thestatedtruth.com | December 4, 2010
As expected the Senate votes No on tax deal…..around and around we go, where we stop nobody knows! Democrats are demanding a one-year renewal of jobless benefits for hundreds of thousands of Americans or no deal on tax cuts. The benefits begin to expire this week.  But….Obama’s top economic advisers are in talks with key lawmakers […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 2, 2010
Let’s dig a little deeper on this subject…..Here’s what Bloomberg had to say about this morning’s reported jump in pending home sales (signed sales agreements). Pending sales of U.S. existing houses unexpectedly jumped by a record 10 percent in October, indicating the industry at the center of the last recession is stabilizing as the job […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 2, 2010
A holder of a bond may “buy protection†to hedge its risk of default. In its simplest form, a credit default swap is a bilateral contract between the buyer and seller of protection. The CDS will refer to a “reference entity” or “reference obligor”, usually a corporation or government. The reference entity is not a […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 2, 2010
We’ll have to see how this plays out in the U.S. Senate over the next few days and weeks. But as everybody knows, time is running out for 2010. WASHINGTON…..The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation to make permanent tax cuts only for households earning less than $250,000 in a symbolic vote aimed at the Democratics as the […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 2, 2010
That’s why they call these types of high yield high risk bonds ,” Junk Bonds”……  High-yield, or junk, debt is rated below BBB- by S&P and an equivalent Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service. So the governments of the world take interest rates down to current ultra low levels and leave them there for a prolonged period, forcing […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 2, 2010
The other shoe is dropping in real estate. The banks have a lot of inventory to sell, so this will take a while! Sales of existing homes, which make up more than 90 percent of the market, declined more than forecast in October amid the foreclosure moratoriums and the absence of the tax credit of as […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 1, 2010
Yes, you are wondering how this is possible while the market is going up? The logical answer is the powers to be (government) have total control of things for now….but if something should happen to change that (and it will), run baby run! ICI reports for the week ending November 24, we had $2.6 billion in outflows from […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 1, 2010
David Kotok does a good job of explaining things about this complex problem in Europe. Cumberland Advisors European Contagion December 1, 2010 First an update. We are scheduled to guest-host CNBC Worldwide Exchange from the London Studio on Friday, December 10. US viewers may see it at 5 AM New York time. We may start […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 30, 2010
Democrats have left themselves in a tough spot on the Bush tax cuts. After delaying the issue until after the election and then being trounced in that election, they find themselves with little leverage. If they cannot come up with a plan that can win 60 votes in the Senate, which means at least two […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 30, 2010
Buy back mortgage contracts are getting interesting. It looks like a cat fight just starting…… You don’t think the banksters want to own that crap they sold to Fannie and Freddie do you? They thought it was a free ride. But now it doesn’t look so free……The expected amount so far refused exceedes $120 billion. This […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 29, 2010
We are all going to be real frugal if this plan see’s the light of day! Currently, individual retirees with $34,000 in outside income and couples with $44,000 must pay taxes on 85 percent of their benefits. The Third Way plan would require individuals earning $50,000 a year and couples receiving $60,000 to pay taxes on […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 29, 2010
It looks like the republican tea party is having an effect of President Obama, but let’s not forget that this pay freeze comes at all time record high pay levels for government workers.  It looks like the can gets kicked down the road a while, then we’ll start to see pay CUTS! By PETER BAKER Published: November 29, […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 27, 2010
More than 90% of employees opt for a lump-sum payout from their pension plan when given the choice.  So the Pension Protection Act was signed in August of 2006 by President George W. Bush. But who does it protect. Well certainly not the employee! Interestingly, the current change has received so little notice that most people aren’t […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 25, 2010
A re-designed bankruptcy law was the end result of a huge successful lobbying effort by the banks back in 2005. Congress hadn’t envisioned a surge in bankruptcies when it re-designed the bankruptcy law to make it harder for consumers to walk away from their debts. Americans are expected to file for bankruptcy-court protection this year at a […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 25, 2010
From Bloomberg News By Zoltan Simon Nov 25, 2010 Hungary is giving its citizens an ultimatum: move your private-pension fund assets to the state or lose your state pension. Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy announced the policy yesterday, escalating a government drive to bring 3 trillion forint ($14.6 billion) of privately managed pension assets under state […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 25, 2010
www.ingerletter.com This has been ignored in the press. So why is this a big deal? Well, because there are more dollars outstanding abroad then in the United States, and we’re really just beginning to see this kind of dollar mischief. But trust the world, there will be more. China, Russia Quit Dollar By Su Qiang and Li Xiaokun (China […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 24, 2010
It seems that the European bailout buck will stop with Portugal unless more money is added (it will be). When Europe created the EFSF it did not think it would need to serially bail out everyone.  But now the EFSF needs more money to cover a bailout of Spain, and then what about Italy? Inquiring minds want to know! […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 21, 2010
So,  there will probably be a new vote in congress for unemployment benefits before year end, seeking a simple majority to pass, unlike the recent legislative tactic brought by the Democrats requiring a super majority (2/3’s) vote…..which failed! As for the tax issue vote, it’s anyones guess. The Administration has said it wants all tax increases to […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 21, 2010
Reckless and Irresponsible are the only (2) words for this….. Iowa Gov. Chet Culver’s administration agreed Friday to offer pay increases for state employees that will cost taxpayers more than $200 million, despite Republican requests that the decisions be delayed until Terry Branstad becomes governor in January.A Branstad spokesman called the deal “reckless,” and House Republican […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 21, 2010
Ireland has an unprecedented budget deficit — equaling one-third of its economic output this year! This bailout is a no-brainer, but up until now Ireland has said they didn’t need any help…..Geez! Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said Ireland will apply for a bailout as it sets itself up to be the second euro member to seek a rescue […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 18, 2010
Home-mortgage rates surged to their highest level in three months, showing implications of the recent spike in Treasury yields and causing another headache for the Fed. The rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.39% last week, according to Freddie Mac, up from a record-low 4.17% the week before. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were 3.76%, up […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 18, 2010
Let’s look behind the scenes here.   This vote required a supermajority in the House of Representatives because of a legislative tactic purposely used by the Democrats. So…It required approval from two-thirds of the House for passage and was (solely) used to portray Republicans as unsympathetic. Current benefits are now set to expire on Nov. 30 for an estimated 4 million Americans. Legislation that would […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 18, 2010
If this happens, there will be no winners. Interest rates would rise rapidly, real estate would see a new leg down (bigger then anyone thought possible) and stock and commodity markets across the globe would implode!  Robert Rubin: “U.S. In Terribly Dangerous Territory,” Bond Market May Be Headed For “Implosion”  Aaron Task Warning of the risk […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 18, 2010
Prime means the top qualified and most credit worthy people, the highest rated and least likely to default. Foreclosures on prime fixed-rate mortgages in the U.S. jumped to a record in the third quarter as unemployment strained household budgets of the most credit worthy borrowers. Homeowners are falling behind on their mortgage payments as job cuts […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 17, 2010
ICI Data shows the 28’th consecutive week of domestic equity fund outflows and $86 billion in outflows for the year!Â
thestatedtruth.com | November 17, 2010
It all sounds good but not so fast……GM’s owners, including the U.S. Treasury, sold at least $15.8 billion of common shares at $33 each, making it the second-largest U.S. Initial Public Offering (IPO) on record according to data compiled by Bloomberg. GM received $49.5 billion in a taxpayer bailout just last year. The Treasury, which is taking a loss on […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 17, 2010
Looks like the VAT (Value Added Tax) or what is also known as the Consumption Tax is picking up steam. We suggest that time and understanding be entered into any equation of change. Let’s try to simplify the tax system going forward, not complicate things further. All of this spending got us nowhere.  The nation cannot […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 16, 2010
John Mauldin Reviews Gary Shilling’s Brand New Book,  The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies For A Decade Of Slow Growth And Deflation. Some of his opinions are covered below. Roadblocks on the deleveraging highway may include a crisis in U.S. commercial real estate (Chart 5) that could exceed the earlier one in housing. Then there’s a possible […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 16, 2010
CNBC’s Diana Olick reports that the investigation into the biggest financial fraud in recent history is about to be closed. State AGs are nearing a settlement with banks, which will slap a few wrists, see banks put some money in a settlement fund, and will result in some principal reductions.  Then everything will be well again.  Oh, and banker […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 16, 2010
It looks like the day of reckoning is close at hand for state governments. Illinois faces a deficit for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2011, that could reach $15 billion—more than half the state’s general-fund budget. California faces a deficit next year of $25.4 billion, twice the size of previous forecasts and California Gov. […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 15, 2010
The rate will tell the story. If the rate is reasonable then it is illogical. If it is illogical then QE (Quantitative Easing) has started to bail out states.           Jim Sinclair This two-part sale of so-called revenue anticipation notes (Rans) allows California to bridge the gap to its tax season in the spring…… Hopefully!  Notice […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 15, 2010
Europe Stumbles Blindly Towards Its 1931 Moment By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Nov 15, 2010 Unless the ECB takes fast and dramatic action, it risks destroying the currency it is paid to manage, and allowing a political catastrophe to unfold in Europe. If mishandled, Ireland could all too easily become a sovereign version of Credit Anstalt – […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 14, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | November 13, 2010
John Mauldin says…….”If the Bush tax cuts are not extended, in my opinion it is almost a lock that we go into recession next year, unemployment goes to 12%, and underemployment gets even worse”. The only real way to pay for all these benefits will ultimately be a value-added tax, or VAT.    A VAT looks […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 13, 2010
This is peanuts compared to what the OTC derivative credit default swaps are going to cost. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, U.S. cities saw their general fund revenue fall the most since at least 1986 in the budget year that ended June 30, according to the National League of Cities.   States now face […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 13, 2010
It’s the rainy season in California…..Schwarzenegger Declares Emergency, Calls Special Budget Session November 12, 2010 By Michael B. Marois Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, citing a $25.4 billion budget gap over the next 19 months, declared a fiscal emergency and called lawmakers to a special session next month to begin dealing with […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 12, 2010
This is called kicking the can down the road!   “You can tell from the FSB statements that there’s been a huge amount of controversy,†said Barbara Matthews,  managing director of BCM International Regulatory Analytics LLC in Washington. “Some of these issues have been on the international agenda for decades, and still there’s no end in sight […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 10, 2010
This is unbelievable….beyond belief……..California’s deficit over the next year and half has gone vertical soaring to $25.4 billion. California faces a far-larger budget shortfall than state officials were projecting only weeks ago. The deficit over the next year and half has soared to $25.4 billion, the state’s chief budget analyst said on Wednesday. The startling figure […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 10, 2010
A presidential commission’s leaders proposed a $3.8 trillion deficit-cutting plan that would trim Social Security and Medicare, reduce income-tax rates and eliminate tax breaks including the mortgage-interest deduction. November 10, 2010 Bloomberg Wiping out all tax breaks, including the home mortgage deduction, while lowering tax rates would save $100 billion a year according to Erskine Bowles, co-chairman […]
thestatedtruth.com | November 9, 2010
Deficits such as these are not limited to California. Illinois, Wisconsin, Texas, New York, New Jersey, and/or nearly ever State in the Union have drained their unemployment insurance funds and must start paying the federal government interest on the borrowed money in 2011. The markets already know that there’s no way the States will have […]
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