bail out private union pension funds makes it through Congress.

A Democratic senator is introducing legislation for a bailout of troubled union pension funds.  If passed, the bill could put another $165 billion in liabilities on the shoulders of American taxpayers.

The bill, which would put the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation behind struggling pensions for union workers, is being introduced by Senator Bob Casey, (D-Pa.), who says it will save jobs and help people.

As FOX Business Network’s Gerri Willis reported Monday, these pensions are in bad shape; as of 2006, well before the market dropped and recession began, only 6% of these funds were doing well.

Although right now taxpayers could possibly be on the hook for $165 billion, the liability could essentially be unlimited because these pensions have to be paid out until the workers die.

It’s hard to say at the moment what the chances are that the bill will pass. A hearing is scheduled Thursday, which will give the public a sense of where political leaders sit on the topic, said Willis.

Just last week President Obam said there would be no more bailouts.

 You Make It. They Take It.

More at:http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2010/05/24/lawmaker-introduces-b-union-pension-bailout/

63% Favor Repeal Of National Health Care Plan

Posted By on May 24, 2010

Health Care Law
 
63% Favor Repeal of National Health Care Plan
 
May 24, 2010

Support for repeal of the new national health care plan has jumped to its highest level ever. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of U.S. voters now favor repeal of the plan passed by congressional Democrats and signed into law by President Obama in March.

Prior to today, weekly polling had shown support for repeal ranging from 54% to 58%.

Currently, just 32% oppose repeal.

The new findings include 46% who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill and 25% who Strongly Oppose it.

While opposition to the bill has remained as consistent since its passage as it was beforehand, this marks the first time that support for repeal has climbed into the 60s. It will be interesting to see whether this marks a brief bounce or indicates a trend of growing opposition.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters now believe the health care plan will be good for the country, down six points from a week ago and the lowest level of confidence in the plan to date. Fifty-five percent (55%) say it will be bad for the nation. Only three percent (3%) think it will have no impact.

The Political Class continues to be a strong supporter of the plan, however. While 67% of Mainstream voters believe the plan will be bad for America, 77% of the Political Class disagree and think it be good for the country.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 22-23, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of all voters expect the health care plan to increase the federal deficit. Just 12% expect the bill to push the deficit down, while 13% say it will have no impact.

Fifty-five percent (55%) say the plan will make the quality of health care in the country worse. Twenty percent (20%) expect it to improve the quality of health care, and 18% think quality will stay about the same.

Fifty-five percent (55%) also expect the health care plan to drive up the cost of health care rather than achieve its stated goal of causing those costs to go down. Only 18% believe health care costs will indeed go down because of the plan’s passage. Another 16% expect costs to stay about the same.

Male voters remain more critical of the health care plan than female voters.

While sizable majorities of Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party continue to favor repeal of the plan, most Democrats remain supportive.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events

Looks Like A King Sized Tooth Ace For California’s Unfunded Pension Liabilities

Posted By on May 24, 2010

Unfortunately, our woeful tale of unfunded liabilities does not end in Washington. Several state governments are also racking up large annual deficits and even larger unfunded pension liabilities. Right here at home, in the Golden State, government finances have rapidly slipped from “okay” to “abysmal.”

California State Pension Budget

And once again, the official debt numbers tell only a small part of the story. According to a study by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, California’s pension shortfall is nearly 10 times worse than the official estimate of $56 billion.

The Stanford study examined the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) and the University of California’s Retirement System (UCRS). According to the Stanford researchers, California’s pension shortfall is not $56 billion; it is $535 billion.

Why the $479 billion discrepancy between these two calculations? One number is pure fantasy; the other is a reasonable guess. When calculating their future liabilities, the California pension systems assume annualized investment returns of 7.5 to 8 percent. The Stanford team, by contrast, ratcheted down those return expectations to 4.14% – a number that much more closely resembles both current realities in the financial markets and the pension funds’ recent, historic returns.

Based on the 4.14% rate, the Stanford team calculated the combined funding shortfall of CalPERS, CalSTRS, and UCRS prior to the 2008/2009 recession to be $425.2 billion. However, the research team reported, “Due to the $109.7 billion loss the three funds collectively sustained [in the most recent fiscal year], we estimate the current shortfall at more than half a trillion dollars.”

What will become of these debts and liabilities? How can we Americans (and Californians) possibly finance them? Most politicians in the land still pretend that America’s massive construct of debt-financed services and promises is viable.

www.dailyreckoning.com

Europe Says It’s Fixed…..Then Again, Maybe Not!

Posted By on May 24, 2010

One False Move In Europe Could Set Off Global Chain Reaction


By Howard Schneider and Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, May 24, 2010

If the trouble starts — and it remains an “if” — the trigger may well be obscure to the concerns of most Americans: a missed budget projection by the Spanish government, the failure of Greece to hit a deficit-reduction target, a drop in Ireland’s economic output.

But the knife-edge psychology currently governing global markets has put the future of the U.S. economic recovery in the hands of politicians in an assortment of European capitals. If one or more fail to make the expected progress on cutting budgets, restructuring economies or boosting growth, it could drain confidence in a broad and unsettling way. Credit markets worldwide could lock up and throw the global economy back into recession.

For the average American, that seemingly distant sequence of events could translate into another hit on the 401(k) plan, a lost factory shift if exports to Europe decline and another shock to the banking system that might make it harder to borrow.

“If what happened in Greece were to happen in a large country, it could fundamentally mark our times,” Angelos Pangratis, head of the European Union delegation to the United States, said Friday after a panel discussion on the crisis in Greece sponsored by the Greater Washington Board of Trade.

That local economic development boards are sponsoring panels on government debt in Greece is perhaps proof enough that Europe’s problems are the world’s. That the dominoes can tumble fast was shown Thursday when a new and narrowly drawn stock-trading policy in Germany helped trigger a sell-off on Wall Street.

More…

Fresh Concerns About Spain’s Economy

Posted By on May 24, 2010

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised fresh concerns about Spain’s economy, saying “far-reaching” reforms are needed to ensure its recovery.

It said the country faced “severe” challenges, including the need to urgently reform a “dysfunctional” labour market, and its banking sector.

The IMF’s comments came after Spanish authorities had to rescue regional lender Cajasur at the weekend.

Last week, Spain’s government passed austerity measures to cut its deficit.

This deficit – the money the administration has to borrow to pay for public services due to insufficient tax returns and other revenues – currently equates to 11% of Spain’s economic output.

This is substantially higher than the eurozone ceiling of 3% and another concern that the IMF has highlighted.

More…

Oil Slickonomics Part 4

Posted By on May 24, 2010

May 24, 2010
“The most recent satellite imagery indicates that the portion of the oil previously observed moving to the SE towards the Loop Current (LC) has largely been entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy to the north of the LC.  Over flight observations report this oil is in the form of very scattered light sheens. It is possible for sheens on the southern edge of the eddy to become entrained into the LC and persist as very widely scattered tar balls not visible from imagery. Model trajectories do not indicate additional oil from the source region will move south towards the LC during this forecast period.” 
Source: NOAA, May 22,  72-hour offshore trajectory forecast through May 25
So far we are still going from “bad” to “worse,” as outlined in our series on Oil Slickonomics, www.cumber.com . It’s not in the Loop Current, yet.
Meanwhile, BP is trying new measures to slow or stop the leak.  So far attempts to mitigate the flow have mostly failed.  BP and the US Coast Guard each admit that they do not know how much oil is flowing into the Gulf.  5000 barrels a day is an estimate, but there are many other estimates and they range widely.
Some leaking oil is being captured and brought to the surface.  Most is still going into the waters of the region.  NOAA has now declared about 1/5 of the Gulf’s federal waters off limits to fishing.  This is about 50,000 square miles.  Shellfish buyers told me that, essentially, if shrimp or oysters come from west of the Mississippi River they are OK and east of the river they are to be avoided.  In the region there is now a term, “Texas oysters,” to describe what is edible.  So far the western Gulf has been spared damage, while Louisiana and Mississippi are the hardest hit.
Notice NOAA’s use of the term “federal waters.”  Remember that NOAA is a US government agency.  It only deals within its jurisdiction.  In addition to the federal waters there are state jurisdictional waters, which amount to the coastlines; and there are international waters, which are beyond the NOAA jurisdiction.  We have yet to see any reports of the slick reaching international waters.
Many details may be found on the CNN website www.CNN.com.  We will not repeat them here, but we recommend readers to spend a few minutes on the CNN reporting, which has been excellent.
We will comment on three items.  First: the drilling rigs and platforms in the Gulf that are registered in the US are under the supervision of our federal government.  Others, like the one that is the source of this catastrophe, are registered in foreign jurisdictions.  That is done by the oil companies in order to save money.  There are representations made about compliance with US law.  But the evidence is that the US-registered vessels get much more inspection and scrutiny than the non-US ones.  This foreign registry issue is now an exploding area of inquiry and controversy.   
The second item is dispersants.  EPA has ordered the cessation of the use of Corexit, a dispersant that BP had been using to combat the spill.  The reason is that it is too toxic.  EPA admits that there is no precedent for the amount of dispersant used in this event and the type used.  This is truly an uncharted area.  They are now concerned enough to call for only mild dispersants, so as to reduce the risk from the toxicity.  No one knows how much damage has been done by the dispersants already used. 
Third, The New York Times reports that the laboratory used to do the sampling and testing to determine degrees of damage and eventual liability is owned by an oil-services firm that “counts BP” among its biggest clients.  Critics claim conflict of interest.  The lab owner says its work is “unbiased.”
Several websites have erroneously quoted our writings as estimating the final cost to be $125 billion.  They are in error.  We have used the $12.5 billion number and have been gradually increasing it to “tens of billions.”  I believe the website put the decimal point in the wrong place.  
If we get confirmation that the oil is in the Loop Current, then our assessment will go from the “bad” condition to the “worse” condition.  That confirmation would mean Florida’s west coast is in danger and that the possible spread around the tip of Florida has become a serous risk.  So far we have evidence that the slick reached within a few miles of the LC, but the establishment of a serous amount of oil there is still not confirmed. 
We watch; we wait; we hope.  But in our gut we know that the unfolding drama in the Gulf of Mexico is destined to become the largest and most costly oil pollution event in global history.  We reiterate our recommendation to avoid investment in BP shares or related companies.  Their liabilities grow every day.  
 
David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
 
*********
Copyright 2010, Cumberland Advisors. All rights reserved.
The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office This report has been derived from information considered reliable, but it cannot be guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
Please feel free to forward this Commentary (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.
 

France Poised To Raise Retirement Age From 60!

Posted By on May 23, 2010

Geez,   No wonder Europe has debt problems,  this may well cause rioting across France ….. Expectations are growing that France is set to remove the right to retire at 60, as it embarks on a contentious reform of its debt-laden pension system and brings public finances back into line.  
 
By Peggy Hollinger in Paris

Published: May 23 2010

Expectations are growing that France is set to remove the right to retire at 60, as it embarks on a contentious reform of its debt-laden pension system and brings public finances back into line.

Christian Estrosi, industry minister, said on Sunday the government was leaning towards an increase in the [retirement] age in its talks with unions and employers federations, despite denials from cabinet ministers over the weekend of a decision being taken.

Although there has been much speculation that France’s legal retirement age of 60  one of the lowest in Europe  would be abandoned, Mr Estrosi’s comments on national radio are the clearest statement yet of government intentions.

His comments are likely to give ammunition to unions planning a national strike on Thursday to protest against spending cuts and pension reforms.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/751a63d4-66a5-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html

New Map Of The Oil Slick In The Gulf Of Mexico

Posted By on May 23, 2010

Oil Slick

Interesting Facts About Wireless Subscribers

Posted By on May 23, 2010

Wireless Revenue

More at:  www.ingerletter.com

Thoughts For The New Week From Gene Inger

Posted By on May 23, 2010

You have North Korea threatening ‘all-out war’ now; which is precisely a situation they calculate the United States cannot afford nor permit amidst this chaos. I fear there’s a risk of miscalculation on their part, which could actually start a hot war. Then I consider their conspiratorial allies in Iran and the terrorists in Lebanon, and I’m wondering if this is a part of what indeed replicates another era; leading to wider war. (Plus the multi-carrier battle group deployments put ‘force’ in that region if needed.)

[We remain (as I noted the other day) in the most debt-ridden obsessive extended as well as dangerous times since the Industrial Revolution started. The saturation point was actually 2000, with rebounds (reflation) under Bush and the failed borrowed-buck one also under Bush and extended into Obama’s Administration. Emerging from this structure will occur in a reformed and manageable way, (but may time to transition as we expanded upon last night).]

Again I argue that government, through deception and false statistics, massaged this too high and increased the likelihood of what we’re seeing now being a bigger drop in the fullness of time, than what would be fair if they hadn’t interfered from the get-go. It also means that the conclusion of this won’t be overnight (aside periodic rebounds as we’ll all be alert for), and the total duration of the ‘controlled Depression’ will actually be ‘protracted’ and extended by virtue of how the precious stimulus was misdirected.  That’s a part of what we called for in this continuing ‘phase 2 of the Depression’ part of ‘The Inger Winter’

A political upheaval will also occur this Fall, and that’s just part of the fallout as well; a likely benefit for those who believe in proper oversight and regulations, but not insane extremism (of the left or the right) and embrace hard work and fiscal conservatism.

More at:  www.ingerletter.com

Looks Like The X-37B Unmaned Successor To The Space Shuttle Is Shrouded In Operational Secrecy

Posted By on May 23, 2010

The X-37B has a wingspan of just over 14 feet and is 29 feet long. It looks something like a space shuttle, although about a quarter of the length.  We  discused  the X-37B in an April 4, 2010 article here at The Stated Truth….To review that article, go to the categories section to the left and click National Security, then look for April 4, 2010.

Surveillance Suspected as Spacecraft’s Main Role

By WILLIAM J. BROAD
Published: May 23, 2010

A team of amateur sky watchers has pierced the veil of secrecy surrounding the debut flight of the nation’s first robotic spaceplane, finding clues that suggest the military craft is engaged in the development of spy satellites rather than space weapons, which some experts have suspected but the Pentagon strongly denies.

NASA/Boeing Phantom Works

A rendering of the X-37B, the unmanned successor to the space shuttle that began its secret debut mission last month.

Last month, the unmanned successor to the space shuttle blasted off from Florida on its debut mission but attracted little public notice because no one knew where it was going or what it was doing. The spaceship, known as the X-37B, was shrouded in operational secrecy, even as civilian specialists reported that it might go on mysterious errands for as long as nine months before zooming back to earth and touching down on a California runway.

In interviews and statements, Pentagon leaders strongly denied that the winged plane had anything to do with space weapons, even while conceding that its ultimate goal was to aid terrestrial war fighters with a variety of ancillary missions.

The secretive effort seeks “no offensive capabilities,” Gary E. Payton, under secretary of the Air Force for space programs, emphasized on Friday. “The program supports technology risk reduction, experimentation and operational concept development.”

The secretive flight, civilian specialists said in recent weeks, probably centers at least partly on testing powerful sensors for a new generation of spy satellites.

A fair amount is known publicly about the features of the X-37B because it began life 11 years ago as a project of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, which operates the nation’s space shuttles. The Air Force took over the program in 2006, during the Bush administration, and hung a cloak of secrecy over its budget and missions.

The X-37B has a wingspan of just over 14 feet and is 29 feet long. It looks something like a space shuttle, although about a quarter of the length. The craft’s payload bay is the size of a pickup truck bed, suggesting that it can not only expose experiments to the void of outer space but also deploy and retrieve small satellites. The X-37B can stay aloft for as long as nine months because it deploys solar panels for power, unlike the space shuttle.

The Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office leads the X-37B program for what it calls the “development and fielding of select Defense Department combat support and weapons systems.”

Mr. Payton, a former astronaut and senior NASA official, has acknowledged that the spacecraft is ultimately meant to give the United States new advantages on terrestrial battlefields, but denies that it represents any kind of space weaponization.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/23/science/space/23secret.html?hp

“I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than I ever have been in my career.” Says Seth Klarman, Legendary Baupost Investor

Posted By on May 22, 2010

Mr. Klarman is president of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston that manages $22 billion. His three private partnerships have returned an annual average of around 19% since inception in 1983—and nearly 17% annually over the past decade, as stocks went nowhere.
 
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2010

 From Zero Hedge………….

A few days ago we pointed out that Seth Klarman is bracing for yet another lost decade, as the legendary Baupost investor anticipates nothing good out of government incursion in capital markets, and has come up with the best description for the fake and busted and heart attack inducing market yet, comparing it to a “hostess twinkie” (full must read article summarizing his speech at the CFA Institute here). Another must read piece, for those who may have missed it the first time around, is his summary of lessons learned and unlearned from the financial crisis, found here. Today, the WSJ’s Jason Zweig has a follow up on Klarman, who, as we noted earlier “is more worried than ever” and concludes that “all we got out of this crisis was a Really Bad Couple of Weeks mentality. I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than I ever have been in my career.

From the WSJ:

To measure Mr. Klarman’s importance as an investor, you need only see the value his rivals place upon his words. You could have earned at least a 20% average annual return since 1991—better than twice the performance of the market—merely by buying and holding Mr. Klarman’s book, “Margin of Safety”: Published that year at a cover price of $25, hard copies now fetch up to $2,400. [a pdf can be found here]But the professorial Mr. Klarman speaks in public about as often as the Himalayan yeti. He made an exception last Tuesday, when I interviewed him in front of a standing-room-only crowd of 1,600 financial analysts at the CFA Institute annual meeting in Boston. He then made another exception, speaking with me over the phone later to clarify points that he feared had been misconstrued.

 

Mr. Klarman specializes in buying securities that nauseate other investors. As the credit crisis exploded, he put more than a third of his assets into high-yield bonds and mortgage-related securities. I asked him what he had meant, in a recent letter to his clients, when he compared the financial markets to a Hostess Twinkie. “There is no nutritional value,” he said. “There is nothing natural in the markets. Everything is being manipulated by the government.” He added, “I’m skeptical that the European bailout will work.”

Some members of the audience gasped audibly when Mr. Klarman said, “The government is now in the business of giving bad advice.” Later, he got more specific: “By holding interest rates at zero, the government is basically tricking the population into going long on just about every kind of security except cash, at the price of almost certainly not getting an adequate return for the risks they are running. People can’t stand earning 0% on their money, so the government is forcing everyone in the investing public to speculate.”

“We didn’t get the value out of this crisis that we should have,” Mr. Klarman told the audience. “For our parents or grandparents, it was awful to have had a Great Depression. But it was in some ways helpful to carry a Depression mentality throughout their later lives, because it meant they were thrifty with their money and prudent in their investment decisions.” He added: “All we got out of this crisis was a Really Bad Couple of Weeks mentality.”

You could have heard a pin drop as Mr. Klarman proclaimed, “I am more worried about the world, more broadly, than I ever have been in my career.” That’s because you can make good investing decisions and still end up with bad results if you reap your profits in currencies that do not hold their purchasing power, he explained.

“Will money be worth anything,” asked Mr. Klarman, “if governments keep intervening anytime there’s a crisis to prop things up?”

What is the proper trade according to Klarman?

To protect against that “tail risk,” said Mr. Klarman, Baupost is buying “way out-of-the-money puts on bonds”—options that have no value unless Treasury bonds plummet. “It’s cheap disaster insurance for five years out,” he said.

Later, I asked Mr. Klarman what he would suggest for smaller investors who share his worries.

“All the obvious hedges”—commodities and foreign currencies, for example—”are already extremely expensive,” he warned.

Especially gold. “Near its all-time high, it’s a very hard moment to recommend gold,” said Mr. Klarman.

Mr. Klarman pointed out that his own ideas “on bottom-up opportunities in undervalued securities are more likely to be accurate than my top-down views on what’s going to happen in the world at large.” In other words, while you might want to insure against a disaster scenario, you shouldn’t bet the ranch on it.

And, said Mr. Klarman, one of the best ways to protect against a decline in purchasing power is to buy whatever is “out of favor, loathed and despised.” So forget about gold or other trendy hedges. Instead, wait patiently for markets—European stocks, perhaps—to get so cheap that they turn most investors’ stomachs. Then you can pounce.

And cheap they will get: there is only so much artifical propping the government can do.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/seth-klarman-more-worried-about-world-ever-redux

British Petroleum: U.S. Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster To Try New Procedure Called “Top Kill” To Cap Deep Sea Well……

Posted By on May 22, 2010

LONDON        BP PLC’s chief executive told staff he was frustrated by the company’s failure to stop an oil leak in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and warned an attempt to do so starting next week could fail.

In an email to staff late Friday, Tony Hayward said, “Like all of you, and the outside world, I have shared a huge sense of frustration that we have not yet been able to stop the leak” that started a month ago when a rig leased by BP exploded and sank in the Gulf of Mexico.

Mr. Hayward said that an effort by BP to cap the well using heavy drilling fluids, a process known as “top kill” that’s due to be implemented early next week, “would be another first for this technology at these water depths and so, we cannot take its success for granted.”  BP said it would be at least Tuesday before engineers could start attempting the top kill, Associated Press reported.

Should the effort misfire, scientists told AP, it could lead to new problems. Ed Overton, a Louisiana State University professor of environmental studies, said the crippled piece of equipment called a blowout preventer could spring a new leak that could spew untold gallons of oil if there’s a weak spot that is vulnerable to pressure from the heavy mud.

Most of BP’s attempts to contain or shut down the spill have failed, but things began looking up for the company last Sunday when it began to remove at least some oil from the site of the leak. The company is also drilling two relief wells to permanently shut down the well, an effort that is scheduled to take months.

The U.K.-based oil giant has been using long tubes to siphon oil from the damaged well and transfer it to a vessel on the ocean’s surface. BP was collecting about 2,200 barrels a day from the well, a company spokesman said Saturday. The rate was in line with the amount that BP said was being collected the previous day.  Workers collect oil and debris that washed up onto a beach in Grand Isle, La.

On Thursday, BP had said that it was collecting 5,000 barrels a day, which until then had been the official estimate of the rate of oil flowing from the well a mile below the water’s surface. BP was forced to acknowledge that officials didn’t have a clear sense of how much oil was leaking.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704546304575260641893421742.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLETopStories

Net Worth Of The U.S. Presidents

Posted By on May 22, 2010

 

Net Worth of the U.S. Presidents

By Mark J. Perry          May 22, 2010  

From The Atlantic: Having examined the finances of all 43 presidents, we calculated the net worth figures for each in 2010 dollars. Because a number of presidents, particularly in the early 19th Century, made and lost huge fortunes in a matter of a few years, the number for each man is based on his net worth at its peak.

We have taken into account hard assets like land, estimated lifetime savings based on work history, inheritance, homes, and money paid for services, which include things as diverse as their salary as Collector of Customs at the Port of New York to membership on Fortune 500 boards. Royalties on books have also been taken into account, along with ownership of companies and yields from family estates.

The net worth of the presidents varies widely. George Washington was worth more than half a billion in today’s dollars. Several presidents went bankrupt.

What’s interesting is that George Washington was probably the wealthiest U.S. president with $525 million of net worth, depending on how you count the entire Kennedy family estate of $1 billion toward’s JFK’s net worth. Also, it’s pretty amazing that Bill Clinton’s net worth of $38 million is almost as much as the combined net worth of both Bush Presidents together ($43 million total), see chart above.

http://wallstreetpit.com/29019-net-worth-of-the-u-s-presidents

Why 1,000 Bank Failures Will Occur Before The Great Recession Is Over!

Posted By on May 22, 2010

This is interesting and very telling, the 4 largest banks in the U.S. are larger then all of the 8,095 other banks in the FDIC system!    Uh…..is that right, Yep, that’s right. 

 

FDIC next government trillion dollar bailout? Since January of 2000 to October of 2007 we had 27 bank failures. From January 2008 to May 2010 the FDIC has closed down 237 banks. Why 1,000 bank failures will occur before the Great Recession is over.

 

May 22, 2010

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will be the next billion and possibly trillion dollar government bailout.  We have the FDIC that insures over 8,000 banks with an insurance fund that is in the negative.  From 2000 to October of 2007 only 27 banks were closed down by the FDIC.  Nearly eight full years and 27 banks were shut down in the face of epic gambling from the banking industry.  Since the recession started, the FDIC has closed down 237 banks with more to come.  Without a doubt, given the enormous amount of bad debt and commercial real estate loans we will have 1,000 bank failures by the time this recession is over.  Is this so hard to envision?  In April, 17 banks were closed and so far in May, 15 banks have seen their doors shut.  The rate of bank failures is increasing.

Why will this happen?  Because there are at least 763 more banks that are full to toxic waste in the U.S.:

Even the FDIC has 700 banks on their troubled institution list.  Keep in mind failures like WaMu and IndyMac which cost billions of dollars weren’t even on the initial list.  The issue at hand is you have 4 banks that dominate 55 percent of all banking assets:

We already know that the government is unwilling to break up these banks in an orderly fashion.  But the other 8,000 banks don’t have this guarantee.  In fact, if you look at this from a corrupt banking perspective, a giant amount of bank failures is good for these few gigantic banks.  Customers will have less banking options and will have to rely on a tiny group of banks that run like monopolies.  This will provide a fertile ground for anti-competitive practices and will result in unfriendly consumer products in the end.  We’ve already seen that.  These bailouts simply help to consolidate power and transfer wealth to a select few in the economy.

Then on the other hand, you have the FDIC spending millions if not billions each week closing down banks.  We are told that the FDIC is completely solvent.  But at this rate it will be broke rather soon (the DIF is already negative although they have a bit more in cash reserves by front-running premiums for years to come).  Don’t think this will happen?  Here is irony for you; the FDIC which insures banks needs insurance from the U.S. Treasury:

“(FDIC) Chairman Bair distinguished the DIF’s reserves from the FDIC’s cash resources, which included $22 billion of cash and U.S. Treasury securities held as of June 30, as well as the ability to borrow up to $500 billion from the Treasury. “A decline in the fund balance does not diminish our ability to protect insured depositors,” Chairman Bair concluded.”

You know exactly where this is heading.  Why put that $500 billion figure out there?  Why not $20 billion or $50 billion?  If we’ve learned any lesson with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or AIG is that Wall Street will raid the taxpayer for every penny they have and use supposed government entities to dump their junk onto the public.

Consider the two giant GSEs for a moment.  You hear Wall Street berate these companies but banks would have zero mortgage market if it wasn’t for them.  Wall Street investment banking is a giant group of crony welfare capitalist that is anti-competitive and has perverted the current economy.  I read current articles on how some people are surprised of the current market volatility.  What do you expect?  27 months of the worst recession since the Great Depression and no fundamental change has happened in the way Wall Street conducts business.

The DIF at the FDIC is in the red:

“(FDIC) The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) balance improved for the first time in two years. The DIF balance – the net worth of the fund – increased slightly to negative $20.7 billion, from negative $20.9 billion (unaudited) on December 31, 2009. The fund balance reflects a $40.7 billion contingent loss reserve that has been set aside to cover estimated losses. Just as banks reserve for loan losses, the FDIC has to set aside reserves for anticipated closings. Combining the fund balance with this contingent loss reserve shows total DIF reserves of $20 billion. Total insured deposits increased by 1.3 percent ($70.0 billion) during the first quarter.”

This is the latest press release for Q1 of 2010.  It has gotten worse.  In one week in Q2 the FDIC had to pay out roughly $7 billion on 7 bank failures in one week.  You know where this is going and everything has become one giant bailout.

FDIC insured institutions have assets of $13 trillion.  We have $3 trillion in commercial real estate loans and many banks are valuing these loans at optimistic day prices that were up to $6 trillion at their peak.  Just with CRE we will see at least $1 trillion in losses.

Gear up for another taxpayer bailout !

http://feeds.feedburner.com/mybudget360/QePx

32 States Have Borrowed From The Federal Government To Make Unemployment Payments; California Has Borrowed $7 Billion

Posted By on May 21, 2010

Friday, May 21, 2010

EconomicPolicyJournal.com has learned that 32 states have run out funds to make unemployment benefit payments and that the federal governmant has been supplying these states with funds so that they can make their  payments to the unemployed. In some cases, states have borrowed billions. As of May 20, the total balance outstanding by 32 states (and the Virgin Islands) is $37.8 billion.

The state of California has borrowed $6.9 billion. Michigan has borrowed $3.9 billion, Illinois $2.2 billion.

Below is the full list of the 32 states (and the Virgin Islands) that have borrowed from the Fed to make unemployment payments, and the amounts that remain borrowed as of May 20 . (Numbers in red are billions)

Alabama      $ 283 million
Arkansas        330 million
California        6.9 billion
Colorado       253 million
Connecticut    498 million
Delaware         12 million
Florida           1.6 billion
Georgia         416 million
Idaho            202 million
Illinois            2.2 billion
Indiana           1.7 billion
Kansas           88 million
Kentucky     795 million
Maryland     133 million
Mass.          387 million
Michigan        3.9 billion
Minnesota    477 million
Missouri       722 million
Nevada        397 million
New Jersey   1.7 billion
New York     3.2 billion
N.C.              2.1 billion
Ohio             2.3 billion
Penn.            3.0 billion
R.I.              225 million
S.C.            886 million
S.D.              24 million
Tennessee     21 million
Texas           1.0 billion
Vermont        33 million
Virginia       346 million
Virgin Islands 13 million
Wisconsin     1.4 billion
 
Total         $37.8 billion
 

U.S. Begins Massive Military Build Up Around Iran, Sending Up To 4 New Carrier Groups In Region

Posted By on May 20, 2010

 

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2010

As if uncontrollable economic contagion was not enough for the administration, Obama is now willing to add geopolitical risk to the current extremely precarious economic and financial situation. Over at Debkafile we read that the president has decided to “boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants.” With just one aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran, the U.S. has decided to send a clear message , and has decided to increase the U.S. aircraft carrier presence in the region by a 400-500% CAGR. 

From Debka:

Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.

For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.

It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.

The USS Truman’s accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) – which has 7 squadrons – 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)

Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.

We can’t wait for Iran to feel completely unthreatened by this escalation and to decide to take no action whatsoever as the Nobelists push it even more into a corner from which the only escape, to a rational player, would be outright aggression… Which begs the question just how an irrational player would react.

More at:  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-begins-massive-military-build-around-iran-sending-4-new-carrier-groups-region

 

 

More On The Gulf Of Mexico Oil Disaster…..A Professor Of Engineering Told Congress That The Reality Is 95,000 Barrels Of Oil Are Gushing Out Of The Oil Leak Daily!

Posted By on May 20, 2010

Is British Petroleum lying?      95,000 Barrels Are Leaking Daily, Says Engineer….A professor of engineering told Congress that the reality is 95,000 barrels of oil are gushing out of the oil leak daily.That’s 4 million gallons a day.   Not the 5,000 barrels reported.
                                                                 
                                                      ~~~~~~~~~~
 

FDIC: ‘Problem’ Banks at 775

Posted By on May 20, 2010

Ten percent of all banks are in trouble according to the FDIC, and I’m sure they aren’t telling us everything…………A total of 775 banks, or one-tenth of all U.S. banks, were on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s list of “problem” institutions in the first quarter, as bad loans in the commercial real-estate market weighed on bank balance sheets.
 
 
 

 

FDIC: ‘Problem’ Banks at 775

WASHINGTON   A total of 775 banks, or one-tenth of all U.S. banks, were on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s list of “problem” institutions in the first quarter, as bad loans in the commercial real-estate market weighed on bank balance sheets.

Poor loan performance in other sectors also continued to hurt banks, with the total number of loans at least three months past due climbing for the 16th consecutive quarter, FDIC officials said in a briefing on Thursday.

“The banking system still has many problems to work through, and we cannot ignore the possibility of more financial market volatility,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said.

.

Pimco’s El-Erian Says We Are In Unchartered Waters Here!

Posted By on May 20, 2010

By Rita Nazareth

May 20 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 12 percent decline from April’s high may worsen amid concern that Europe’s debt crisis will derail global growth, said Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.

“This is not a typical retracement,” El-Erian, 51, whose firm runs the world’s biggest bond fund, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News. “We are in uncharted waters on account of several issues, including what is going on in Europe and other important structural regime changes. In economic terms, European developments are unambiguously bad for global growth.”

European stocks retreated as uncoordinated attempts by policy makers to resolve the region’s debt crisis unnerved investors. Euro-area finance chiefs will meet in Brussels tomorrow to hammer out details of the emergency lending mechanism in a rescue package for debt-burdened governments.

‘Risk Aversion’  “This will amplify the impact of higher global risk aversion,” El-Erian wrote. “Some areas — like the U.S. Treasury bond market — will also feel the impact of capital inflows on account of flight-to-quality. After over-emphasizing the cyclical tailwinds, markets around the world are now pricing in the structural headwinds, doing so in a rather volatile fashion,” El-Erian wrote.

El-Erian has forecast an extended period of below-average economic growth, increased regulation and lower consumption in what Pimco, which manages more than $1 trillion from Newport Beach, California, has called the “new normal.” The U.S. economy faces a “protracted post-crisis resetting” as high unemployment persists, he wrote in a Bloomberg News column in February.

Investors have wrongly priced in an “orderly” withdrawal of stimulus measures, a rebound in bank lending and coordinated government policy to restore growth, El-Erian wrote. That means Wall Street projections for gains in 2010 may prove incorrect and prices will slump, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPcF.fPJgadU&pos=5

Arizona Votes For A Tax Hike

Posted By on May 19, 2010

Here is the scoop,  or should we say the poop!    

 
In case you missed it, Arizona voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 100 on Tuesday, which raises the state sales tax by one percentage point for three years. A whopping two-thirds majority voted for the move.  Arizona’s budget crisis is one of the worst in the country, partly because it was at ground zero in the housing bust and partly because the legislature had assiduously cut taxes during the good times. Tax revenues have plunged 34 percent since 2007, and the projected budget gap for next year was about 30 percent. Gov. Brewer had already proposed chopping money for higher education by 25 percent; eliminating the state health insurance program for poor children; closing all the juvenile correction facilities; and closing half the state parks. The state had already mortgaged the state capitol and other buildings to raise $735 milion in fresh cash.
 

By Edmund L. Andrews|May 19, 2010

In case you missed it, Arizona voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 100 on Tuesday, which raises the state sales tax by one percentage point for three years. A whopping two-thirds majority voted for the move, which is supposed to bring in about $900 million a year. That’s a very bitter pill for people in a conservative state with one of the lowest tax burdens in the country, and anti-tax types from outside the state are already howling.

Is this a sign that Republican voters on Main Street may be more willing to grapple with fiscal reality than Republican leaders in Washington? Not neceessarily. If anything, Arizona shows how ugly things have to get before voters will grudgingly support tax increases as well as brutal spending cuts.

In fact, there’s a widespread suspicion in Arizona that Republican Governor Jan Brewer reluctantly signed that notorious new anti-immigrant law because Republicans need   ed throw some red meat to conservatives and distract them from the unavoidable realities of the state’s budget plight. In other words, ugly budget problems spawn ugly political behavior not a good omen.

Arizona’s budget crisis is one of the worst in the country, partly because it was at ground zero in the housing bust and partly because the legislature had assiduously cut taxes during the good times. Tax revenues have plunged 34 percent since 2007, and the projected budget gap for next year was about 30 percent. Gov. Brewer had already proposed chopping money for higher education by 25 percent; eliminating the state health insurance program for poor children; closing all the juvenile correction facilities; and closing half the state parks. The state had already mortgaged the state capitol and other buildings to raise $735 milion in fresh cash. And all that was based on the assumption that voters would approve the tax increase. In case voters had rejected the tax hike, the state had prepared another $826 million in contingency spending cuts aimed at K-12 schools, universities and other education programs.

Would Republican leaders in Washington stick to their anti-tax pledges if they faced those kinds of choices? The Wall Street Journal editorial page thinks they should. And Arizona’s two Republican US senators  McCain and Jon Kyl  both came out against the sales tax increase. But McCain and Kyl don’t actually have to fix their state’s budget calamity. Would they and other Republican in Congress be so resolute if they actually had to vote for for all those those spending cuts? I doubt it.

http://wallstreetpit.com/28703-arizona-votes-for-a-tax-hike

Oil News…Specifically, the Miami Herald points out that – according to the Coast Guard – The Spill Is Getting Worse In Spite Of The Insertion Tube:

Posted By on May 19, 2010

New BP Insertion Tube Isn’t Working

 
Submitted by George Washington on 05/19/2010

  

Tube inside the leaking oil pipe – unfortunately – isn’t doing very much.

Specifically, the Miami Herald points out that – according to the Coast Guard – the spill is getting worse in spite of the insertion tube:

 The massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill is growing despite British Petroleum’s effort to siphon some of the spewing crude from its ruptured deepwater well, the U.S. Coast Guard official leading the cleanup warned Tuesday.

BP doubled its estimate of the amount of crude being captured by a mile-long recovery tube to 2,000 barrels per day – but what percentage of the spill that is remains uncertain. BP has said it thinks that 5,000 barrels of crude a day are leaking from the well, but a video made public Tuesday after the tube was placed inside the broken pipe showed clouds of crude oil still billowing into the sea.

Another video provided the first public view of a second leak much nearer the runaway well’s failed blowout preventer spewing oil, too. A BP robot took that video on Saturday and Sunday.

The Coast Guard commandant, Adm. Thad Allen, said that despite the siphoning, the spilled oil is spreading and now stretches from western Louisiana to Florida’s Key West. The extent of the spill was straining even the substantial resources deployed for one of the worst ecological disasters in recent history, he said.

Kevin Grandia explains:

Two new videos have surface showing footage of the BP oil leak at the source 5,000 feet down at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

These new video are important because they show footage (if the time stamp on the video of May 17th is correct) taken after the oil company responsible for stopping the leak – British Petroleum (BP) – had inserted a tube into the leaking pipe in an attempt to siphon off some of the oil and pump it up to an awaiting ship on the surface.

Looking at this video there remains serious question about the exact amount of oil that is actually flowing from the burst pipe as well as how much is being captured by the inserted siphon:

***

Another video has also been released showing the leak from the riser that is described on US Senator Bill Nelson’s website as video footage of the plume “after the intervention” – you can clearly see in the video a large kink in the riser that is spewing oil. The first half of this video is marked May 15th – the day before the insertion tube was placed in the leaking pipe.

The video then switches (at about the 2 min. 30 sec. mark) to a close of shot of the leak time stamped the next day, May 16th after the insertion tube was put in place

Compare this to similar footage posted last week:

Indeed, BP either doesn’t know or won’t tell how much oil is leaking. As the Miami Herald notes:

Under sharp questioning from Nelson and other lawmakers, Lamar McKay, the head of BP America, said the company was focused on sealing off the spill but couldn’t offer estimates of how much oil was flowing into the ocean.

And see this. BP has refused to let independent scientists inspect the site so that they could estimate the rate of the oil leak.

BP’s next plan is to try to seal the leak using heavy drilling fluids and then cement:

BP likely will try to shut down the well completely late this week using a technique called “top kill,” BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles said at a news conference Monday. The process involves pumping heavy drilling fluids through two 3-inch lines into the blowout preventer that sits on top of the Macondo wellhead a mile underwater. This would first restrict the flow of oil from the well, which then could be sealed permanently with cement.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/new-bp-insertion-tube-isnt-working

U.S. Economy One In Ten Mortgages Delinquent (New Record), One In Twenty In Foreclosure

Posted By on May 19, 2010

 
by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2010
 

From Goldman’s Jan Hatzius.

Delinquencies and Foreclosures Rise Again

Data just released by the Mortgage Bankers’ Assn show that more than one-tenth of all US mortgages are delinquent, a new record high. Homes in foreclosure edge up slightly as well. One caveat: the increases are driven by seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the huge shifts in this sector over the past few years.

Mortgage delinquencies: 10.06% in Q1 (Q4: 9.47%).
Mortgages in foreclosure: 4.63% in Q1 (Q4: 4.58%).

 

Here Are Some  KEY POINTS:

1. The Mortgage Bankers’ Assn Q1 report shows a further rise in delinquent mortgages, even in the 30-60 day range, somewhat surprising given the improvement in the economy and labor market in recent months. The increases are spread among both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages, both prime and subprime; only FHA mortgages saw a lower delinquency rate than the prior quarter. One issue here is that the delinquency figures incorporate a positive seasonal adjustment, which should probably be taken with a grain of salt given the seismic shifts in this sector over the past few years (in fact, the MBA itself notes this issue; see http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/72906.htm). Before seasonal adjustment, the figures generally show improvement.

2. New foreclosures continue at a substantial rate of 1.23%, the 9th consecutive quarter where at least 1% of mortgages went into foreclosure. The total inventory of foreclosures (non-seasonally adjusted) rose to 4.63% of the stock of housing in the MBA’s survey (just over 2 million homes in foreclosure).

http://www.zerohedge.com/

Whopping $9 Billion In Equity Fund Outflows Following Flash Crash ….Looks Like A “Hot Potato Market”

Posted By on May 19, 2010

05/19/2010 14:01 -0500

ICI has reported the most recent fund flow data, and it’s a doozy. In the week following the flash crash, domestic equity funds saw a whopping $8.6 billion in outflows. As a result, the YTD outflow is over $9 billion, so in essence after almost going back to breakeven before May 6, equity funds are now once again solidly in the red, even as Primary Dealers and HFTs continue to play “hot potato market” with each other. In addition to the carnage in domestic equities, all other mutual funds saw an outflow in the prior week, including foreign equities ($3.7) billion, Hybrid ($0.7) billion, and total bond funds ($1.0) billion, for the first total net outflow across all products in over a year.We will bring you AMG/Lipper fund data once we get it, although we do not expect any notable discrepancies.

Equity Mutual Fund Flowshttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/whopping-9-billion-equity-fund-outflows-following-flash-crash

U.S. State Pensions Becoming Federal Issue

Posted By on May 19, 2010

By Nicole Bullock in New York and Hal Weitzman in Chicago

Published: May 19 2010 20:44 | Last updated: May 19,2010

Illinois used to have a plan to pay off the gaping shortfall in the pension funds that pay retired teachers, university employees, state workers, judges and politicians, Dan Long recalls.

Mr Long, director of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the non-partisan auditing arm of the Illinois state legislature, remembers that, back in 1994, the state laid out a proposal that would have paid off most of what was then a $17bn gap by 2011.  But Illinois could not stick to the plan.

With financial year 2011 less than six weeks away, the pension arrears of the 1990s look quaint. Instead of a balanced system, the state faces unfunded liabilities of about $78bn, the biggest pension hole in the US, and contributions of more than $4bn for 2011, the largest single element of its $13bn budget deficit.

Illinois is the poster child of unfunded pensions in the US. But state retirement systems could become a national concern, new research shows.

Joshua Rauh, associate professor of finance at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University said that, without reform, some state pensions might run out within the decade. By 2030, as many as 31 states may not have the money to pay pensions. And, if these funds exhaust their assets, the size of payments for the benefits they have promised will be too large to cover through taxes, putting pressure on the federal government for a bail-out that could potentially cost more than $1,000bn, he says.

“It is more than a local problem,” Mr Rauh said. “The federal government could be on the hook.”

Estimates put the unfunded liabilities at between $1,000bn and $3,000bn after years of states promising benefits but not contributing enough in both good times and bad to cover them.

Many states base their calculations on an 8 per cent annual return and use an accounting method called smoothing, which staggers gains and losses over several years, two factors that some observers warn could mask the size of the shortfalls. The problem has come to the fore with the financial crisis and recession. Pension funds, like most money managers, suffered losses. The tax revenues that fund annual contributions to pensions, along with essential services such as healthcare and education, have plummeted, leaving little room to reimburse the losses.

States have begun reforms, with some lowering return expectations and raising employee contributions and retirement ages.

Mr Rauh said subsidising pension borrowing would cost a net $75bn with new contributions to the national Social Security programme offsetting some of the subsidies.

By his calculations, which assume the 8 per cent return, Illinois would run out by 2018 followed by Connecticut, New Jersey and Indiana in 2019. Some 20 states will have run out by 2025.

Five states would never run out, including New York and Florida, and 17 other states have a horizon of 2030 or beyond.

“We had to make cuts: education, healthcare, local government support and not-for-profit providers,” Mr Megna said of the last year’s budget process.

New York’s governor has proposed borrowing from the pension system, which is about 94 per cent funded, as the state did after the September 11 attacks, and repaying it with interest if low tax collections persist, Mr Megna said.

For fiscal 2010, Illinois sold $3.5bn of bonds to pay for its annual contribution.

But in an election year, there is no political support in Springfield, the capital of Illinois, for another bond issue, particularly since it requires a two-thirds majority in the state legislature.

The most likely outcome is that the state will defer the issue to next year. “That’ll have an impact in terms of lost investment opportunities, and they’ll have to sell some of the portfolio to pay the pensions,” said Mr Long.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b9d90504-6379-11df-a844-00144feab49a.html

Mortgage Delinquencies And Foreclosures Break Records

Posted By on May 19, 2010

ap
Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer,     Wednesday May 19, 2010

WASHINGTON (AP) — The mortgage crisis is dragging on the economic recovery as more homeowners fall behind on their payments.

Analysts expect improvement soon, but the number of homeowners in default or at risk of foreclosure will have a lingering effect on the broader economy.

More than 10 percent of homeowners with a mortgage had missed at least one payment in the January-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. That’s a record high and up from 9.1 percent a year ago.

A big jump in the number of borrowers who have missed three months of mortgage payments drove the increase.

Gene Inger…..We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!

Posted By on May 19, 2010

We ain’t seen nothing yet.  There’s an old story of a guy who, when asked how he went broke during the Great Depression, responded: ‘slowly; then all at once’. We’re in a new era; which while there will be snapbacks and melancholy attempts to restore the past excesses (whether consumerism or governmental spending levels); they will fail. Because there is no choice. While the U.S. is better-able (not being wedded to a monetary union such as the Eurozone situation) to cope; it must address challenges, a whole lot smarter than the way they have approached it heretofore (stopgap efforts) with respect to misdirected stimulus, higher taxes, and no willingness to revolutionize the approaches to government spending, much less tackle tough entitlement issues.

They spend like crazy; they tried to restore with ‘free money’ and ‘official’ low rates, in essence the era was a throwback to a former reflation effort, which we warned could not succeed, albeit it could buy time (and it did!). In 2002, for the first ‘great reflation’, new members should know we were totally bullish, more so than anyone really, and stuck by our upside guns for a solid 4-5 years; rightly so after calling the secular 2000 top. I think you might ask does that mean ‘this time is different’. I do hate the term but yes it is. It’s worse now, as the borrowing capacities are really hampered because of the misdirection in stimulus funding we identified, not just because of a political bias, but because of what was best for the USA. That’s the only reason we pointed it out.

America can be the ‘mother of all debt tsunamis’; not Greece, not peripheral Europe, and not even Japan or the UK, though every one of them has significant issues also. It’s a global challenge; and it’s not easily resolvable no matter who’s in political office.

The industrialized nations of the world, carrying unimaginable and growing burdens of debt, are not going to be able to get out of this mess without savage reductions in living standards over the coming years, not months. If we don’t have cheap energy it will be even worse (Oil is particularly an enigma now because aside lower demand, a degree of ‘risk premium’ has to be factored-into pricing as well, which limits the floor. Do not believe the nonsense about Iran shifting nuclear materials to Turkey; already they followed-that-up by saying they’re increasing the number of centrifuges in use.)

Essentially we’re at the leading edge (not trailing edge as those arguing recovery that is orthodox and conventional as underway) of a long descent, from the heights of the past, and the profligate lending and spending we warned of for years being bullish at least 80% of the time, but warning that the ‘piper had to be eventually paid’. We saw what was happening in early 2007, and concluded that time was rapidly arriving.

All the misdirected stimulus has done is shift funds around, failed to repatriate jobs to the U.S. (lots of political talk to that end, but absolutely no action to counter what has in fact been a protectionist policy by China, and others, essentially through currency and other manipulative practices… that if we did it they’d holler about; but we are quiescent as we owe them too much money, so the pillaging of the USA is allowed to continue), and few American politicians (much less reporters) will tell the truth on this.

Given the ‘multiplier effect’ (of interest-on-interest as rising deficits, with considerably shrinking income including tax revenues provides, at virtually all levels of governance unless rates are jacked-up to such onerous levels that is truly politically and socially unpalatable..aka the EU as an example) you do NOT have the luxury most politicians typically presume about not having to confront this until the ‘outlier’ years (say 8 or 10 ahead of us); and in fact could double (or worse) the Federal deficit within four years (or so). To address that requires immediate remedial actions, and that has untoward potential effects not only on the level of governmental services but the ability of what is presumed, a necessary forthcoming increase in Federal bailouts of state budgets.

It is simply untenable, if not optimistically giddy, to look at this reality confronting the United States as a whole, or individual states as well, to proceed trying to dismiss it by saying ‘economic growth and recovery will offset the challenge’. It will not even as and if we recover at the most optimistic rates the most bullish of all analysts suggest (and they are wrong by the way). That is why the crunch time is sooner rather than in later years, and why there is no solution aside cutting spending, and relative austerity in Europe, and unfortunately here with respect to governmental services at least. By the way, the Administration does not accept this, as just this week they argued for a ‘speedup’ of governmental hiring, which is exactly the wrong thing to do (note they’re doing this ‘speedup’ while talking about fiscal responsibility…again; they talk the talk about trimming spending, but then go ahead and do it anyway). It is thus a short-term palliative at best, sort of a symptomatic relief while letting serious underlying illness not only fester, but metastasize. Let it occur long enough, and a cure is far tougher.

America’s once-broad tax base (they don’t tell you the truth about who is paying and they don’t tell you the truth about unemployment levels overall, or that around 40% of the middle class making under $50,000 during the 1990’s is now unemployed; that is a horrific destruction of the American middle-class, which is what had contributed to a fantastic admiration of the United States throughout the world, no matter what else is heard; because there is no nation in the history of mankind that built a larger middle class, without a class system per se; and without complex apprenticeships or so on).

As our tax base erodes and you get away from millions of ordinary people working so hard to earn a decent living wage and paying a fair share, you contribute to what has been another quiet secret; the ‘globalization’ of the Western world, which has meant to level the playing field to their (other parts of the world) level (bringing them up not in a benevolent way, as fair-minded leaders always desired in the post-World War II era), but rather at the expense of destroying the great vast American middle-class in a way that not only outsourced our manufacturing jobs, but made citizens dependent on government, as well as a complex ‘cycling’ of funds based on what I have called a ‘petrodollar’ formula (that still works, but empowers terror incidentally), but created a vicious cycle with trading countries, which did something the ‘petrodollar’ cycle didn’t do for the most part: destroy American jobs. Inflation or not, higher prices or not; the jobs remained and salaries adjusted. Trying the petrodollar approach with China has worked, from a monetary perspective; while it destroyed the fabric of middle America which will takes years to rebuild, and only helped China’s industry; surely not the US. Add to that the ‘protectionism’ they employed (while pretending it’s us) and you got it.

The currency recycling with China and others of manufacturing revenues, was a jobs ‘destroyer’, and was expanded upon by those seeking ‘one-world’ governance (to wit: reduced the idea of military conflict conceptually years ago, but what they didn’t count on was how it all tied together to bring the world up or down concurrently with all risks economically; eliminating significant cushion at times of need).

Further, it contributed in my thinking to a perception that they could simply continue this, and leverage artificial debt even more persistently, at the expense of forgetting that even Keynes (who is still dead as I say, and unable to explain what I am quite absolutely sure about) never suggested the use of such stimulation to be other than for temporary measures, and by creditor not debtor nations. What has been done in his economic name has proselytized history in a way that threatens to lay-prostrate our society if we don’t get back control fairly fast. I said this for a long time; just look.

Finally; what some politicians will argue in the declining scale of cost-benefit analysis will take years, has an historical capacity to accelerate when the populace realize the deception that is afoot (such as talking about deficits, and not overall debt). That too is a reason businesses hold-in-their reigns; take homage at those who distain Cisco being bold enough (until they modulated their tone under pressure) telling the truth about declining business overseas), and probably next Hewlett Packard saying more or less the same. One can say that this will be resolved by debasing our currency of course; and eventually that probably happens. But not yet; and not while Deflation is the order of the day, which as I’ve noted makes servicing debt even more onerous.

www.ingerletter.com

Conspiracy Of Banks Rigging State Municipal Bond Deals

Posted By on May 18, 2010

By Martin Z. Braun and William Selway

May 18, 2010 

(Blomberg) — A telephone call between a financial adviser in Beverly Hills and a trader in New York was all it took to fleece taxpayers on a water-and-sewer financing deal in West Virginia. The secret conversation was part of a conspiracy stretching across the U.S. by Wall Street banks in the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market.

The call came less than two hours before bids were due for contracts to manage $90 million raised with the sale of West Virginia bonds. On one end of the line was Steven Goldberg, a trader with Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. On the other was Zevi Wolmark, of advisory firm CDR Financial Products Inc. Goldberg arranged to pay a kickback to CDR to land the deal, according to government records filed in connection with a U.S. Justice Department indictment of CDR and Wolmark.

West Virginia was just one stop in a nationwide conspiracy in which financial advisers to municipalities colluded with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Wachovia Corp. and 11 other banks.

They rigged bids on auctions for so-called guaranteed investment contracts, known as GICs, according to a Justice Department list that was filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on March 24 and then put under seal. Those contracts hold tens of billions of taxpayer money.

California to Pennsylvania

The workings of the conspiracy — which stretched from California to Pennsylvania and included more than 200 deals involving about 160 state agencies, local governments and non- profits — can be pieced together from the Justice Department’s indictment of CDR, civil lawsuits by governments around the country, e-mails obtained by Bloomberg News and interviews with current and former bankers and public officials.

“The whole investment process was rigged across the board,” said Charlie Anderson, who retired in 2007 as head of field operations for the Internal Revenue Service’s tax-exempt bond division. “It was so commonplace that people talked about it on the phones of their employers and ignored the fact that they were being recorded.”

Anderson said he referred scores of cases to the Justice Department when he was with the IRS. He estimates that bid rigging cost taxpayers billions of dollars. Anderson said prosecutors are lining up conspirators to plead guilty and name names.

“This will go on for a long time and a lot of people will be indicted,” he said in a telephone interview.

South Korea: North Responsible For Torpedo Attack

Posted By on May 18, 2010


By John Pomfret and Blaine Harden
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, May 18, 2010; 2:47 PM

South Korea will formally blame North Korea on Thursday for launching a torpedo at one of its warships in March, causing an explosion that killed 46 sailors and heightened tensions in one of the world’s most perilous regions, U.S. and East Asian officials said.

South Korea reached its conclusion that North Korea was responsible for the attack after investigators from Australia, Britain, Sweden and the United States pieced together portions of the ship at the port of Pyongtaek, 40 miles southwest of Seoul. The Cheonan sank on March 26, following an explosion that rocked the vessel as it sailed in the Yellow Sea off South Korea’s west coast.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because South Korea has yet to disclose the findings of the investigation, said that subsequent analysis determined that the torpedo was identical to a North Korean torpedo that had previously been obtained by South Korea.

South Korea’s conclusion underscores the continuing threat posed by North Korea and the intractable nature of the dispute between the two Koreas. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak must respond forcefully to the attack, analysts said, but not in a way that would risk further violence from North Korea, whose artillery could — within minutes — devastate greater Seoul, which has a population of 20.5 million.

South Korea’s report will also present a challenge to China and other nations. China waited almost a month to express its condolences to South Korea for the loss of life, and, analysts and officials said, has seemed at pains to protect North Korea from criticism.

South Korea will request that the U.N. Security Council take up the issue and is looking to tighten sanctions on North Korea, the officials said. The United States has indicated it would support such an action, U.S. officials said. Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told his South Korean counterpart on Monday that Japan would do the same, the Japanese news media reported Tuesday.

More at: www.washingtonpost.com

Newt Gingrich Forecasts Obama Loss

Posted By on May 18, 2010

Heads up …………..Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gives President Barack Obama only a 20 percent chance of being reelected  and says he might be the one to give Obama the boot.  Giving predictions for November’s midterms, Gingrich said House Republicans will pick up somewhere between 40 and 65 or 70 seats enough to gain control of the House. I believe John Boehner will be speaker in January, he said.

Gingrich said he even sees a chance of Republican control of the Senate. If they can beat Barbara Boxer [in California], I think that [Mitch] McConnell is going to be the Senate majority leader.

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/37399.html

Of 4.5 Million US Tax Filers With Income Over $200,000, 13,142 Paid No US, 4,354 Paid No Worldwide Income Tax

Posted By on May 17, 2010

05/17/2010 

The latest IRS Statistics Of Income Report is out. In it, the IRS focuses on the wealthy segment of US population, i.e., those falling over the proverbial $200,000/year cutoff. What the IRS finds, is that in 2007, of the 4,576,315 tax returns with expanded income of $200,000 or more, 13,142 (0.287%) had no US income tax liability, and 4,354 (0.095%) had no worldwide income tax liability. These numbers are an increase of 2,100 and 32, respectively, over 2006. Some other interesting, but less relevant to the administration findings: when measuring income in current (not constant) dollars, the percentage of Americans making over $200,000 in 2007 was 3.201%, or 4.576 million, of all 143 million tax returns. Back in 1976, this number was 0.078%, or 67,580 of all 86.6 million tax returns, or 67.6 times less. However, when measured in 1976 constant dollars (indexed for inflation), only 618,154 American made the 2007 equivalent of $200,000 from 1976. This number is 10.5 times more than the 58,991 tax filers who made the same amount 30 years earlier.

Katla Volcano Rumbling

Posted By on May 17, 2010

Katla Volcano Just Rumbled



Permalink

katla-earthquake-may-17

Is the sleeping Katla waking up?

On May 17, 2010 08:32 UTC, The Iceland Met office indicates that a small earthquake has occurred at the Katla location. In what could be an early indication of the event that is expected to occur (an eruption of Katla), a small earthquake is reported at the site. Although a single earthquake is not a precursor of an eminent eruption, it could be the first ’sigh’ of the awakening powerful giant.

Historically, Katla has erupted after the eruption of it’s close neighbor, Eyjafjallajokull, which first erupted on April 14, 2010 and is ongoing at this moment. Magma channels beneath the two volcanoes are thought to be interconnected. A Katla eruption would likely be about ten times as powerful at the Eyjafjallajokull eruption and could cause worldwide disruption while expelling huge volumes of volcanic ash into the stratosphere which would circle the globe potentially for years, depending upon the magnitude of the eruption.

Not to be alarmist, but have you started  your food storage plan? Basic survival preparedness is a personal responsibility that was simply a way of life of our ancestors. Let’s not forget how.

Will Iceland’s Katla Volcano Blow Next?

All About Oil

Posted By on May 17, 2010

With only so much oil to go around, every new off-take agreement signed by the Chinese with the Saudis or Venezuelans, for example, is a net loss in supply to other bidders, notably the world’s largest energy consumer, the United States.

That the Chinese, and other countries, are aggressively securing long- term energy arrangements, coincidental with what appears to be an official US diplomatic initiative to actively offend all the major energy producers, makes the securing of US-controlled reserves and production critical.

The problem with cheap oil can be seen in the chart here.

Oil Discoveries

And it has been confirmed in a recent report issued by the US military, conveniently summarized by DailyFinance: “A recent Joint Operating Environment report issued by the US Joint Forces Command suggests that the US could face oil shortages much sooner than many have anticipated.

“The report speculates that by 2012, surplus oil production capacity will dry up; by 2015, the world could face shortages of nearly 10 million barrels per day; and by 2030, the world will require production of 118 million barrels of oil per day, but will produce only 100 million barrels a day.”

The US needs secure oil sources, and “on the double,” as a military type might say. And so the pressure has increased for the US government to remove its actual and effective regulatory bans on offshore drilling.

www.dailyreckoning.com

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill……..Scientists Find Giant Plumes Of Oil Forming Under The Gulf

Posted By on May 15, 2010

 
Jim Wilson/The New York Times

By JUSTIN GILLIS
Published: May 15, 2010

Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given.

“There’s a shocking amount of oil in the deep water, relative to what you see in the surface water,” said Samantha Joye, a researcher at the University of Georgia who is involved in one of the first scientific missions to gather details about what is happening in the gulf. “There’s a tremendous amount of oil in multiple layers, three or four or five layers deep in the water column.”

The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.

Dr. Joye said the oxygen had already dropped 30 percent near some of the plumes in the month that the broken oil well had been flowing. “If you keep those kinds of rates up, you could draw the oxygen down to very low levels that are dangerous to animals in a couple of months,” she said Saturday. “That is alarming.”

Scientists studying video of the gushing oil well have tentatively calculated that it could be flowing at a rate of 25,000 to 80,000 barrels of oil a day. But the government, working from satellite images of the ocean surface, has calculated a flow rate of only 5,000 barrels a day.

The undersea plumes may go a long way toward explaining the discrepancy, suggesting that much of the oil emerging from the well could be lingering far below the sea surface.

working,” Doug Suttles, BP’s chief operating officer for exploration and production, said Saturday after flying over the area above the oil well. “The oil in the immediate vicinity of the well and the ships and rigs working in the area is diminished from previous observations.”

Many scientists had hoped the dispersants would cause oil droplets to spread so widely that they would be less of a problem in any one place. If it turns out that is not happening, the strategy of using the chemicals could come under greater scrutiny. Dispersants have never been used in an oil leak of this magnitude a mile under the ocean, and their effects at such depth are largely unknown.

Much about the situation below the water remains unclear, and the scientists stressed that their results were preliminary. Interviewed on Saturday by satellite phone, one researcher aboard the Pelican, Vernon Asper of the University of Southern Mississippi, said the shallowest oil plume the group had detected was at about 2,300 feet, while the deepest was near the seafloor at about 4,200 feet.

Dr. Joye said the findings about declining oxygen levels were especially worrisome, since oxygen is so slow to move from the surface of the ocean to the bottom. She suspects that oil-eating bacteria are consuming the oxygen at a feverish clip as they work to break down the undersea plumes.

While the oxygen depletion so far is not enough to kill off sea life, the possibility looms that oxygen levels could fall so low as to create large dead zones, especially at the seafloor. “That’s the big worry,” said Ray Highsmith, head of the Mississippi center that sponsored the mission, known as the National Institute for Undersea Science and Technology.

“This is a new type of event, and it’s critically important that we really understand it, because of the incredible number of oil platforms not only in the Gulf of Mexico but all over the world now,” Dr. Highsmith said. “We need to know what these events are like, and what their outcomes can be, and what can be done to deal with the next one.”

Shaila Dewan contributed reporting from Robert, La.

 Complete Article At: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/us/16oil.html?hp

U.S. Bankruptcies Resume Upward Path In 1st Quarter

Posted By on May 14, 2010

Fri May 14, 2010 3:01pm EDT

 * Nevada has most filings per capita, Arizona filings soar

 By Jonathan Stempel

 NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) – U.S. bankruptcy filings resumed their upward climb in the first quarter, nearly equaling their highest level since 2005, as high unemployment and a still-strained housing market squeezed consumers.

There were 388,148 filings between January and September, up 17 percent from 330,394 a year earlier, according to data released Friday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. Consumer filings rose 18 percent to 373,541, while business filings edged up 2 percent to 14,607.

Filings also rose 4 percent from last year’s fourth quarter, the government data show. That had been the first period with a quarter-to-quarter drop in filings since 2006.

For the 12 months ended March 31, there were 1.53 million filings, up 27 percent from a year earlier and the most since 2006. Some experts expect the number to stay above 1.5 million in future periods.

“We’re not anyway near through our housing situation, and are going to see more foreclosures, perhaps for another three years,” said David Jones, president of the Association of Independent Consumer Credit Counseling Agencies in Fairfax, Virginia. “The job situation is also serious. It’s not just that people cannot find jobs, but many who have found jobs are finding them at lower wages.”

First-quarter filings were the second-most since the fourth quarter of 2005, when Congress overhauled federal bankruptcy laws to make it tougher for people to file. They nearly equaled the 388,485 filings in the third quarter of 2009.

According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, Arizona had a 69 percent rise in total filings over the last year, the biggest increase in any federal district.

On a per capita basis, Nevada had the most filings, with 11.7 per 1,000 people.

Both states have been among the hardest hit by the nation’s housing and commercial real estate problems.

Tennessee ranked second per capita, followed by Georgia, Indiana and Alabama. Among the most populous states, California was 8th per capita, Texas 48th, New York 41st and Florida 15th. Alaska had the fewest filings per capita, with 1.54 per 1,000 people.

In the quarter, about 73 percent of bankruptcy filings came under Chapter 7 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, 26 percent under Chapter 13, and most of the rest under Chapter 11.

Consumers use Chapter 7 to get a fresh financial start. Chapter 13 lets people discharge some debts. Businesses often use Chapters 7 and 11. Farmers use Chapter 12 of the code. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

More at     http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1418760920100514

* Consumer filings up 18 pct, business filings up 2 pct

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