Troubled California Begins $14 Billion Bond Sale….For Some, Hope Springs Eternal!

| November 15, 2010

The rate will tell the story. If the rate is reasonable then it is illogical. If it is illogical then QE  (Quantitative Easing) has started to bail out states.             Jim Sinclair This two-part sale of so-called revenue anticipation notes (Rans) allows California to bridge the gap to its tax season in the spring…… Hopefully!   Notice […]

European Central Bank Heading Down A Dark Road

| November 15, 2010

Europe Stumbles Blindly Towards Its 1931 Moment By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard  Nov 15, 2010 Unless the ECB takes fast and dramatic action, it risks destroying the currency it is paid to manage, and allowing a political catastrophe to unfold in Europe. If mishandled, Ireland could all too easily become a sovereign version of Credit Anstalt – […]

The Resilient Household

| November 14, 2010

Comments From John Mauldin’s Latest “Thoughts From The Frontline”

| November 13, 2010

John Mauldin says…….”If the Bush tax cuts are not extended, in my opinion it is almost a lock that we go into recession next year, unemployment goes to 12%, and underemployment gets even worse”. The only real way to pay for all these benefits will ultimately be a value-added tax, or VAT.     A VAT looks […]

Swaps Backfire, Here Is The Front Runner To Another Gigantic OTC Derivative Credit Default Swaps Wipe Out, The Only Question Is How Long Before It Gets Out Of Hand

| November 13, 2010

This is peanuts compared to what the OTC derivative credit default swaps are going to cost. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, U.S. cities saw their general fund revenue fall the most since at least 1986 in the budget year that ended June 30, according to the National League of Cities.   States now face […]

California’s Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency

| November 13, 2010

It’s the rainy season in California…..Schwarzenegger Declares Emergency, Calls Special Budget Session November 12, 2010 By Michael B. Marois Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, citing a $25.4 billion budget gap over the next 19 months, declared a fiscal emergency and called lawmakers to a special session next month to begin dealing with […]

Banks Get One-Year Reprieve On Tougher Standards As “G-20” Members Kick The Can Down The Road

| November 12, 2010

This is called kicking the can down the road!   “You can tell from the FSB statements that there’s been a huge amount of controversy,” said Barbara Matthews,  managing director of BCM International Regulatory Analytics LLC in Washington. “Some of these issues have been on the international agenda for decades, and still there’s no end in sight […]

Almost 3 Million Americans Are Set To Lose Federal Benefits

| November 12, 2010

Three federally funded unemployment programs are set to end soon! The programs are the additional compensation pay program, the emergency pay program, and the extended benefits program. Unless lawmakers intervene with another emergency package, the federal benefits will begin to expire starting Nov. 30 through Dec. 11.

U.S. Postal Service Loses $8.5 Billion in 2010

| November 12, 2010

The trouble continues at the U.S. Postal Service.  It lost a record $8.5 billion, and said almost two thirds of the deficit, or $5.5 billion, covered health-benefit costs for future retirees.  Hey, here’s a novel idea (not)…. let’s raise the cost of postage stamps every year, that way the postal workers can keep their retirement benefits.  The U.S. […]

No Sunshine For California’s State Budget

| November 10, 2010

This is unbelievable….beyond belief……..California’s deficit over the next year and half has gone vertical soaring to $25.4 billion. California faces a far-larger budget shortfall than state officials were projecting only weeks ago. The deficit over the next year and half has soared to $25.4 billion, the state’s chief budget analyst said on Wednesday. The startling figure […]

New U.S. Debt Proposal Would Eliminate The Mortgage Interest Deduction And Raise The Gas Tax Amoung Other Things!

| November 10, 2010

A presidential commission’s leaders proposed a $3.8 trillion deficit-cutting plan that would trim Social Security and Medicare, reduce income-tax rates and eliminate tax breaks including the mortgage-interest deduction. November 10, 2010 Bloomberg Wiping out all tax breaks, including the home mortgage deduction, while lowering tax rates would save $100 billion a year according to Erskine Bowles, co-chairman […]

Food Price Fears May Be Near…..U.S. Warns On Crop Short Falls

| November 10, 2010

A major point in the long weather cycle occurs in 2011…….Demand is soaring and crop yields are shrinking. This alone will send agricultural prices higher.  Now add aggressive currency devaluation into the mix and we can better understand the direction of capital flows.  The phrase budget pain will soon redefine the grocery checkout experience. From the FT:  (FT) — The spectre […]

U.S. Commander: U.S. Will Be Fighting In Afghanistan In 2014

| November 9, 2010

These endless wars will bankrupt America eventully! Tuesday, November 09, 2010 By Edwin Mora (CNSNews.com) – U.S. Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, the commander of the NATO training mission in Afghanistan, indicated today that U.S. forces will still be fighting in Afghanistan in 2014, with current plans aiming to have “Afghan security forces in the lead” and U.S. […]

Nearly All State Unemployment Funds Are In Deep Deficits!

| November 9, 2010

Deficits such as these are not limited to California. Illinois, Wisconsin, Texas, New York, New Jersey, and/or nearly ever State in the Union have drained their unemployment insurance funds and must start paying the federal government interest on the borrowed money in 2011. The markets already know that there’s no way the States will  have […]

FDIC Approves Temporary Unlimited Deposit Insurance Coverage For Noninterest-Bearing Transaction Accounts

| November 9, 2010

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  November 9, 2010 The Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today approved a final rule to implement section 343 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act). Section 343 provides temporary unlimited coverage for noninterest-bearing transaction accounts. This separate coverage will become effective on […]

President Obama Still Behind The Curve As The New Normal Is Getting Old

| November 8, 2010

Huh?   Where has this guy been for the past two years?   According to The Wall Street Journal: ‘President Barack Obama warned in an interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes about the danger of a “new normal” taking hold of the economy – an environment in which businesses become accustomed to fewer employees and the U.S. […]

Germany Continues To Voice An Opinion On The U.S. Economic Policy…..Hint: They’re Not A Happy Camper!

| November 8, 2010

Germany:   U.S. debt and interest policy generally “doesn’t add up” and the U.S. model is in “deep crisis”.  .  Hmm, so what happens if this U.S. policy fails…….inquiring minds want to know?       German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schuble, offered some withering criticism of the Fed’s move and U.S. economics.  Here’s a bit from the […]

Cumberland’s Oil Slickonomics – Part 13 – Idle Iron

| November 8, 2010

Oil Slickonomics-Part 13-Idle Iron November 8, 2010 In our recent comment entitled Oil Slickonomics  Part 12 we discussed how the federal government is implementing a policy that functions as a de facto moratorium, even though the Obama administration has formally lifted the de jure oil drilling moratorium.  We appreciate the readers who responded, and we […]

Obama Health Care…Coming To You Soon! Doesn’t Look To Simple, Does It?

| November 8, 2010

To get a visual idea of the complexity surrounding the new health-care requirements, you can peruse the following chart prepared by the Joint Economic Congressional Committee, which outlines the bureaucratic Frankenstein that is being created. I’m printing the chart in a size that is too small to read here, just to give you the idea. […]

Cumberlands Oil Slickonomics – Part 12 – An Update

| November 7, 2010

Oil Slickonomics-Part 12-An Update November 4, 2010 We will start this note with two links.  The first is to the October 2010 edition of the National Geographic.  It is devoted to the Gulf oil spill, with a comprehensive report that includes excellent maps and photos.  Those who lean green will find support in this assemblage of […]

A Famous Quote…. And We Should Take Note

| November 6, 2010

Mark Twain Said That History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, It Just Rhymes.  The events we are experiencing today look a lot like the same experiences that we had in the 1930s. There are lessons to be taken away from the 1930s that are useful in evaluating both policy and markets today. The lesson that we learned […]

Hmm…..Either More People Are Retiring Or They’ve Just Plain Given Up!

| November 5, 2010

Labor force participation has now dropped to the lowest rate it has been since 1984, at 64.5%.

Americans On Foodstamps Hits New Record In August, Increase By Over Half A Million To 42.4 Million

| November 5, 2010

The WSJ Reports……. By population, Washington, D.C. had the largest share of residents receiving food stamps: More than a fifth, 21.1%, of its residents collected assistance in August. Washington was followed by Mississippi, where 20.1% of residents received food stamps, and Tennessee, where 20% tapped into the government nutrition program. Idaho posted the largest jump […]

U.S. Consumer Credit Increased $2.1 Billion In September

| November 5, 2010

Interestingly…..Credit-card debt declined for the 25th straight month, while non-revolving loans rose by the most since August 2007. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. unexpectedly increased in September by the most in two years, and saw a surge in non-revolving credit such as college loans and auto financing. Credit rose $2.1 billion and was more then estimated after […]

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Get Worse By The Minute….Just More Money Down The Toilet

| November 4, 2010

That flushing sound you hear is just more money down the toilet! Two weeks ago, the FHFA, using Moody’s assumptions and modelling, said that a worst case scenario for Fannie and Freddie could result in total costs to taxpayers of $363 billion, an incremental $220 billion to the $148 billion already spent to keep the […]

Rare Earth’s…..In China We Trust

| November 4, 2010

The so-called “rare earths” would not be rare earths…unless they were rare. “Basically, rare earths are exotic elements that are critical to the future of high tech, clean energy, Big Science and – oh by the way – national defense,” explains Byron King, editor of Outstanding Investments. “The list includes 17 elements like terbium, ytterbium, […]

El-Erian Of PIMCO (Worlds Largest Bond Fund Manager) Warns QE2 May Backfire, Sees QE3 Coming Soon

| November 3, 2010

Given the high market expectations, the US Federal Reserve had no choice but to announce a second tranche of quantitative easing, nicknamed QE2. But the measure is an inevitably blunt instrument for the difficult task of restoring growth and generating jobs. The benefits accruing to America come with burdens for other countries, and both could […]

26’th Sequential Week Of Outflows From Domestic Equity Mutual Funds

| November 3, 2010

One would think that we’re getting closer to an inflow week!! ICI Data for the week ended October 27th  registered a $2.9 billion outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, making 26 straight weeks, or half a year, of outflows. This brings the total to $84 billion. www.zerohedge.com

Indiana Posts Armed Guards At All State Unemployment Offices As 99-Week Jobless Benefits Start To Expire

| November 1, 2010

The new normal is not pleasant, and nobody wants to see this!   The overall cost for the Indiana security is $1 million, paid for with federal funds designated for administration of the unemployment system.  Indiana unemployment offices are starting to add armed security guards. The official explanation: “Armed security guards will be on hand at 36 […]

Looks Like A Ben Bernanke Moment After Wednesday’s Fed Decision!

| October 31, 2010

WSJ Says 107 Months to Clear Banks’ Housing Backlog.

| October 30, 2010

This article from the Wall Street Journal:    No matter how you slice it, the housing market faces almost nine years of foreclosure hangover.  That means materially lower prices are likely from here with a chance we fall off a cliff when (not if) the next economic dislocation shows up.  October 30, 2010   By Mark Whitehouse 107:  Is […]

The Reverse (Upside Down) Pyrimid

| October 29, 2010

In Spain, They Take Your Home But The Debt Stays With You Forever!

| October 28, 2010

So….The real question is how did personal liability mortgages ever become so common in Europe?  Why would anyone ever buy a house under such strenuous terms?  Inquiring minds want to know! By SUZANNE DALEY Published: October 27, 2010 MADRID — Manolo Marbán, 59, is still living in his house in Toledo and going to work in […]

Portugal Back On The Hot Seat…..Or Grill Shall We Say!

| October 27, 2010

The BBC reports:  “the minority government of Portugal has failed to gain opposition support for its proposed austerity budget. A failure to pass the budget could plunge the country back into the debt crisis it had seemingly escaped since the summer.” And this: “Prime Minister Jose Socrates threatened to quit if the budget fails, while the […]

25th Sequential Stock Fund Outflow….$81 Billion Year To Date

| October 27, 2010

ICI reported the 25th outflow in a row. Total YTD money redeemed is now $81 billion. From the market bottom in July, all the way to the current 2010 highs, the market has seen $51 billion in 16 sequential outflows. Yeh, so what!

Real World Inflation

| October 26, 2010

As is often the case, there is a big difference between what the government statistics are reporting and what’s going on in the real world. According to the most recent inflation reading published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices grew at an annual rate of just 1.1% in August. The government has […]

Home Lending To Drop Below $1 Trillion…..Lowest Level Since 1996

| October 26, 2010

By Jody Shenn Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) — Home lending in the U.S. will fall below $1 trillion next year to the lowest level since 1996, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Originations will decline to $996 billion in 2011, from a projected total of $1.4 trillion this year, the trade group said today in a […]

Real Estate Existing Home Sales Numbers Showed A 10% Jump, But Still Logged Third Worst Month In Record Keeping History

| October 25, 2010

Before anyone gets jazzed about this, the numbers will be revised next month, and percentages don’t tell the real story! The NAR reported September existing home sales came at 4.53 million units, a 10% jump from the prior downward revised number of 4.12 million, compared to expectations of 4.3 million. Keeping this number in perspective, it […]

The Cutting Of Popular Tax Deductions Is Now On The Table….First Up, Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction!

| October 25, 2010

This from The Wall Street Journal….Are they kidding?…….Nope…….You want civil unrest and riots, like they have in France,  just try to take away or cut the mortgage interest tax deduction……..and watch housing fall further at the same time.  Any Senator or Congressman can be voted out of office if this happens, but not until next election unfortunately.  Hot Hot Potatoes. Sacrosanct […]

The Mortgage Interest Deduction…..Why Home Buying Is Heavily Subsidized In The United States

| October 24, 2010

One of the sacred cows of our economy revolves around the mortgage interest tax deduction.  Home buying is heavily subsidized in the United States.  The Federal Reserve has injected trillions of dollars in purchasing mortgage backed securities and other questionable assets all for the purpose of keeping interest rates low.  Yet this is one area […]

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