PIMCO’s Bill Gross Talks About The U.S. Debt Ceiling And The New Normal

| January 6, 2011

CNBC interviews PIMCO’s Bill Gross……….Bill says that U.S. incomes will lag both commodity prices and Gold as U.S. debt rises about a trillion dollars every 12 months and debt to GDP rises above the 90-95% level in the next few years.

Bees, Which The Entire Human Food Chain Rests Are Suffering A Sharp Decline…How Important Is This? Uh…Well We May Be Looking At Major Commodity Food Shortages Next Year, So Yes It’s Very Important!

| January 5, 2011

I never new….as the old saying goes! From The Guardian: The abundance of four common species of bumblebee in the U.S. has dropped by 96% in just the past few decades, according to the most comprehensive national census of the insects [a three-year study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]. *** […]

Inflation Anybody? If You Said Yes, You’re In The Majority…. The Government However Says “There Is No Inflation” To The Old Folks Struggling On Social Security, While Giving Itself An Inflationary Pay Increase (We Know For Sure It Wasn’t Based On Merit)…..Those Dirty Slimmy Skunk Smelling Sewer Rats, We’ll Soon See If The New Rats Smell Any Different

| January 5, 2011

We have noticed the same kind of thing recently with a variety of products from yogurt to crackers and potato chips…..It’s the old candy bar trick all over again. Two months ago Zero Hedge first touched upon the topic of relative “value deflation” whereby prices for products are kept constant, even as the actual product provided […]

Global Food Prices At Record Highs And Heading Higher

| January 5, 2011

Global food prices hit a record high in December and are favored to continue rising in the year ahead due to inclement weather.  Can food riots that broke out around the world when prices last surged in 2008 be far behind?

Hmm….How About U.S. Consumption Drops 5%, The Dollar Falls And U.S. Exports Surge? Sounds As Good As Anything Else We’ve Heard!

| January 1, 2011

The question is, if consumption drops 5%, where is the growth going to come from?  Doesn’t that mean that somebody else needs to raise consumption? Well, yes…..Whom might that be, inquiring minds want to know!  Maybe the usual suspects, China, India, Brazil etc….then again will that make up for the U.S. and Europe drop because of austerity measures….um, […]

Latest Comments From Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing

| December 28, 2010

Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing . . . for Wednesday December 29, 2010:   Good evening;    The ‘Insolvent Age’ . . .well-describes the overall risk faced in 2011, which if viewed with full transparency, has risk of making a so-called ‘new normal’ seem comfortable. There are warning flags galore flying; and the irony is it […]

Gasoline On A Roll To The Upside….Here Is A Breakdown Of What Goes Into Each Gallon Of Gas At The Pump

| December 26, 2010

U.S. gasoline prices hit an average $3 a gallon for the first time in more than two years, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report. But there is no oil or gasoline shortage….So inquiring minds ask how could crude oil and gasoline be at this price level given ample supplies, and a lack luster macroeconomic […]

Oil Is Around $91 A Barrel, Here’s How It Effects Us

| December 23, 2010

The recent jump in crude to around the $91 area has wiped out virtually the entire benefit from the just passed payroll tax “stimulus”.  That’s just oil mind you, we haven’t even talked about the food inflation yet.   For every cent rise in gasoline,  the country loses $600 million in consumer buying power…….   And ….Every $1 rise […]

Economic Tid Bits

| December 16, 2010

Neal Soss at Credit Suisse: We have rising prices in gasoline and food.  That is worldwide.  It is also the warning sign of the worst-case “nightmare scenario.”  It as an “eruption of headline inflation (food and gasoline) with no accompanying pick-up in wages or real growth.”  David R. Kotok of Cumberland Advisors: Through the December […]

Wonder Why There Is No Inflation?

| December 7, 2010

Here is the real reason that the old folks get no cost of living increase for Social Security……Inflation data relies heavily on housing prices and removes food and energy costs.  No kidding!  Ah, but Congress gave themselves a raise this year, I guess they looked at it the other way around. U.S. government inflation data is “a […]

China And Russia Decide To Renounce U.S. Dollar In Bilateral Trade

| November 25, 2010

www.ingerletter.com This has been ignored in the press.  So why is this a big deal?  Well, because there are more dollars outstanding abroad then in the United States, and we’re really just beginning to see this kind of dollar mischief.  But trust the world, there will be more. China, Russia Quit Dollar By Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun (China […]

The Resilient Household

| November 14, 2010

Food Price Fears May Be Near…..U.S. Warns On Crop Short Falls

| November 10, 2010

A major point in the long weather cycle occurs in 2011…….Demand is soaring and crop yields are shrinking. This alone will send agricultural prices higher.  Now add aggressive currency devaluation into the mix and we can better understand the direction of capital flows.  The phrase budget pain will soon redefine the grocery checkout experience. From the FT:  (FT) — The spectre […]

Cumberland’s Oil Slickonomics – Part 13 – Idle Iron

| November 8, 2010

Oil Slickonomics-Part 13-Idle Iron November 8, 2010 In our recent comment entitled Oil Slickonomics  Part 12 we discussed how the federal government is implementing a policy that functions as a de facto moratorium, even though the Obama administration has formally lifted the de jure oil drilling moratorium.  We appreciate the readers who responded, and we […]

Cumberlands Oil Slickonomics – Part 12 – An Update

| November 7, 2010

Oil Slickonomics-Part 12-An Update November 4, 2010 We will start this note with two links.  The first is to the October 2010 edition of the National Geographic.  It is devoted to the Gulf oil spill, with a comprehensive report that includes excellent maps and photos.  Those who lean green will find support in this assemblage of […]

A Famous Quote…. And We Should Take Note

| November 6, 2010

Mark Twain Said That History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, It Just Rhymes.  The events we are experiencing today look a lot like the same experiences that we had in the 1930s. There are lessons to be taken away from the 1930s that are useful in evaluating both policy and markets today. The lesson that we learned […]

Rare Earth’s…..In China We Trust

| November 4, 2010

The so-called “rare earths” would not be rare earths…unless they were rare. “Basically, rare earths are exotic elements that are critical to the future of high tech, clean energy, Big Science and – oh by the way – national defense,” explains Byron King, editor of Outstanding Investments. “The list includes 17 elements like terbium, ytterbium, […]

Real World Inflation

| October 26, 2010

As is often the case, there is a big difference between what the government statistics are reporting and what’s going on in the real world. According to the most recent inflation reading published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices grew at an annual rate of just 1.1% in August. The government has […]

Russia Buying Gold

| October 11, 2010

Russia Bought More Than 100 Tons of Gold This Year, RIA Novosti Reports By Brad Cook – Oct 11, 2010 Russia’s central bank has bought more than 100 tons of gold this year, all of it on the domestic market, RIA Novosti reported, citing Bank Rossii.

You Got To Be Kidding…..Fed Is Now Second Largest Holder Of U.S. Treasury Bonds

| October 6, 2010

Today’s POMO is over: at $2.069 billion, the operation was right in line with  expectations, coming in at a lofty 12.16 submitted to accepted ratio, as investors apparently are not too crazy about the yield perspective of the 4 2013 CUSIPs that were repruchased. However, what is far more important is that with holdings of […]

CIA Says Terror Plot Planned On Europe And The West

| September 27, 2010

Heightened Terror Threats In Europe WASHINGTON….. In an effort to preempt a suspected terrorist plot(s) against European targets, the Central Intelligence Agency has targeted missile strikes against militants in Pakistan’s tribal regions, according to current and former officials. The strikes, launched from unmanned drone aircraft, represent a rare use of the CIA drones to preempt a possible […]

Consequences Every Place In The New World Normal

| September 23, 2010

Sorry, But The Answer Of Too Much Debt Is Not More Debt In Price Is Knowledge If you told Rip van Bondtrader that gold had risen to a record during his decade-long slumber, he’d want to know what the inflation outlook was, and how badly he’d gotten killed on his bond investments. He’d be astonished to […]

Best Commodity Bet? Goldman Sees A Clear Winner

| September 17, 2010

By Bloomberg News September 17, 2010 The best returns in commodities over the next 12 months will probably be in energy and the biggest losses in agriculture, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. The bank is forecasting a 27 percent advance in energy over 12 months, a 17 percent jump in precious metals and a 15 […]

New York Fed To Buy $27 Billion In Treasurys……

| September 13, 2010

So what will bolt from the gate fastest Stocks, Bonds or could Gold and Silver lead the way?  The New York Fed has just disclosed it will buy $27 billion in Treasurys between mid-Sept and mid-October. Using the Basel III blessed 30x leverage, this money, once it makes its way to the Primary Dealers, should be […]

John Williams Of Shadow Stats Says Economic Downturn Re-Intensifies!

| September 13, 2010

From John Williams of shadowstats.com……… – Protracted Economic Downturn Re-Intensifies  – Systemic Stability: “Tap-Dancing on a Land Mine”  – Risks of U.S. Dollar Instability and Systemic-Salvation Efforts Pose          Severe Inflation Threat www.shadowstats.com

World Commodities…..An Interactive Look At What’s Left

| September 12, 2010

09/12/2010 Scientific American has done a summary of peak commodity levels as well as depletion projections for some of the most critical resources in the world including oil, gold, silver copper, not to mention renewable water, as well as estimating general food prices over the next half century. Generally speaking, regardless of whether one believes […]

Gold….Let’s Review Some Facts

| September 6, 2010

Have you ever wondered about which countries have the biggest gold reserves or are the largest producers of gold? Gold Atomic Number: 79 Symbol: Au Atomic Weight: 196.9665 Discovery: Known since prehistoric time Word Origin: Sanskrit Jval; Anglo-Saxon gold; meaning gold – also Latin aurum, shining dawn  Carats and carobs The word ‘carat’ (the measurement for gold purity) comes […]

Jim Rickards……”A Must Listen To” Interview About The Economy And More

| September 4, 2010

A must listen to interview with Jim Rickards about our economy and more.   We all need to be aware of the direction of things to come.   This interview from Jim Rickards will help in understanding these things better.   Click on the following link or paste into your browser:     http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/9/4_Jim_Rickards.html   Biography of James G. Rickards…..James G. Rickards is […]

Storm Watch…. Hurricane Earl

| August 31, 2010

Storm Watch…. Hurricane Earl www.ingerletter.com

China Cutting Back 72% Of Its Exports Of Rare Earth Metals

| August 29, 2010

Interesting to say the least….rare earth elemnts are used in almost everything that is high tech……. Bloomberg reports that China is cutting back 72% of its exports of Rare Earth metals.  China has said that environmental issues are the reason for the cutbacks. 72% drop in availability of any commodity is important. RE’s are important. Japan […]

George Friedman Of STRATFOR: China “Will Have A Collapse” In The Coming Decade And America Will Be The Primary Beneficiary

| August 29, 2010

Some food for thought from George Friedman, CEO of STRATFOR, who believes China “will have a collapse” in the coming decade due to internal striff, an export based economy, and low internal rates of return,  It will set America up as the primary beneficiary in a new Golden Era. Mr. Friedman’s views are controversial but well worth listening […]

Just How Important Are Labor Costs…..Answer: Very!

| August 26, 2010

One reason of many for a tough road ahead…..        From JPM……The latest profit recovery (the three red dots) is reliant on declining labor costs like none before it. A profit recovery whose foundation is so reliant on sustained high productivity and low real wage growth should not command a very high P/E multiple.   A recent JPM […]

August 2010 HAPPENS Once Every 823 Years

| August 14, 2010

INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT THIS AUGUST This August has 5 Sundays, 5 Mondays, 5 Tuesdays  It happens once in 823 years

Cumberland….More On The Oil Spill And Its Effects

| August 12, 2010

The Oil  Spill August 12, 2010 It has been over three months since the beginning of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  Since then it has cost billions of dollars in terms of lost jobs, tourism, and the battering that local fishing industries have had to endure. At Cumberland Advisors, we have written […]

The Deficit Is Gowing And Growing And Growing And……..

| August 12, 2010

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary This is simply not going away. There is no practical means by which it can be drained ever! It is growing in a way that is unsustainable by any measure. Rather than being contained we are on the threshold of another round of unprecedented paper money creation. The reason it is happening […]

The Devel’s In The Details

| August 10, 2010

www.jsmineset.com

Stratfor……Drought, Fire and Grain in Russia

| August 10, 2010

Drought, Fire and Grain in Russia August 10, 2010 By Lauren Goodrich Three interlocking crises are striking Russia simultaneously: the highest recorded temperatures Russia has seen in 130 years of recordkeeping; the most widespread drought in more than three decades; and massive wildfires that have stretched across seven regions, including Moscow. The crises threaten the […]

Here In Lies A Big Problem In Our Economy Until After The 2012-2013 Time Period

| August 4, 2010

  Source:  CREonline Does the above chart look daunting?  It should.  The peak won’t hit until 2012 when nearly $350 billion in CRE loans will come due.  And just look at the amount held by banks and thrifts.  This is why predicting another 1,000 bank failures (at least) is within the cards.  The connections between […]

British Petroleum Says Blown-Out Gulf Well Is in ‘Static Condition’!

| August 4, 2010

Well plugged…..Let’s hope so.  ON THE GULF OF MEXICO — In a significant step toward stopping the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history, BP said Wednesday mud that was forced down its blown-out well was holding back the flow of crude in the Gulf of Mexico and it was in a “static condition.” There is […]

Sultans Of Swap……Gordon T Long

| August 2, 2010

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead BIS – The Super SIV Solution The news rocked the global gold market when an almost obscure line item in the back of a 216 page document released by an equally obscure organization was recently unearthed. Thrust into the unwanted glare of the spotlight, the little […]

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