thestatedtruth.com | January 20, 2011
A chart is worth a thousand words, or a couple hundred billion in real, incremental dollars. This is why things have been getting (slightly) better of late, but when it ends…not if, look out below. 2012-2014 look to be very tough years, if we survive the end of the Mayan Calender (Dec 21,2012) that is! www.zerohedge.com
thestatedtruth.com | January 19, 2011
This is a key story: There were a record low number of housing completions in 2010, breaking the record set in 2009. Â In 2010, 1 to 4 unit completions were at a record low 506 thousand. This was just below the 534 thousand units completed in 2009. This is far below the previous record […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 18, 2011
This morning, we see Britain’s consumer price index grew in December to an annualized 3.7%. Fuel prices are growing at their fastest pace since July, and food prices are rolling at a rate last seen in May 2009. Like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has an inflation “sweet spot†of 2%. But Britain’s […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 16, 2011
thestatedtruth.com | January 14, 2011
This can only go so far as the consumer is still over indebted and over taxed, while being hit with inflation (the government says no inflation) and flat earning power! Debt (other than homes) still has to be payed back at some point and time. U.S. banks are expanding their loans to consumers for the first […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 13, 2011
ICI just revised the last two data points of 2010 which were originally inflows, to one outflow and one minimal inflow.  Looking at last week’s flows, the first of the new year 2011 starts with an equity outflow of $4.2 billion and was the largest one week outflow since early October!
thestatedtruth.com | January 7, 2011
Geez, didn’t the government say things were getting better in the economy…..Well yes, if you are a “have”, but the “have nots” don’t seem to be seeing any improvement at all. Â
thestatedtruth.com | January 6, 2011
Rick’s Picks Thursday, January 6, 2011 “Phenomenally accurate forecastsâ€Â                                   (Cam Fitzgerald posted the following essay in the Rick’s Picks forum, but I am presenting it as a guest commentary because it discusses the all-too-real implications of America’s economic crisis so bluntly. Many of you, even the pessimists, will be troubled by this grim jeremiad, and […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 28, 2010
Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing . . . for Wednesday December 29, 2010:  Good evening;  The ‘Insolvent Age’ . . .well-describes the overall risk faced in 2011, which if viewed with full transparency, has risk of making a so-called ‘new normal’ seem comfortable. There are warning flags galore flying; and the irony is it […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 28, 2010
So, just wondering why this is such a surprise to the media types……Incomes are down (based on taxes paid) according to Trim Tabs, and home ownership maintenance expenses are rising across the board, including real estate taxes. The baby boomers are net sellers, not buyers. The middle class is being squeezed. The demographic economic model is to downsize […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 28, 2010
Hmm…… So many Americans have been jobless for so long that the government is changing how it records long-term unemployment.Citing what it calls “an unprecedented rise” in long-term unemployment, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), beginning Saturday, will raise from two years to five years the upper limit on how long someone can be […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 27, 2010
The median (defined as the amount separating the top 50% from the bottom 50% but not an average) retirement account for U.S. households is $2,000 (in other words half the population has more than $2,000 in retirement and half has less). This is why the vast majority of retirees depend on Social Security as their primary source […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 23, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | December 21, 2010
Southern California is looking at record amounts of rain……Interestingly, it was a cool summer and there was no fire season in California this year!
thestatedtruth.com | December 19, 2010
This chart pretty much sums things up……a trading range looks like the most likely scenario at best. If not, well…..everyone probably knows what the alternative would look like. Hint, the word starts with a D as in Down.
thestatedtruth.com | December 17, 2010
The gap between the top 1% and everyone else hasn’t been this wide since the Roaring Twenties……  http://www.businessinsider.com/15-charts-about-wealth-and-inequality-in-america-2010-4#the-gap-between-the-top-1-and-everyone-else-hasnt-been-this-bad-since-the-roaring-twenties-1
thestatedtruth.com | December 17, 2010
Tax rates are declining for everyone… But especially the top 1% . We would expect things to be pretty much the same in 2010 as they were in 2007. From: http://www.businessinsider.com/20-more-tax-facts-that-will-make-your-head-explode-2010-4#tax-rates-are-declining-for-everyone-especially-the-top-1-19
thestatedtruth.com | December 17, 2010
Liar Liar Pants On Fire! The chart below is total consumer credit outstanding. Interestingly, when we looked at it, somehow it showed an uptick. That seemed odd and didn’t square with the credit card data. Low and behold…… they (the government) now count student loans as consumer credit, whereas they did not in the past. Geez, so federally supported credit (ie. student-backed […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 16, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | December 15, 2010
This chart sure goes back a long ways in time!  1792-Present!  Geez
thestatedtruth.com | December 15, 2010
When was the last time we saw this chart turn down…..Umm, You’re right if you said we haven’t….Until now! www.mybudget360.com
thestatedtruth.com | December 15, 2010
ICI has just released money flows…..and we have the 32nd consecutive outflow from domestic equity mutual funds. Total outflows for the year to date are $96 billion.   We also saw for the first time in a while, an outflow of $401 million in taxable bond funds  (and $1.3 billion in outflows from muni bonds). And here is the cumulative flows chart:
thestatedtruth.com | December 9, 2010
Definition: A Credit Default Swap (CDS) is a swap contract and agreement in which the protection buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments (often referred to as the CDS “fee” or “spread”) to the protection seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if a credit instrument (typically a bond or loan) experiences a […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 9, 2010
From the looks of this, it understates the actual wealth loss by about 2-4% This from todays Federal Reserve Z1 report……”business debt increased to an all time record high of $7,351 billion, an $82 billion increase in the quarter”…..so yes I know corporate cash is very high, but so is corporate debt…….they’re borrowing to put cash on […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 8, 2010
ICI reports equity domestic funds saw outflows of $1,801MM last week, which is the 31st consecutive outflow.Â
thestatedtruth.com | December 6, 2010
Didn’t the government say things were getting better….by the looks of the chart below, we’ve seen a very anemic recovery considering all the money (debt) that has been thrown its way. The latest AAR Rail-Time Indicators report that seasonally adjusted rail carloads across all commodities have seen a sequential volume decline in three of the past […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 5, 2010
It tells us that things are not, repeat are not getting materially better. People are giving up on getting a job. This is not what we want to see, especially not at this point in an economic recovery (that’s what the government calls this). The Unemployment is shown by the (red line). The Employment-Population ratio declined to […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 5, 2010
Hmm…..It’s really a simple concept…..Even with sales below prior peeks, the auto makers are profitable now because they have shed so much debt. GM did it through bankruptcy which converted much of its high interest bond debt into equity, and Ford did a bond to stock swap and buy back.  When you don’t pay all of that interest, natuarlly your expenses […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 27, 2010
The number of days since the average borrower in foreclosure last made a mortgage payment is now 492 days up from 382 days a year ago and a low of 244 days in August 2007.
thestatedtruth.com | November 25, 2010
A re-designed bankruptcy law was the end result of a huge successful lobbying effort by the banks back in 2005. Congress hadn’t envisioned a surge in bankruptcies when it re-designed the bankruptcy law to make it harder for consumers to walk away from their debts. Americans are expected to file for bankruptcy-court protection this year at a […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 24, 2010
The October median new home price of $194,000 was the lowest recorded by the Census Bureau since the market peak.
thestatedtruth.com | November 24, 2010
It seems that the European bailout buck will stop with Portugal unless more money is added (it will be). When Europe created the EFSF it did not think it would need to serially bail out everyone.  But now the EFSF needs more money to cover a bailout of Spain, and then what about Italy? Inquiring minds want to know! […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 22, 2010
The Problem:Â Out of 113 million households, 1/100 of 1% rake in $10 million or more annually. As consumers, the top 5% carry the same weight as the bottom 80%. The top 10% take in 50% of the income. (The sources are listed in Two Americas: The Gap Between the Top 5% and the Bottom […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 14, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | November 8, 2010
To get a visual idea of the complexity surrounding the new health-care requirements, you can peruse the following chart prepared by the Joint Economic Congressional Committee, which outlines the bureaucratic Frankenstein that is being created. I’m printing the chart in a size that is too small to read here, just to give you the idea. […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 3, 2010
One would think that we’re getting closer to an inflow week!! ICI Data for the week ended October 27th  registered a $2.9 billion outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, making 26 straight weeks, or half a year, of outflows. This brings the total to $84 billion. www.zerohedge.com
thestatedtruth.com | October 27, 2010
ICI reported the 25th outflow in a row. Total YTD money redeemed is now $81 billion. From the market bottom in July, all the way to the current 2010 highs, the market has seen $51 billion in 16 sequential outflows. Yeh, so what!
thestatedtruth.com | October 24, 2010
One of the sacred cows of our economy revolves around the mortgage interest tax deduction. Home buying is heavily subsidized in the United States. The Federal Reserve has injected trillions of dollars in purchasing mortgage backed securities and other questionable assets all for the purpose of keeping interest rates low. Yet this is one area […]
thestatedtruth.com | October 20, 2010
ICI reports the latest fund flow data: flows into everything are up… except domestic stocks. The only silver lining: the outflow is declining, and we may see an inflow next week. The only marginal buyers continue to be the primary dealers (using POMO cash), pension funds, and algos. Weekly Flows: Cumulative Flows:
Coming Soon
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