New Rules To Clarify Cost Of Mortgages In 2010, It’s Not Just Monopoly Money Any Longer

Posted By on December 30, 2009

Monopoly Money

DECEMBER 31, 2009

Rules to Clarify Cost of Mortgages

[rules to clarify cost of mortgages]

Americans have long struggled with the complexities of shopping for home mortgages. Now Uncle Sam is trying to help.

Federal rules that take effect Friday require mortgage lenders and brokers to give consumers better estimates of the barrage of costs they incur when taking out home loans. The new rules mandate a standard three-page Good Faith Estimate that urges consumers to shop around for the best loan and helps them compare lenders’ offerings.

The rules, announced by the Department of Housing and Urban Development in November 2008, are an update of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, a 1974 law known as Respa. Though the changes come too late to help the millions of Americans who made poor loan choices during the housing boom, “it’s going to be a help,” said Jack Guttentag, a retired Wharton School finance professor who operates a mortgage advice Web site, www.mtgprofessor.com.

One difficulty of shopping for mortgages is that the lender with the lowest rates often isn’t offering the best deal. High fees can wipe out the benefits of low rates, and little-noticed features such as prepayment penalties can burn borrowers. Even for savvy consumers, it is hard to compare different combinations of rates, “points” (paid in exchange for a lower rate), fees and other terms. Lenders often sprinkle in lots of confusing charges, such as processing and messenger fees. Dickering over the smaller fees could distract borrowers from the bigger picture of total costs.

To address those problems, the new estimate form requires lenders to wrap all the fees they control into one “origination charge.” Mr. Guttentag recommends that borrowers focus on two items as they shop: the interest rate and the “adjusted origination charge,” which includes any points paid to lower the rate.

Good Faith Estimates have been around for decades, but there was no standard format. Under the new rules, lenders and mortgage brokers will be required to give consumers the estimate forms within three days of receiving a loan application.

Lenders aren’t allowed to increase the origination fee from the estimate. Some other charges not included in the origination fee, such as title services and recording charges, can increase by as much as a combined 10% from the estimate. Estimates for other charges, such as homeowner’s insurance and other services provided by third parties selected by the borrower, aren’t subject to such limits.

Title insurance typically is the largest fee, and the new forms let consumers know they don’t have to accept the insurer suggested by the lender. Mr. Guttentag says title insurance can be “vastly overpriced” and consumers should take the time to shop for it.

HUD has estimated that the revised requirements will save $700 for the typical consumer, partly because of the greater ability to shop intelligently.

Some lenders and brokers may struggle in the coming weeks to cope with the new rules, warned Vicki Bott, a deputy assistant secretary at HUD. “It’s a huge operational change for the industry,” she said.

Settlement firms — which handle the closing of home purchases — will be required to issue a new version of the HUD-1 form used in closings. This new HUD-1 includes a comparison of the estimated and final costs, as well as a summary of the loan terms.

More  at   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126222090787511123.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

Smile, Your On Candid Camera……The New Scanners

Posted By on December 30, 2009

Security experts say the scanners may be the best defense in stopping attacks such as an attempt to bomb a Detroit-bound aircraft Christmas Day.

Smile, Your On Candid Camera.....The New Scanners

It Sure Looks Like We’re Losing Control Of The Uranium Issue

Posted By on December 30, 2009

Kazakhstan Claims To Be Worlds Biggest Uranium Miner

By Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: December 30 2009

Kazakhstan said on Wednesday it had overtaken Canada and Australia to become the world’s biggest uranium miner as nations rich in the resource ramp up production to sell into a resurgent nuclear power industry.

The announcement came the day after allegations that Kazakhstan was close to clinching a $450m deal to sell 1,350 tons of uranium to Iran. Exports to Iran of purified uranium known as “yellowcake” would breach United Nations sanctions imposed on Tehran for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment programme.

More…..http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/73d365e4-f575-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

This Is Probably Not The Smartest Thing To Do To A Country That We Push Our Dollars And Debt On!

Posted By on December 30, 2009

U.S. Slaps New Duties On Chinese Steel

By Alan Rappeport in Washington

Published: December 30 2009

The US will impose tough new duties on Chinese steel piping imports, raising tensions with its biggest trading partner and emerging geopolitical rival.

With Chinese piping imports worth $2.8bn in 2008, the case is the biggest against China brought before the International Trade Commission, a US trade body.

It follows other US actions to counter a flood of goods that it claims China is exporting at below market prices.

The ITC’s ruling will slap Chinese companies with additional taxes ranging from 10 per cent to 16 per cent, and backs an earlier claim from the commerce department that argued that the US steel industry was being harmed by Chinese dumping. The US government has been under intense pressure to protect domestic industries to stem the flow of job losses.

Heads Up Everyone…….Pessimism In U.S. Stocks Fell To The Lowest Level Since 1987

Posted By on December 30, 2009

Pessimism about U.S. stocks among newsletter writers fell to the lowest level since April 1987, six months before the 20 percent crash in the S&P 500 known as Black Monday. The proportion of bearish publications among about 140 tracked by Investors Intelligence fell to 15.6 percent yesterday from 16.7 percent a week earlier.

Sentiment has improved since October 2008, when the financial crisis drove bears to a 14-year high of 54.4 percent……..I know things are better than a year ago, but are they so dramatically better with little downside risk?” Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, wrote in an e-mail to clients today. “Combine this sentiment reading with the VIX at 20 and 2010 will be interesting, especially with the very likely prospect of higher interest rates.”

The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Has Quietly Ballooned To Near Record Highs

Posted By on December 30, 2009

From Ian Mathias The 5-Minute Forecast

“One good reason to guard your finances in 2010: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has quietly ballooned back to near-record highs. The Fed announced yesterday that it’s balance sheet expanded to $2.22 trillion last week, it’s grossest level in nearly a year and just a hair from an all time high. Hmmm… if Mr. Bernanke assures us the recession is ‘very likely over,’ then why is the Fed balance sheet in crisis mode?  What are they worried about?  Here’s the answer:

Fed Balance Sheet

“The Federal Reserve went from a non-existent player in the mortgage backed security market a year ago to owning $904 billion of the stuff today.  The ‘private’ bank has clearly moved its aim from the financial sector to housing, loading up on MBS, debt spilling out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and Treasury bonds (a handy way to suppress mortgage rates).

How Do You Think Your Income Stacks Up Against Others

Posted By on December 29, 2009

How Your Income Stacks Up

 

by Kevin McCormally

Where do you rank as a taxpayer? You may not feel rich earning $35,000 a year, but you’re in the top half of taxpayers. Make $70,000, and you earn more than 75 percent of fellow taxpayers.

Even as the Great Recession ends, we know the economic wounds it inflicted will take years to heal. The national unemployment rate has breached 10 percent, and unemployment is higher than 12 percent in California and above 15 percent in Michigan. A new study from the Department of Agriculture found that nearly 50 million Americans struggled at some point in 2008 to get enough to eat.

More than 40 million Americans are officially living in poverty. And you might be surprised at how little income it takes to not be considered poor by the federal government. For 2008, the poverty threshold for a single person under age 65 was an income of $11,201, or less than $1,000 a month. For a family of four, the threshold was $21,834. For a family of six, $28,769.

With that perspective, you may wonder just how your income stacks up against that of your fellow citizens. New statistics from the IRS provide an answer. The numbers here come from an analysis of 2007 tax returns, the most recent ones that have been studied.

The data show that an income of $32,879 or more puts you in the top half of taxpayers. Earning a bit more than twice that much — $66,532 — earns you a spot among the top 25 percent of all earners. You crack the elite top 10 percent if you earn more than $113,018.

And $410,096 buys top bragging rights: Earn that much or more and you’re among the top 1 percent of all American earners.

Kiplinger has developed an online calculator to quickly show you — based on your personal adjusted gross income — into which income category you fall and, as a bonus, what percentage of the nation’s tax burden is borne collectively by you and your fellow citizens who are in that income category. The following table shows the income categories and the percentage of income earned and tax burden paid by each category.

Breakdown Of Income

 

 

Copyrighted, Kiplinger Washington Editors, Inc

Euro Zone At Risk In 2010

Posted By on December 29, 2009

The European Commission warns that public finances in half of the 16 euro-zone nations are at high risk of becoming unsustainable. Governments will spend the next year and beyond balancing the urgent need to fix public-sector debt and deficits — without imperiling what appears to be a feeble economic recovery. Even the staunchest optimists in Brussels and Frankfurt see a rocky process, with rating firms poised for more downgrades and bond markets meting out daily judgment over how governments are doing.

Euro Zone At Risk
From The Wall Street Journal

Comments From Meredith Whitney, Wall Streets Hottest Bank Analyst

Posted By on December 28, 2009

Mortgage Anxieties Mean Limbo for Fannie and Freddie ………..Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which buy home mortgages from banks and package them into bonds sold to investors, have been bailed out with $1.5 trillion in direct and indirect government aid.   The approaching withdrawal of Fed support in the form of the mortgage-bond purchases risks a very, very scary situation, said Meredith Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC in New York.   Mortgage rates would soar, endangering the economic recovery, if private buyers failed to step in to buy the companies’ debt, she said.   The Fed has been the only buyer in the market, Whitney told Bloomberg Radio in an interview. If they pulled back from the market or stopped buying from the market, we think there’s an asset collapse here.

U.S. Fixed Income In A Pickle For 2010…..Bottom line: Everyone has major problems at home, and they are more focused on the supply than the demand side of the equation. What options does this leave for the administration? Very few, and all of them are ugly.

Posted By on December 28, 2009

U S Fixed Income Has To Increase

 

Elevenfold… Or Else

 

by Tyler Durden on 12/25/2009 17:31 -0500  From www.zerohedge.com

As everyone is engrossed by assorted groundless Christmas (and other ongoing bear market) rallies, and oblivious to the debt monsters hiding in both the closet and under the bed, Zero Hedge has decided it is about time to present the ugliest truth faced by our ‘intellectual superiors’ and their Wall Street henchman who succeeded in pulling off Goal #1 for 2009 – the biggest ever bonus season (forget record bonuses in 2010… in fact, scratch any bonuses next year if what is likely to transpire in the upcoming 12 months does in fact occur).

If someone asks you what happened in 2009, the answer is simple – two things. There was a huge credit and liquidity crunch, and then there was Quantitative Easing. The last is the Fed’s equivalent of band-aiding a zombied and ponzied corpse, better known as the US economy. It worked for a while, but now the zombie is about to go back into critical, followed by comatose, and lastly, undead (and 401(k)-depleting) condition.

In 2009, total supply of all USD denominated fixed income, net of maturities, declined by $300 billion from $2.05 trillion to $1.75 trillion. This makes sense: the abovementioned crunches stopped the flow of credit from January until well into April, and generally firms were unwilling to demonstrate to the market how clothless they are by hitting the capital markets until well into Q2 if not Q3. What happened was a move so drastic by the Fed, that into November, the worst of the worst High Yield names were freely upsizing dividend recap deals (see CCU) – the very same greed and stupidity that brought us here. Luckily, so far securitization and CDOs have not made a dramatic entrance. They likely will, at which point it will be time to buy a one-way ticket for either our southern or northern neighbor, both of which, in the supremest of ironies, transact in a currency that will survive long after the dollar is dead and buried.

Back to the math… And here is the kicker. Accounting for securities purchased by the Fed, which effectively made the market in the Treasury, the agency and MBS arenas, but also served to “drain duration” from the broader US$ fixed income market, the stunning result is that net issuance in 2009 was only $200 billion. Take a second to digest that.

And while you are lamenting the death of private debt markets, here is precisely what the Fed, the Treasury, and all bank CEOs are doing all their best to keep hidden until they are safely on their private jets heading toward warmer climes: in 2010, the total estimated net issuance across all US$ denominated fixed income classes is expected to increase by 27%, from $1.75 trillion to $2.22 trillion. The culprit: Treasury issuance to keep funding an impossible budget. And, yes, we use the term impossible in its most technical sense. As everyone who has taken First Grade math knows, there is no way that the ludicrous deficit spending the US has embarked on makes any sense at all… none. But the administration can sure pretend it does, until everything falls apart and blaming everyone else for its fiscal imprudence is no longer an option.

Out of the $2.22 trillion in expected 2010 issuance, $200 billion will be absorbed by the Fed while QE continues through March. Then the US is on its own: $2.06 trillion will have to find non-Fed originating  demand. To sum up: $200 billion in 2009; $2.1 trillion in 2010. Good luck.

Zero Hedge 1

As we pointed, the number one reason why 2010 is set to be a truly “interesting” year is a result of the upcoming explosion in US Treasury issuance. Fiscal 2010 gross coupon issuance is expected to hit $2.55 trillion, a $700 billion increase from 2009, which in turn was  $1.1 trillion increase from 2008. For those of you needing a primer on the exponential function, click here. But wait, there is a light in the tunnel: in 2011, gross issuance is expected to decline… to $1.9 trillion.

And while things are hair-raising in “gross” country (not Bill…at least not yet), they are not much better in netville either. Net of maturities, 2010 coupon issuance will be about $1.8 trillion, a 45% increase from the $1.3 trillion in FY 2009 (and the paltry $255 billion in 2008).

Zero Hedge 2

Now everyone knows that the average maturity of the UST curve has become a big problem for Tim Geithner: nearly 40% of all marketable debt matures within a year (a percentage that has kept on growing). In fact, the Treasury provided guidance in its November 2009 refunding, in which it stated that it intends “to focus on increasing the average maturity” of its debt after relying heavily on Bill issuance in H2. Once again, we wish Tim the best of luck.

Why our generous best intentions to the US Treasury? Because unless the US consumer decides to forgo the purchase of the 4th sequential Kindle and buy some Treasuries (and not just any: 30 Year Bonds or bust), the presumption that the Bond printer will have the option of finding vast foreign appetite for its spewage is a very myopic one. We already know that China is a major question mark, and will aggressively be looking at pumping capital into its own economy instead of that of Uncle Sam’s – at some point the return on investment in its own middle class will surpass that of funding the rapidly disappearing US middle class. That tipping point could be as soon as 2010.

As for Japan – the country has plunged into its nth consecutive deflationary period. Whether or not the finance minister announces yet another affair with the Quantitative Easing whore on any given day, depends merely on what side of the bed he wakes up on. The country will have its hands full monetizing its own sovereign issuance, let alone ours.

Lastly, the UK – well, with the country set to have zero bankers left in a few months, we don’t think the traditionally third largest purchaser of US debt will be doing much purchasing any time soon.

None of this is merely speculation: October TIC data confirmed these preliminary observations. It will only become more pronounced in upcoming months.

How about that great globalization dynamo: emerging markets? Alas, they have their hands full with issuing their own record amounts of both sovereign and corporate debt as well: in 2009 gross EM debt issuance reached an astounding $217 billion, $29 billion higher than the previous record in 2007. Gross EM issuance was particularly high in the last quarter at $73 billion, with October breaking the record for the largest ever monthly gross issuance of emerging market global bonds at $38 billion (January is traditionally the busiest month of the year.) With $81 billion, 2009 was notably a record year for sovereign bonds, while gross issuance of corporate bonds amounted to $136 billion, the second highest level after that of 2007 with $155 billion.

 Zero Hedge 3

Bottom line: everyone has major problems at home, and is more focused on the supply than the demand side of the equation.

What options does this leave for the administration? Very few, and all of them are ugly. As we stated earlier on, the options for the Fed are threefold:

  1. Announce a new iteration of Quantitative Easing. This will be met with major disapproval across all voting classes (at least those whose residential zip codes do not start with 10xxx or 068xx), creating major headaches for Obama and the democrats which are already struggling with collapsing polls.
  2. Prepare for a major increase in interest rates. While on the surface this would be very welcome for a Fed that keeps hinting that deflation is the biggest concern for the economy, Bernanke’s complete lack of preparation from a monetary standpoint (we are surprised the Fed’s $200 million reverse repos have not made the late night comedy circuit yet) to a forced interest rate increase, would likely result in runaway inflation almost overnight. The result would be a huge blow to a still deteriorating economy.
  3. Engineer a stock market collapse. Recently investors have, rightfully, realized there is no more risk in equities, not because the assets backing the stockholder equity are actually creating greater cash flow (as we demonstrated recently, that is not the case), but simply because taxpayers have involuntarily become safekeepers for the entire stock market, due to Bernanke’s forced intervention in bond and equity markets. Yet the President’s Working Group is fully aware that when the time comes to hitting the “reverse” button, it will do so. Will the resultant rush into safe assets be sufficient to generate the needed endogenous demand for Treasuries is unknown. It will likely be correlated to the size of the equity market drop.

If the Fed decides on option three, we fully believe a 30% drop (or greater) in equities is very probable as the new supply/demand regime in fixed income becomes apparent. We hope mainstream media takes the ideas presented here and processes them for broader consumption as indeed the Fed is caught in a very fragile dilemma, and the sooner its hand is pushed, the less disastrous the final outcome for investors. Then again, as Eric Sprott has been pointing out for quite some time, it could very well be that the US economy has become merely one huge Ponzi, and as such, its expansion or reduction on the margin is uncontrollable. We very well may have passed into the stage where blind growth is the only alternative to a complete collapse. We hope that is not the case.

More at Zero Hedge   http://www.zerohedge.com/article/brace-impact-2010-private-demand-us-fixed-income-has-increase-elevenfold-or-else

Morgage Rates Could Be Heading For 7.5% To 8%

Posted By on December 27, 2009

If this happens, it will kill what ever bottoming action we’ve seen in real estate, crush commercial real estate and put the economy back in recession…….Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, almost the highest in a decade, Greenlaw said.

                                                             **************
Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as Geithner Confronts Deficits

By Oliver Biggadike and Daniel Kruger

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) — If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale.

Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, almost the highest in a decade, Greenlaw said.

Investors are demanding higher returns on government debt, boosting rates this month by the most since January, on concern President Barack Obama’s attempt to revive economic growth with record spending will keep the deficit at $1 trillion. Rising borrowing costs risk jeopardizing a recovery from a plunge in the residential mortgage market that led to the worst global recession in six decades.

“When you take these kinds of aggressive policy actions to prevent a depression, you have to clean up after yourself, Greenlaw said in a telephone interview. Market signals will ultimately spur some policy action but I’m not naive enough to think it will be a very pleasant environment.

Yields on the 3.375 percent notes maturing in November 2019 climbed 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 3.8 percent last week, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price fell 2 5/32 to 96 1/2. They’ve risen 61 basis points this month, the most since a jump of 63 basis points in January as government efforts to unfreeze global credit markets lessened the appeal of the securities as a haven.

The U.S. will face increased competition from other debt issuers, spurring investors to demand higher yields as the Federal Reserve ends a $1.6 trillion asset-purchase program, according to James Caron, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy in New York at Morgan Stanley. The central bank was the largest purchaser of Treasuries in 2009 through a $300 billion buyback of the securities completed in October.

The Treasury will sell a record $2.55 trillion of notes and bonds in 2010, an increase of about $700 billion, or 38 percent, from this year, Morgan Stanley estimates. Caron says total dollar-denominated debt issuance will rise by $2.2 trillion in the next 12 months as corporate and municipal debt sales climb.

Mortgage rates last reached 7.5 percent in 2000 as productivity gains slowed after the demise of some Internet companies. The average rate on a typical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 5.05 percent in the week ended Dec. 24, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.

Yields on mortgage securities issued by Fannie Mae rose to a four-month high of 4.54 percent last week. Fannie and Freddie securities are used to guide borrowing costs on almost all new U.S. home lending.

Higher borrowing costs as the U.S. shows signs of beginning to emerge from the longest economic contraction since the 1930s puts Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in a situation similar to one faced by his predecessor Robert Rubin.

“This is the re-emergence of the bond market vigilantes, said Mitchell Stapley, the Grand Rapids, Michigan-based chief fixed-income officer for Fifth Third Asset Management, who oversees $22 billion. The vigilantes are saying, OK guys you want to do this, you’re going to pay a higher price for it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiGQrHp46pc4&pos=2

It’s Just Monopoly Money Folks

Posted By on December 27, 2009

“(ABC) “         The Senate voted Thursday to raise the ceiling on the government debt to $12.4 trillion, a massive increase over the current limit and a political problem that President Barack Obama has promised to address next year.

The Senate’s rare Christmas Eve vote, 60-39, follows House passage last week and raises the debt ceiling by $290 billion. The vote split mainly down party lines, with Democrats voting to raise the limit and Republicans voting against doing so. There was one defection on each side, by senators whose seats will be on the ballot next year: GOP Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio and Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.”

Gramps Says “Just Relax” We’ve Got A New Year To Look Forward To

Posted By on December 27, 2009

             Gramps Say's Relax

We’ve All Heard The Old Saying “Who Done It”…….Well This Is “Who Got It” As In The Money Handout From The U.S. Government

Posted By on December 27, 2009

Who Got It.....

Ever Wonder About How Retail Sales Components Breakdown?

Posted By on December 27, 2009

Retail Sales Components

How Do You Spell Scumbag In English……How About B A N K

Posted By on December 27, 2009

Goldman Sachs and Others Investigated for Betting Against Securities They Created


Sunday, December 27, 2009

Betting against their own securities has prompted numerous investigations of Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street institutions. Prior to the financial collapse, Goldman and others figured out a way to package risky securities, such as subprime mortgages, and sell them to investors who were told they were buying sound investments. Little did the investors know that the firms selling the synthetic collateralized debt obligations (or CDOs) turned around and bet that the CDOs would fail—costing pension funds and insurance companies billions of dollars.

“The simultaneous selling of securities to customers and shorting them because they believed they were going to default is the most cynical use of credit information that I have ever seen,” Sylvain Raynes, an expert in structured finance at R & R Consulting in New York, toldThe New York Times. “When you buy protection against an event that you have a hand in causing, you are buying fire insurance on someone else’s house and then committing arson.”

In addition to Goldman, CDOs were sold and bet against by Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and Tricadia Inc.—an investment company whose parent firm’s CDO management committee was overseen by Lee Sachs. Sachs is now a special counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

The Best Commodity Gainers……….

Posted By on December 25, 2009

                  commodities

Growing Inflation Expectations In 2010 With Steepest Yield Curve Ever

Posted By on December 24, 2009

 From The Daily Reckoning

Steep Yield Curve

The yield curve – the difference in yield between a 2-year Treasury note and a 10-year Treasury note – sits at a record 285 basis points. Fork over your money to the gubmint for two years and you get a paltry 0.88%.

But 10 years? You get 3.73%. Yes, that’s paltry too. But it’s hard to ignore the gap being this wide. Bond buyers expect a substantially higher yield if they’re going to lend money to Uncle Sam for the next 10 years. That means they sense the value of the dollars they get back will be diminishing.

At least that’s what they sense right now. We hesitate to suggest the bond vigilantes are out in force, but at least they’re out. There’s also evidence the mortgage vigilantes are out wandering around again. The spread between 10-year notes and 30-year mortgage rates is widening, and also points to growing inflation expectations for 2010.

Then again, some of the most celebrated hedge fund managers are seeing the same thing we’re seeing. “An increase in the monetary base leads to an increase in the money supply, which leads to inflation,” John Paulson said in a recent speech. (He also retains his big positions in gold.) Julian Robertson is also playing the yield curve with long-dated out-of-the-money puts on Treasuries.

Short term, we may get a clearer picture when the Treasury plans to auction a record-tying $118 billion in notes next week.

YRC The Worlds Largest Trucking Freightline Has Until Yearend To Avert Bankruptcy

Posted By on December 24, 2009

YRC Worldwide Inc  was the comination of Yellow Line Freight, Roadway and USF Corp.  They’re now the largest trucking freightline…….Uh, here is what Yellow Corp said back in 2005 with the purchase of USF Corp……………….OVERLAND PARK, Kan. & CHICAGO, Ill.  –This provides immediate and nationwide scale in next day and regional markets–Significant synergies and operational efficiencies expected–Cash and stock transaction expected to be accretive within twelve months–A transaction value of approximately $1.37 billion (based on the Yellow Roadway trailing 90-day closing stock price as of February 18, 2005). Yellow Roadway will also assume an expected $99 million in net USF debt, resulting in a total enterprise value of approximately $1.47 billion……….Yep, now look at the mess they built all on a mountain of debt.   Morons.

By Shannon D. Harrington and Pierre Paulden

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — YRC Worldwide Inc. has less than two weeks to persuade bondholders to accept a debt exchange and prevent a bankruptcy filing that its employees’ union says may force the biggest U.S. trucking company to liquidate.

YRC, which has pushed back the deadline for the swap three times this month, must complete the tender by Dec. 31 to avoid a $19 million payment of interest and fees that would leave the trucker in an “unsustainable” position, the Overland Park, Kansas-based company said yesterday in a regulatory filing.

Bonds and shares fell yesterday as the company, which posted more than $1.7 billion in losses in the past five quarters, said the percentage of creditors who agreed to the exchange fell to 57 percent from 75 percent on Dec. 15. YRC, facing a slump in freight demand, is locked in a struggle with a group of bondholders who own derivatives that would profit if the company defaults, people familiar with the situation say.

“Bondholders are in the driver’s seat,” said David Ross, a Baltimore-based analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. who has a “sell” rating on the stock. “They could force the company to file if they don’t tender enough notes, and then there is a high chance the business is liquidated.”

YRC took on debt when Yellow Corp. acquired Roadway Corp. in 2003 for $1.07 billion and then bought USF Corp. in 2005 for $1.37 billion. The company has $1.6 billion of loans and bonds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chief Executive Officer Bill Zollars said during an earnings conference call on Oct. 30 that YRC wasn’t anticipating growth from the economy for the rest of this year, and at least the first half of 2010.

Concern is growing that the company wouldn’t survive a bankruptcy filing because customers would defect, said Iain Gold, a director in the strategic research department of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which represented about 40,000 YRC employees as of January.

“If you go into bankruptcy, or even just have a financial overhang that the company’s undergone recently, it’s tough to maintain customers when you’ve got competitors that are trying to underbid you on price,” Gold said.

YRC extended the deadline yesterday for the debt exchange offer to Dec. 23 and lowered the minimum participation rate for it to succeed to 80 percent from 95 percent, as the amount of bonds tendered declined. The company already postponed the exchange deadline on Dec. 9 and Dec. 16.

YRC’s $150 million of 8.5 percent notes due in April fell 1.25 cents on the dollar to 59.75 cents yesterday, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The shares declined 7 cents, or 6.8 percent, to 94 cents, after earlier rising as much as 15 percent, on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

The trucker must complete the exchange as part of agreements with its banks, the Teamsters and multi-employer pension funds, according to a Nov. 24 regulatory filing.

“YRC’s lenders have been more than accommodating,” Ross said. “The union workers have taken bigger wage and pension cuts than in the past. The issue is that they’ve had really poor senior management for many years, which made poor strategic decisions and overpaid for the acquisitions of Roadway and USF.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9kPU.MsW.xg

Gold Comes Out On Top For The Last Decade

Posted By on December 24, 2009

Gold Tops Asset Prices

Daily Reckoning……An Interesting Question?

Posted By on December 23, 2009

That America’s precarious financial condition continues to dance on the sharp end of pin is a marvel of modern macroeconomics. Even after deconstructing the whys and wherefores of this marvel, it becomes no less marvelous. Essentially, America borrows and spends as much as it wishes by issuing as many Treasury bills, notes and bonds as it wishes. Somehow, no matter how many commas and zeros the US Treasury uses to quantify its auctions, the central banks of China, Japan, Russia and others continue to raise their paddles…no matter how miserably the dollar behaves.

Can this bizarre multinational financial arrangement continue forever? The obvious answer would be “no.” Nevertheless, this arrangement continues to operate without incident. For more than a decade, the largest central banks and sovereign wealth funds around the globe have been steadily increasing their holdings of US Treasury securities. Sure, some of these buyers – notably the Chinese – gripe publicly about the frailty of the US dollar, and yet, these buyers continue to buy…sort of.

As the chart below illustrates, foreign central banks have been ramping up their holdings of T-bills, as opposed to long-dated securities.

Short Term Yield Increase

In other words, foreign central banks, as a group, have been rolling off their long-dated holdings and parking their dollars in T-bills, despite the fact that T-bills yield almost nothing. Hmmm, why would they do that, we wonder? Are the buyers worried that inflation will kick up in the US? Probably. Are the buyers also worried about committing their capital to the US for a long time? Probably.

Whatever the exact motives that inspire these Treasury buyers to buy fewer long-dated Treasurys, we wonder how motivated they will be to refinance $1.6 trillion of maturing T-bills during the next three months, and $2.5 trillion during the next 12 months (in addition to fresh borrowing!).

“The faith-based, dollar-dependent monetary system is like a loaded pistol in front of a depressed man,” Bill Bonner remarked one year ago. “It is too easy for the US to end its financial troubles, Rueff pointed out, just by printing more dollars. Eventually, he predicted, this ‘exorbitant privilege’ will be ‘suicidal’ for Western economies.”

Hmmm…maybe it’s time to step out of the line of fire.

From The Daily Reckoning………..Not So Tiny Bubbles

Posted By on December 23, 2009

Exactly one month ago, The New York Times ran a front-page headline, “Wave of Debt Payments Facing US Government,” and punctuated the point of the accompanying story with the chart below:

Public Debt Obligations

The following day, we tipped our hat to the Grey Lady and re-produced the chart for the benefit of all Daily Reckoning readers who do not also read The New York Times. We also highlighted some of the disturbing New Math that this chart implied. Specifically, we reported, “The government will have to cough up $1.6 trillion just by the end of March. Ten years from now, the mere cost of servicing the debt is expected to reach $700 billion annually, more than three times the current burden.”

Interest Rates May Be Set To Rise………

Posted By on December 22, 2009

Something to watch closely…….From Art Cashin’s comments from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange……  

Things are beginning to stir in the bond market.  The deflationary shadow seems to be disappearing and rather rapidly.  Early signs of inflationary concerns are beginning to appear.  The action of the bond markets may be causing, or at least posing, problems for the Fed and the recovery.  Here is the take of the very savvy T.J. Marta in his morning comments:

The 2yr yield is higher, as we expected, but the 10yr yield is even higher. The rise in the 10yr is going to be problematic for policymakers as it will force mortgage rates higher, something the economy can ill-afford. The spread between the 30yr FNMA and the average of the 5yr and 10yr Treasury yields has plummeted 16bp in the past week to 157bp, a low since May 27, during a period when the 30yr mortgage rate spiked wider from 4.33% to 5.50% in the course of a month. With the Fed having abandoned its policy of Treasury buying and Congress hell-bent on spending the country into oblivion (we don’t believe in the accounting gimmicks of the recent and pending legislation), either one of the two needs to change course or the economic rebound is in trouble.

If the bond vigilantes press the bet in the ten year, the upward pressure on mortgages could send housing back into a spiral.  Concurrently, a spike in bond yields could bring more strength into the dollar.  Certainly something we need to watch closely.

On This Day In 1932…..America Was Spiraling Into The Depths Of The Depression

Posted By on December 22, 2009

On this day (+2) in 1931, America was spiraling into the depths of the Depression.  Thousands of banks had closed and there was a national panic that more closings might be imminent.  And, large corporations announced huge layoff programs, stunning many who thought they were safe.  Those who had a job were grateful just to be employed. 

Among those were a group of construction workers in New York City.  As they stood amidst the rubble of demolished buildings in midtown Manhattan, they talked of how lucky they were that some rich guy had hired them for a new but risky development.  And, since it was near Christmas, they decided to celebrate the fact that they had a job.

They got a Christmas tree from a guy in a lot on the corner who apparently had discovered that folks with apartments suitable for 18 foot trees were not too free with the green pictures of dead presidents in 1931.  So the workers stood the big tree up in the rubble and decorated it with tin cans and other items in the lot.  A photographer saw it as a perfect symbol of 1931.  It caught on immediately and each Christmas as the project proceeded a new tree was put up.  And even after the project (Rockefeller Center) was completed, management put up a new (and much bigger) tree each year.

From Art Cashin’s Comments

Mutual Fund Cash Levels Heading For A Record Low………….

Posted By on December 22, 2009

Mutual Fund Cash Levels

The S&P 500 is up 65 percent from its 2009 closing low and looks to close out the full year with a gain of greater than 20 percent. But looking at the latest mutual fund inflows, the retail Regular Joe chose the safety of bonds. More than $260 billion flowed into taxable bond funds this year through Nov. 30, but more than 17 billion was taken out of U.S. stock mutual funds, according to Morningstar.

 The reason why the retail investor is crucial to the continuation of the rally is because mutual fund managers are already all-in. Average mutual fund cash levels have already gone from 6 percent following the 2007 crash to a low of 3.8 percent, according to Alan Newman’s ‘Stock Market Crosscurrents’ newsletter. This is near the the all-time low cash level of 3.5 percent recorded in the summer of 2007 right before the crash unfolded.

 
Source: Alan M. Newman’s Stock Market Crosscurrents

The buying power of mutual funds is completely exhausted, according to Newman, whose prescient newsletter has been early over the years in pointing out problems such as the high-leverage in our financial system and the dangers of program trading. “This display of optimism and complacency surpasses anything we have ever seen before,” wrote the analyst, in his latest note.

If the retail investor doesn’t put more cash into mutual funds, then mutual fund managers can’t buy more stocks. But does the retail investor feel good about the outlook for the economy and stocks?

“Although the S&P 500 is 30 percent below the all-time highs, the math is not quite what it appears, since the major index must climb another 41 percent to get back to the highs,” wrote Newman. “Given the index is already up 65 percent from the lows, one would be excused for believing such an event would require a rather complete turn in the fundamentals, such as far lower unemployment stats combined with huge gains in job growth. Neither of these factors appear to be on the horizon.”

Reporting by Jennifer Dwork and Prasanna Subramanian

Forty State Jobless Funds Will Be Broke In Two Years

Posted By on December 22, 2009

By Peter Whoriskey

The Washington Post
Mon., Dec . 21, 2009

The recession’s jobless toll is draining unemployment-compensation funds so fast that according to federal projections, 40 state programs will go broke within two years and need $90 billion in loans to keep issuing the benefit checks.

The shortfalls are putting pressure on governments to either raise taxes or shrink the aid payments.

Debates over the state benefit programs have erupted in South Carolina, Nevada, Kansas, Vermont and Indiana. And the budget gaps are expected to spread and become more acute in the coming year, compelling legislators in many states to reconsider their operations.

Currently, 25 states have run out of unemployment money and have borrowed $24 billion from the federal government to cover the gaps. By 2011, according to Department of Labor estimates, 40 state funds will have been emptied by the jobless tsunami.

“There’s immense pressure, and it’s got to be faced,” said Indiana state Rep. David Niezgodski (D), a sponsor of a bill that addressed the gaps in Indiana’s unemployment program. “Our system was absolutely broke.”

Give-and-take
The Indiana legislation protected the aid checks, Niezgodski said, but it came after a give-and-take this spring in which Gov. Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. (R) said the state had been providing “Rolls-Royce benefits” and several thousand union workers countered by protesting proposed cuts at the state capitol. In January, the legislature is slated to consider a bill to delay the proposed tax increases intended to refill the fund.

In Nevada, Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) and legislators have feuded over the unemployment program, which is $85 million in debt to the federal government, with Gibbons accusing the legislature of “callous disregard” for not setting a tax rate.

And last week, a state task force in Kentucky recommended cutting benefits about 9 percent and imposing a week’s delay in their payment. The average benefit check there is about $309 a week. The task force also proposed raising taxes.

“There were some moments of high anxiety” during the negotiations between industry and labor groups, said Joseph U. Meyer, the state’s acting secretary of education and workforce development. “But in the end, the realistic options became fairly apparent.”

Two choices
State unemployment-compensation funds are separated from general budgets, so when there is a shortfall, only two primary solutions are typically considered — either cut the benefit or raise the payroll tax.

Industry and business groups often lobby against raising the payroll tax on employers, while unions and other worker groups protest benefit cuts.

“We want to make sure Kentucky remains competitive and also maintain an environment of fairness,” Meyer said of the negotiations.

Nationally, the average tax is about 0.6 percent of payroll; the average weekly check is about $300.

Not prepared
The troubles the state programs face can be traced to a failure during the economic boom to properly prepare for a downturn, experts said.

Unemployment benefits are funded by the payroll tax on employers that is collected at a rate that is supposed to keep the funds solvent. Firms that fire lots of people are supposed to pay higher rates. The federal government pays for administrative costs, and in a recession, it pays for the extension of unemployment benefits beyond 26 weeks. But over the years, the drive to minimize state taxes on employers has reduced the funds to unsustainable levels.

“The benefits haven’t grown — that’s not the problem,” said Richard Hobbie, director of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34519544/ns/business-washington_post/print/1/displaymode/1098/

Forbes…..Trillions Of Troubles Ahead, Yes That’s Trillions

Posted By on December 21, 2009

Trillions Of Troubles Ahead

 
Bert Dohmen

Not too long ago, a billion dollars in a governmental budget was a lot of money. Then we got into hundreds of billions. People understood that this was a lot, just because of all the zeros. Now, unfortunately, the number has become small: the world “trillion,” as in $1.2 trillion for health care reform, seems so tiny. But it has 12 zeroes behind it, which is so easy to forget.

If the government stays on the course it’s been on for the past forty years without a radical change, the federal government will soon have a $10 trillion budget.

In other words, the federal budget deficit will be $1.4 trillion. Just to make the size more visible, that’s $1,400 billion.

Our colleague Rob Arnott, who always does terrific research, wrote in his recent report that “at all levels, federal, state, local and GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company–only Japan, Lebanon and Zimbabwe are higher. That’s only the start. Add household debt (highest in the world at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at 317% of GDP, not even counting off-balance-sheet swaps and derivatives) and our total debt is 557% of GDP. Less than three years ago our total indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the first time.”  Add the unfunded portion of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP.

The world has not seen such debt levels in modern history. This debt is not serviceable. Imagine that total debt is 557% of GDP, without considering entitlements. The interest on the debt will consume all the tax revenues of the country in the not-too-distant future. Then there will be no way out but to create more debt in order to finance the old debt.

It assures a period of economic devastation. In a last, desperate attempt, politicians at the federal and local levels will raise taxes to astronomical heights to raise revenues. And that only assures destruction of the economy. Forget the fable of economic recovery. Unless there is a change in Washington by next year’s election, there will be no way to turn back.

More at……http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/18/government-budget-deficit-personal-finance-financial-advisor-network-treasury-debt_print.html

The Second Wave Looks Like A Big One!

Posted By on December 21, 2009

The Second Wave of Mortgage Defaults

By Jim Nelson
Baltimore, Maryland

Our economy is about to relapse into the disease that sent us into the Great Depression: Part Deux. Subprime loans caused the initial illness. Option-ARMs will cause the relapse.

In the first half of the past decade, subprime loans were king. They were cheap and easy to get approved. Along with the subprime boom came subprime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which were equally easy to afford…for a while.

Of course, the “A” and the “R” in ARM meant that the interest rate borrowers pay changes, or resets. The majority of these resets occurred between the summer of 2007 and the summer of 2008.

This period saw a massive amount of mortgage interest rate hikes, which caused millions of foreclosures. Things spiraled down from there, eventually freezing nearly all credit and causing the panic of 2008.

Of course, that’s the 50-cent version of recent history. There were plenty of other financial calamities that went along with this, including the bundling of mortgage-backed securities and risky derivative products.

If you believe the Obama White House and the glass-half-full press corps, you’d think this mess is now behind us. We are, after all, in a recovery…right?

Unfortunately, no one is talking about the second wave of ARM resets and foreclosures…

You see, this second wave will come crashing even harder than the first. It’s made up of a type of mortgage called “Option ARMs.” These give borrowers the option of how much they want to pay during the first five or 10 years of repayment:

1) The full amortized rate, including interest and principal.
2) Interest only, or…
3) A token payment, well below the amount needed to cover the interest on the loan.

This third option causes the mortgage balance to INCREASE instead of decrease. And usually, the borrower can continue to make minimum payments until the mortgage balance increases to 125% of the original amount. That’s when the trouble begins…especially if the interest rate increases at the same time.

This is the exact situation in which many homeowners now find themselves.

Obviously, these option ARMs were supposed to be reserved for customers with better credit than those who took out subprime mortgages. But apparently, they were handed out to almost anyone who wanted them.

According to Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue of T2 Partners, who are experts on this subject, about 80% of option ARMs are negatively amortizing. Meaning these so-called top-tier borrowers are heading further into the hole. Once their rates reset, they could be in serious trouble.

And that could be happening very soon:

 The Second Wave

The chart above shows the two peaks in the mortgage-reset wave. The first peak is comprised of subprime ARM resets. And the second is mostly constructed of option ARM resets. We appear to be in the eye of the storm.

That fact alone shook our nerves when we first discovered it. But it was a different chart in Tilson and Tongue’s most recent presentation that really got us startled… It’s also the reason I’m predicting the dollar spike in 2010.

Instead of resetting as expected after the first five years, many option ARMs are so negatively amortized that they are hitting their automatic reset cap.

That means they are resetting early…like right now.

Option Arm Resets

As you can see from the second chart, the expected reset peak was to occur in 2011. But the real peak is happening now. You can also see that the amount of mortgages resetting is spread over a longer period of time than originally thought, but is peaking much earlier. Unfortunately, it’s not the peaks that matter.

You see, those are just resets. But with unemployment reaching quarter- century highs every month, and the massive number of homeowners about to receive mortgage bills for two to three times what they are used to paying, we find ourselves in an even scarier environment than this time last year.

It takes anywhere between 3-12 months for most homeowners to actually go into foreclosure. Therefore, the wave of Option-ARMs that are now resetting could cause a major wave of foreclosures over the next 6 to 18 months.

The Debt Bomb…We’ve Talked About This Until We’re Blue

Posted By on December 19, 2009

THE DEBT BOMB
by Puru Saxena
Editor, Money Matters
December 18, 2009

BIG PICTURE- “It’s a question of how do you achieve the deleveraging. Do you go through a long period of slow growth, high savings and many legal problems or do you accept higher inflation? It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process” – Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard, Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund

Make no mistake; the developed world is drowning in debt and as outlined above, there are only two viable options – a global economic depression or very high inflation. It is our contention that the policymakers have chosen the latter option and over the following years, we will experience the trauma of severe inflation.

Look. The American government is staring at total obligations of US$115 trillion, America’s debt to GDP ratio is off the charts and the American public is also up to its eyeballs in debt. Under this scenario, you can bet your bottom dollar that the American establishment will try to reduce this debt overhang through a process known as monetary inflation. If you have any doubt whatsoever, take a look at Figure 1 which captures the incredible expansion in America’s monetary base. As you can see, over the past two years, the monetary base in America has expanded from US$827 billion to an astonishing US$1.93 trillion! Up until now, this surge in the monetary base has not permeated through the broad economy but once the money velocity picks up, the money supply will zoom and the end result will be surging price inflation.  

Figure 1: Explosion in America’s monetary base
 

Monetary Base

Source: Federal Reserve
It is notable that America is not alone in pursuing inflationary policies; most nations all over the world are printing money and debasing their currencies. In this era of globalisation, no country wants a strong currency and everyone is engaged in competitive currency devaluations. Given this reality, we firmly believe that this money and debt creation will cause an inflationary holocaust over the coming years.

In fact, those who erroneously believe that deflation is unavoidable should review Figure 2 which highlights the mind-boggling expansion in the balance sheets of various central banks. As you can see, America alone is not the only nation guilty of printing money; the Europeans have also jumped on this train to Inflationville.

Figure 2: Central bank balance sheet expansion (15 Sept 2008 – 1 July 2009)

 Central Bank Expansion

Source: Various central banks

Now, we are aware that many prominent commentators are still calling for deflation and their argument is based on the strength in American Treasuries. “After all, how can inflation be a problem when bond yields are so low?” seems to be their reasoning. Well, these deflationists seem to be missing the point because the American Treasury market is no longer a free market and we would argue that the Federal Reserve’s intervention is largely responsible for keeping bond yields artificially low. It is noteworthy that over the past several months, the Federal Reserve has purchased most of the newly issued American Treasuries. It goes without saying that the American central bank is engaged in this desperate act in order to keep interest-rates low. However, it is buying these Treasuries by creating money out of thin air. This is inflationary.
If our assessment is correct, somewhere down the road, the Federal Reserve will lose its battle and long-dated American Treasuries will plummet in value. As more and more bond investors wake up to the looming inflationary menace, they will start demanding a higher rate of return on their capital. When that happens, the dyke will break and the Federal Reserve will become irrelevant.

We have no doubt in our minds that over the next decade, various central banks will intensify their money-printing efforts and Mr. Bernanke will lead by example. After all, America has run out of choices and if the Federal Reserve does not inflate away this mountain of debt, the biggest sovereign default in history is guaranteed. Now, given the ability of the Federal Reserve to create confetti money, we are convinced that it will opt for the inflation tonic. Remember, inflation dilutes the purchasing power of each unit of money and it will make America’s debt more manageable. Of course, this inflationary agenda is not a secret and this is why many creditor nations with huge reserves are beginning to diversify out of the American currency.

It is our observation that throughout history, monetary inflation has caused asset prices to rise and this time should be no different. In the past, when inflationary expectations spiralled out of control, hard assets were the prime beneficiaries and this trend is likely to remain intact in this inflationary episode. If our assessment is correct, over the coming years, stocks, precious metals, commodities and real-estate will appreciate in value versus paper currencies. Furthermore, on a relative basis, we expect precious metals and commodities to outperform all other asset-classes. Conversely, we anticipate that cash and fixed income instruments will probably turn out to be the worst assets to own over the next decade.

Bearing in mind the looming inflationary nightmare, we urge you to protect your purchasing power by allocating capital to precious metals and commodities related businesses. Finally, we suggest that you consider allocating a portion of your capital to the fast growing economies in Asia (China, India and Vietnam).

For our part, we have invested our clients’ capital in world-class businesses in our preferred themes and we expect our holdings to benefit during this low-growth, high-inflation environment.

© 2009 Puru Saxena
Editorial Archive

Puru Saxena publishes Money Matters, a monthly economic report, which highlights extraordinary investment opportunities in all major markets.  In addition to the monthly report, subscribers also receive “Weekly Updates” covering the recent market action. Money Matters is available by subscription from www.purusaxena.com. 

Puru Saxena
Website – www.purusaxena.com

Puru Saxena is the founder of Puru Saxena Wealth Management, his Hong Kong based firm which manages investment portfolios for individuals and corporate clients.  He is a highly showcased investment manager and a regular guest on CNN, BBC World, CNBC, Bloomberg, NDTV and various radio programs.

Comstock Partners On Why We Remain Bearish

Posted By on December 18, 2009

Comstock Partners, Inc.Why We Remain Bearish

December 17, 2009

The stock market rally has now reached a point where it is forecasting a V-shaped recovery that is not likely to happen. The recent catalyst for all of this optimism is a bullish interpretation of current economic activity, some apparent stabilization in the housing market and various companies beating earnings estimates.  Also not to be overlooked is the perceived strength of the Chinese economy that is affecting global growth and the upward move in some basic commodities.  We think that all of these points are being exaggerated while the fear of missing the train leaving the station is resulting in a speculative surge that is likely to leave the majority disappointed.

The key factor to consider is that the so-called ‘great recession’ was caused by a credit crisis following an artificial boom and therefore bears more resemblance to the great depression following 1929 or Japan after 1989 than it does to the series of recessions experienced in the post World War ll period.  After the collapse of the dot-com boom in 2000-to-2002 the Fed held interest rates at historically low levels for an extended period of time, and with the help of lax mortgage standards, complex securitized financial instruments and irresponsible ratings agencies, fostered a climate that resulted in a massive housing boom.  Households were able to cash out their vastly increased home values through refinancing and home equity loans that allowed them to spend freely and reduce their savings even though wage growth was exceedingly sluggish.  The consumer boom also led to the global buildup of capacity to satisfy the demand that was artificially induced by the free flow of credit that was mistaken for an abundance of liquidity by most economists and strategists.

Now the piper must be paid.  Despite the deep recession into early Summer, the consumer is still being forced to adjust to a far lower level of spending.  When that level is eventually reached the economy can again grow in a robust manner, but we are not near that point now.  The massive fiscal and monetary stimulation put into effect over the last nine months has mitigated the credit crisis and prevented a global collapse, but has not avoided the need for the economy to readjust to a new set of circumstances.  We are still faced with historically high debt levels, a low household savings rate and a subdued housing industry.  Reducing debt and getting the savings rate up will take an extended period of time.  Furthermore, as a result of reduced consumer spending there is also an excess of capacity that will impede capital expenditures as well.  And let’s not forget that foreign nations that have become dependent on the U.S. consumer for growth (read China) will have to find another way.

To briefly illustrate the nature of the adjustments ahead, consider the following.  From 1955 to 1985 consumer spending accounted for between 61% and 64% of GDP.  On September 30, this percentage had risen to 71%, an amount that is unsustainable given the artificiality of the boom that caused it.  For the percentage to drop to a more traditional 65% of GDP, spending would have to decline by 7.8%. While this will not happen all at once, it will be a drag on consumer spending for some time to come.

Similar reasoning is applicable to household debt and savings.  Household debt has averaged 57% of GDP over the last 55 years and was still at 64% as late as 1995.  It has since soared to 98.6% (only slightly under its peak) giving a big boost to spending.  Even if debt remains at a high level the absence of any further increase takes away a significant past source of growth. 

The household savings rate mostly stayed in a range of between 7% and 11% of consumer disposable income in the decades prior to 1992, and steadily declined to around zero by 2008 before rising to a current 4.4% as consumers have started the process of reining in spending..  In the absence of rising home values and the virtual disappearance of mortgage equity withdrawals that, at its peak, accounted for an annualized 12% of consumer spending, the savings rate could easily climb back to more traditional 9%.  This would be yet another drag on spending.

In our view the economic recovery is on life support and is unsustainable.  The progress seen to date is almost entirely dependent on temporary government programs that are due to be wound down.  As that occurs the economy will be unable to expand on its own.    Highly unfavorable conditions in three key areas—housing, commercial real estate and consumer spending—make it highly likely that economic growth will be extremely tepid or fall into another recession.

About 25% of all homes with mortgages are underwater with about half of these 20% under and more.  Experience indicates that a large number of these mortgages will end up defaulting if they haven’t already done so.  Even now 14% of all homes with mortgages are in default or foreclosure.  Home prices have climbed slightly over the past few months only as a result of the first-time homebuyers’ tax credit and the fact that foreclosures have been temporarily backlogged as mortgage servicers have been determining who is eligible for modifications.  When this process is soon completed those not qualifying will be thrown into foreclosure.  In addition we are also facing another round of adjustable-rate mortgage resets that will result in even more defaults and foreclosures in the period ahead.  When this happens home prices will resume their decline, putting even more mortgages under water.  Let’s not forget that increasing unemployment and lack of new hiring will result in more households that are unable to keep up their payments.

Commercial real estate (CRE) is another area that will subject financial institutions and the economy to further risk.  CRE prices are already down 33% in 2009 and 45% from the peak with an estimated 55%-to-65% at prices lower than the amount of their mortgages.  About $1.5 trillion of CRE mortgages mature over the next few years, and a substantial number of them will not qualify for refinancing unless already weakened financial intuitions take a big hit.  A large number of the mortgage holders are small-to-medium sized community banks.  This is another reason why these banks are so reluctant to make new loans to small business.

The third leg of the shaky economic stool is the subdued outlook for consumer spending.  As we pointed out above, consumers are in the process of paring down debt and increasing their savings rate, a process that has barely started.  The household debt/GDP ratio is still close to100% compared to a 57-year median of 57%.  While the household savings rate has increased to 4.4% from near zero, it generally averaged between 8% and 9% in the decades prior to 1992.  While an increased savings rate benefits the economy in the long-term it tends to dampen consumer spending while the process is underway.  Also hampering consumer spending is the fact that wages are down 5% from a year ago, unemployment is still rising, new hiring is still declining, net worth has plunged and consumer credit is tight.  Consumer credit outstanding has dropped 4.3% over the past year, the most in at least 44 years.  Household net worth has declined 12% year-over-year, the most in 57 years.

Another ominous development is the recent emergence of sovereign debt problems.  The revelation of Dubai World’s inability to pay its debts on time resulted in a one-day market drop that was soon easily dismissed as one-off event.  After the initial blithe dismissal of the emergence of subprime mortgage problems, the world should have learned that such events never occur in a vacuum.  After a world-wide debt binge based on the theory that assets can only rise in value, an unexpected severe decline in asset values has left debtors with too little cash flow to service their debts.  It was therefore naïve to think that Dubai would be the only nation impacted, and, sure enough, the other shoes have started to fall.  Fitch lowered their rating on Greece to BBB and S&P followed with a change in Spain’s outlook to negative on its current AA+ rating.  The firm had already downgraded Portuguese bonds a few days earlier.  The distress in Greece, Portugal and Spain place the ECB in a tough position.  The central bank has to do what is best for all 16 member nations as a whole, and when they tighten monetary policy the stresses on the weak members gets even worse.  We would not be surprised to see other nations in debt trouble as well, both in the ECB and any where else on the globe

We believe that U.S. government and private debt levels will diverge over the next four or five years as the authorities attempt to use government debt to replace the private debt that is almost certain to decline substantially.  U.S. total debt is presently just under $55 trillion, comprised of public (government) debt of about $15 trillion and private debt (U.S. corporations and individuals) of about $40 trillion.  The similarities to Japan at its 1989 economic and market peak leads us to believe that we are close to the same road map that Japan was on starting at that time and continuing until today.  With that said, we expect current U.S. government debt of $15 trillion to double to about $30 trillion and private debt to drop in half to about $20 trillion over the next 4-to-5 years.

The similarities between Japan’s deleveraging since 1989 and the U.S. presently are eerie.  Japan’s total debt to GDP increased from 270% when their secular bear market started to just about 350% eight years later (1998) before declining to 110% presently.  The U.S. increased their total debt-to-GDP from 275% of GDP when our secular bear market started in 2000 to 375% presently (10 years later), and we suspect a total debt decline similar to Japan’s even though the Japanese government debt tripled during their deleveraging.  The government debt relative to GDP was about 50% in both the U.S. and Japan when the secular bear market started.  We also suspect that our government debt will grow substantially just like it did in Japan as the private debt collapses.  The private debt in Japan decreased substantially from the peak seven years after the secular bear market started (dropping from 270% of GDP to 110% presently).  If the U.S. were to follow Japan’s deflationary road map, we would expect our government debt to increase from about $7 trillion (net government debt not including the debt used to fund Social Security) to about $21 trillion and the private debt to decrease from about $39 trillion to around $20 trillion.  Also, the Japanese stock market doubled during the three years preceding their secular bear market in 1987, 1988, and 1989 while the U.S. market also doubled during the three years preceding the beginning of our secular bear market in 1997, 1998, and 1999.

All in all, the recession we have experienced is not a typical post-war decline, but the end of an era, and getting the economy back on its long-term growth trajectory will take an extended period of time.  For the stock market this means a reduced level of corporate earnings and subdued price-to-earnings ratios.  In this light we think that the big earnings increases forecast for 2010 and beyond are far too high.  It is likely the recent rally has gone about as far as it can go without some proof that the economy can recover at a strong pace, and we think that this proof is not likely to come anytime soon.

 
© 2000 Gabelli & Company, Inc. All rights reservered. Member, NASD and SIPC.
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Chinese Central Banker Speaks His Mind On The Dollar

Posted By on December 17, 2009

Chinese Central Banker Zhu Says Dollar Set to Weaken 
By Bloomberg News

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Chinese central banker Zhu Min said that the dollar is set to weaken further and it will become more difficult for nations to buy U.S. Treasuries.

“When the U.S. has to fund its deficit through the combination of issuing more Treasuries and printing more dollars, it is inevitable that the dollar will continue to weaken,” Deputy Governor Zhu said at a forum in Beijing today.

China, the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries with $798.9 billion of the securities, expressed concern this year at the safety of its dollar assets and central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan called for moves toward an alternative global currency. Zhu’s comments, which he said were a personal view, focused on the twin U.S. deficits, fiscal and current account.

The U.S. can’t expect other nations to increase purchases of Treasuries to fund its entire fiscal shortfall, said Zhu, a former vice president of Bank of China Ltd. Efforts by the U.S. to cut its current-account deficit mean other nations accumulate fewer dollars through trade, leaving them with less money to buy Treasuries, he added.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency against those of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners, has declined 4.4 percent this year. The currency climbed today to the highest level in three months against the euro after Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greece’s debt rating yesterday.

Pimco’s Bill Gross Takes A Cautious Investment Stand

Posted By on December 17, 2009

Pimco’s Gross Boosts Cash to Most Since Lehman Failed

By Wes Goodman and Garfield Reynolds

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., cut holdings of government debt and boosted cash to the most since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in September 2008.

Gross increased cash in the $199.4 billion Total Return Fund’s to 7 percent in November from negative 7 percent in October, according to Pimco’s Web site. The fund can have a so- called negative position by using derivatives, futures or by shorting.

The fund reduced government-related debt to 51 percent of assets from a five-year high of 63 percent in October. Mortgages fell to 12 percent, the lowest since Pimco’s figures started in 2000, from 16 percent.

Under what Newport Beach, California-based Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors should be prepared for lower-than- average historical returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy.

Federal Reserve officials on Dec. 16 said the economy is strengthening and left the target rate for overnight loans between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.

The FOMC met after a week of reports suggesting economic growth picked up in the fourth quarter. Retail sales climbed 1.3 percent in November, twice as much as anticipated in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Inventories rose in October for the first time since August 2008, and exports in the same month increased to the highest levels in 11 months.

Gross said last month that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates until nominal gross domestic product increases 4 percent to 5 percent for another 12 months.

GDP grew at a 2.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said on Nov. 24. While the economy has returned to growth after the deepest recession since the 1930s, most economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the unemployment rate will exceed 10 percent through June. Consumer spending is still below its level of two years ago.

The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent in November from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent the previous month, the Labor Department said on Dec. 4. The U.S. lost 11,000 jobs, compared with 125,000 jobs in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News.

Mark Porterfield, a Pimco spokesman, has said the company doesn’t comment on fund holdings.

Pimco’s government-related debt category can include conventional and inflation-linked Treasuries, agency debt, interest-rate derivatives and bank debt backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., according to Pimco’s Web site.

www.bloomberg.com

New Growth In Nuclear Capacity Around The World

Posted By on December 16, 2009

From…..The Daily Reckoning

China’s nuclear capacity is now less than 9,000 megawatts, but the country has more than a dozen more plants either under construction or in the planning stages. According to figures from the brokerage CLSA, the capacity could grow fivefold by 2015. The official target is 40,000 megawatts by 2020.

Such an ambitious program raises the question of how to fuel all of the new plants that China wants to bring online in the next decade. Where will all of the uranium come from to handle this new demand?

China is not alone in its nuclear ambitions. Earlier this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) projected that global nuclear capacity would grow from about 370,000 megawatts (14 percent of world energy consumption) now to as much as 540,000 megawatts by 2020 and 810,000 megawatts by 2030. In dollar terms, capital expenditure on nuclear plants could total more than $500 billion over the next 20 years.

Roughly 40,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity are now being built on four continents, with China accounting for a quarter of that total, well ahead of #2 Russia and #3 South Korea. The chart below shows that China will be second only to the US in terms of future capacity when projects at all phases are completed.

Global Nuclear Capacity

China has uranium reserves within its borders and it is aggressively lining up supplies in Central Asia, Africa and Australia to make up any shortfall. But this shortfall is large and growing. According to a recent Reuters story, China can supply only a third of the 10,000 metric tons of uranium annually required to meet its 2020 nuclear capacity target.

The World Nuclear Association says the world’s measured uranium resources are sufficient to last 80 years at current usage rates, with the largest untapped deposits found in Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Canada. But just looking at China makes it clear that usage rates are soon to see a sizable increase. Nevertheless, worldwide uranium production is unlikely to increase until uranium prices increase.

Uranium prices shot up to more than $135 per pound in 2007, after the first new nuclear power projects began emerging. But uranium subsequently slumped back down to $40 a pound, as above-ground stockpiles flooded into the market.

Uranium Price

Looking forward, however, rising demand for nuclear power seems likely to produce rising prices for uranium. In fact, some analysts expect the uranium price to reach $80 a pound by 2011.

Rameo Dator, The Daily Reckoning

Obama’s 47 Percent Approval Lowest Of Any President At This Point

Posted By on December 8, 2009

Obama’s 47% Approval Lowest On Record For This Point

Bill Sammon 

     – December 08, 2009

President Obama’s job approval rating has fallen to 47 percent in the latest Gallup poll, the lowest ever recorded for any president at this point in his term. 

President Obama’s job approval rating has fallen to 47 percent in the latest Gallup poll, the lowest ever recorded for any president at this point in his term.

Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford and even Richard Nixon all had higher approval ratings 10-and-a-half months into their presidencies. Obama’s immediate predecessor, President George W. Bush, had an approval rating of 86 percent, or 39 points higher than Obama at this stage. Bush’s support came shortly after he launched the war in Afghanistan in response to the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said he doesn’t “put a lot of stock” in the survey by Gallup, which has conducted presidential approval polls since 1938, longer than any other organization.

“If I was a heart patient and Gallup was my EKG, I’d visit my doctor,” Gibbs said in response to questions from Fox. “I’m sure a six-year-old with a Crayon could do something not unlike that. I don’t put a lot of stake in, never have, in the EKG that is daily Gallup trend. I don’t pay a lot of attention to the meaninglessness of it.”

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport responded: “Gibbs said that if Gallup were his EKG, he would visit his doctor. Well, I think the doctor might ask him what’s going on in his life that would cause his EKG to be fluctuating so much. There is, in fact, a lot going on at the moment — the health care bill, the jobs summit, the Copenhagen climate conference and Afghanistan.”

The new low comes as Obama struggles to overhaul the nation’s health care system and escalates America’s involvement in the Afghanistan war. He is also presiding over a deep and prolonged recession, with unemployment at 10 percent.

“There’s no doubt Obama’s 47 percent is mainly a result of the continuing bad economy,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “But there is also a growing concern about government spending and debt, and a sense that Obama is trying to do too much, too soon.”

He added: “President Obama has reason to be concerned about his ratings. Even in tough times, presidents have usually been able to stay above the critical 50 percent mark in the first year, when the public is most inclined to give the new incumbent the benefit of the doubt.”

Obama officials have not always shown disdain for Gallup. During last year’s presidential campaign, Obama adviser David Plouffe, trumpeted “the latest Gallup poll” to reporters because it showed that 53 percent of Americans did not find Obama Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, “trustworthy.”

When Gallup began taking presidential approval polls 71 years ago, Franklin Roosevelt had been president for more than five years. During his remaining time in office, his job approval rating never fell below 48 percent.

The next 11 presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, all had higher job approval ratings than Obama at this stage of their tenure. Their ratings were:

— George W. Bush, 86 percent
— Bill Clinton, 52 percent
— George H.W. Bush, 71 percent
— Ronald Reagan, 49 percent
— Jimmy Carter, 57 percent
— Gerald Ford, 52 percent
— Richard Nixon, 59 percent
— Lyndon Johnson, 74 percent
— John Kennedy, 77 percent
— Dwight Eisenhower, 69 percent
— Harry Truman, 49 percent

More at…..http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/08/obamas-percent-approval-lowest-president-point/

U. S. Federal Debt Keeps On Truck’in

Posted By on December 7, 2009

 

U S Federal Debt

www.ingerletter.com

Consumer Crdit Is Still Looking Tough

Posted By on December 7, 2009

From The Inger Letter        www.ingerletter.com

Today’s latest report showed continued year-over-year declines for Consumer Credit; which is now an all-time one-year collapse which bears watching. I also believe that despite the protestations about credit not being available; consumer and business folks alike (at least those with basic smarts) aren’t inclined to borrow at this time, and thus neither the demand nor the credit availability are terribly volatile. It means we are still in a sobering-up period that followed the forecast ‘epic debacle’ of 2007 and beyond, and it means that you don’t go through that kind of excess credit of course, without some considerable period of time expended to redress the balances.

Consumer Credit

Japan Releases Stimulus Package As Recovery Weakens

Posted By on December 7, 2009

Japan Releases Stimulus Package as Recovery Weakens

By Keiko Ujikane and Toru Fujioka

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — The Japanese government unveiled a 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) economic stimulus package amid signs the recovery and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s popularity are waning.

Hatoyama’s first stimulus plan includes 3.5 trillion yen to help regions, 600 billion yen for employment and 800 billion yen on environmental initiatives, the Cabinet said today in a statement in Tokyo. The measures had been delayed because of haggling within the coalition government.

The Democratic Party of Japan, which took office in September pledging to support households battered by two decades of economic stagnation, is grappling with a slide in prices and a surging yen. The government will say third-quarter economic growth was slower than initially reported in revised figures tomorrow, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“It’s a necessary step,” said Martin Schulz, senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo. “Without another stimulus package, it’s very likely that the economy will fall back into recession. The government simply can’t risk this right now.”

The yen has weakened since climbing to a 14-year high of 84.83 against the dollar on Nov. 27. The Japanese currency traded at 89.07 at 11:41 a.m. in Tokyo from 88.99 before the announcement. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.5 percent.

“Risk factors include a deterioration in employment conditions, sluggish demand because of deflationary pressure, a rise in long-term interest rates and movements in the currency markets,” the statement said.

“Excessive and disorderly movements in foreign-exchange rates can inflict considerable adverse impact on the economic recovery and the government will watch movements sternly.”

Japanese policy makers are adding stimulus measures just their counterparts around the world consider how to withdraw them as the global economy recovers.

The Bank of Japan released a 10 trillion yen credit program last week, satisfying government calls for it to do more to fight declining prices. Under the program, the central bank will offer three-month loans to commercial banks at 0.1 percent interest. In a meeting with central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa last week, Hatoyama applauded the move and refrained from pushing for further monetary easing.

Mor at …….  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYX8OEq28vtA&pos=1

Bernanke Sees ‘Formidable Headwinds’ for U.S. Economy

Posted By on December 7, 2009

Bernanke Sees ‘Formidable Headwinds’ for U.S. Economy

By Craig Torres and Shobhana Chandra

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. economy faces “formidable headwinds,” including a weak labor market and tight credit that are likely to produce a “moderate” pace of expansion.

“The economy confronts some formidable headwinds that seem likely to keep the pace of expansion moderate,” Bernanke, 55, said today in a speech to the Economic Club of Washington. He said inflation remains “subdued” and might even move lower.

Treasuries advanced as traders pared bets the central bank will increase interest rates before August. Bernanke, in response to a question after his speech, repeated the Fed’s statement that rates are likely to remain low for an “extended period.”

The yield on the benchmark two-year Treasury note fell seven basis points to 0.76 percent at 3:35 p.m. in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.2 percent to 1,103.92 after rising as much as 0.4 percent.

“Bernanke suspects we will grow below normal recovery standards, and that pace could be around awhile,” said Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Banks Inc. in Atlanta. “Fed policy may stay where it is, essentially zero, for some time. There are serious risks out there.”

Payrolls have declined by more than 7.2 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007. Employers cut the fewest jobs in November in 23 months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, a Labor Department report showed last week. Payrolls declined by 11,000, and the jobless rate fell to 10 percent in November from 10.2 percent the previous month.

In response to a question from the audience about the direction of interest rates, Bernanke said: “Right now we are still looking at the extended period given that conditions remain low rates of utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable long-term inflation expectations.”

“Obviously there has been some signs of strength recently, we will want to factor that in as we talk about this next week.”

U.S. central bankers meet for their final two-day meeting of the year on Dec. 15-16. At their last meeting in November, policy makers repeated their pledge to keep interest rates low for an “extended period.”

The consumer price index, minus food and energy, rose at a 1.7 percent annual pace in October, up from 1.5 percent the previous month. The core inflation rate rose at a 1.4 percent pace in August, the lowest rate since February 2004.

“Despite the general improvement in financial conditions, credit remains tight for many borrowers,” and the job market “remains weak,” Bernanke said in his prepared remarks.

The Fed chairman said the U.S. central bank has the tools and commitment to keep price increases in check, and that inflation could subside further.

“Elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here,” Bernanke said. “The Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so.”

The Fed chairman credited the U.S. central bank with pulling the economy “back from the brink,” and suggested that growth is unlikely to be strong enough to lower unemployment at a rapid pace. The speech was his first since his appearance at a Senate Banking Committee hearing last week on his nomination to a second term.

“We still have some way to go before we can be assured that the recovery will be self-sustaining,” the Fed Chairman said. “My best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year — sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate, but at a pace slower than we would like.”

More at………http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPFselTdR66I&pos=2

Why Treasury Needs A Plan B For Mortgages

Posted By on December 6, 2009

Treasury Needs Plan B For Mortgages

From The Yew York Times
Published: December 5, 2009

AFTER months of playing pretend, the Treasury Department conceded last week that the Home Affordable Modification Program, its plan to aid troubled homeowners by changing the terms of their mortgages, was a dud. The 10-month-old program is going nowhere, the Treasury said, because big institutions charged with implementing it are dragging their feet.

After the government spent hundreds of billions of dollars bailing out banks, the Obama administration rolled out the $75 billion loan modification plan to show its support for beleaguered homeowners. But if the proof of the pudding is in the eating, homeowners are going hungry.

A stalled loan modification plan might not be worrisome if the foreclosure crisis were abating. Yet at the end of September, a record 14.4 percent of borrowers were either in foreclosure or delinquent on their mortgages, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.

The Treasury program has decided to tackle the delinquent mortgage problem by reducing the interest rate on eligible borrowers’ loans to a level that makes monthly payments affordable. But how it calculates affordability is one of the program’s major flaws — at least that’s the view of Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group and head of mortgage strategy at the firm.

Her research shows, for instance, that 70 percent of modifications involving only interest rate cuts, rather than reductions in the principal borrowers owe, have failed after 12 months. The Treasury program is likely to have similar outcomes.

According to government investigators, the average monthly mortgage payment for a borrower under early plan modifications fell by 34 percent. Assessing for possible success under these terms, Ms. Goodman analyzed past redefault rates on modifications that cut payments by 34 percent. She found that 65 percent of borrowers fell back into delinquency.

The terms of loan modifications also make them especially failure-prone because the government calculates “affordability” (how much mortgage debt a borrower can actually manage) in a highly unusual way — raising serious questions for the housing market over all and for the program’s effectiveness for borrowers.

For example, in devising what it considers an affordable mortgage payment, the program doesn’t account for all of a borrower’s debts — the first mortgage, second lien, credit card debt and automobile payments. Instead, it calculates affordability using only the borrower’s first mortgage payment, insurance and property taxes.

As a result, what may look like an affordable mortgage payment under the Treasury plan quickly becomes onerous when other debt is added. While the government may ignore a borrower’s second lien and revolving credit obligations, you can be sure the creditors that extended those loans will not. Redefaults seem a likely result.

Another flaw in the program, Ms. Goodman said, is its failure to consider how much equity, or negative equity for that matter, the borrower has on a property. She said that while many analysts contend that unemployment is the major predictor of mortgage defaults, her research shows that negative equity, when a borrower owes more on the home than it is worth, is actually the driving force.

Ms. Goodman recently compared the experiences of prime mortgage borrowers living in areas with an 8 percent unemployment rate. Those with at least 20 percent equity in their properties were falling two payments behind for the first time at a rate of only 0.22 percent a month. But the same 60-day delinquency rate for those who owed at least 120 percent of the value of their homes was 1.46 percent a month.

“We have kicked the problem down the road through modifications that don’t work,” Ms. Goodman said in an interview last week. “You have to address the second liens and ultimately have some type of principal write-down program so borrowers can re-equify.”

Unfortunately, there is a $442 billion reasons that wiping out second liens is not high on the government’s agenda: that is the amount of second mortgages and home equity lines of credit on the balance sheets of Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.

These banks — the very same companies the Treasury is urging to modify loans that they service — have zero interest in writing down second liens they hold because it would mean further damage to their balance sheets.

The result? Yet another conflict of interest enriching financial companies while impoverishing investors and consumers.

AN interesting data point: when banks do own all the mortgages on a property they seem to see the merit in principal reduction modifications. Studying second-quarter government data, the most recent available, Ms. Goodman found that when banks owned the loans, 30.5 percent of modifications reduced principal balances.  When they service someone else’s loan or hold a second lien on the property, they rarely allow principal reductions.

Of course, cries of moral hazard will erupt if borrowers get large cuts in their principal balances. Rightly so. Why should those who took on too much debt to buy too much house get rescued when those who were prudent go unrewarded?

Moe at  ….. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/business/economy/06gret.html?ref=business

What A Dummy……Really, It Is A Dummy

Posted By on December 6, 2009

What A Dummy
 I truly out did myself this year with my Christmas decorations.  The bad news is I had to take him down after just 2 days.   There were more people coming up to my house screaming than ever before.  Aflac tried to sell me accident insurance…….then the cops advised me that it would cause traffic accidents as they almost had near miss wreckes as people drove by. Next thing you know, a 55 year old lady grabbed the 75 pound ladder almost killed herself putting it against my house and didn’t realize it was a dummy until she climbed to the top (she was not happy). The Fire Dept had to come and get her down, then they sent me the bill.  By the way, she was one of many people who attempted to do that. I finally had to tie down the latter, that only made things worse.  Next the Police had to send over someone to direct traffic.  I got the bill for that one too.  By then my yard couldn’t take it anymore.  It is now a total wipeout with tire tracks eveywhere. I have since removed the Dummy,  just have plain old Chritmas lights up now.  But it was fun while it lasted.  Thanks for the memories Chevy Chase! 
 
Joke Of The Day
 
 
 

 

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