thestatedtruth.com | March 5, 2011
Cumberland Advisors David Kotok always does a good job on the important issues…..it’s a good read! $115 Oil, Contagion and Central Banks March 5, 2011 “… there’s so much unrest that one can actually sense or imagine unknown nano-particles of rage colliding in mid-air…â€Â (Source: a private person who screens Middle East media for me […]
thestatedtruth.com | February 24, 2011
Does anyone really think there is a recovery going on! ” Less than 500 homes sold in the over $750,000 and only 19k total new homes were sold. The lowest monthly total ever. (and of the 19K, 53% were vacant lots or under construction). “Sales of new single-family houses in January 2011 were at a seasonally […]
thestatedtruth.com | February 17, 2011
We’ve been talking about this for a while….Rapidly rising food prices triggered the latest round of civil disorder around the world, as it did the first round during 2008. The picture may get bleaker over the next few years. Cumberland Advisors Khamsin February, 17, 2011 “This is not just a warm wind, but a dust-laden, suffocating […]
thestatedtruth.com | February 15, 2011
This was a no brain’er, sooner or later you just knew the banks were going to want a larger down payment on the purchase of a house. How novel to think it might improve delinquencies….Inquiring minds say Duh. By S. MITRA KALITA   (From The Wall Street Journal) The down payments demanded by banks to buy homes have ballooned […]
thestatedtruth.com | February 11, 2011
This had better be good, being that the baby boomers will be sellers and the youngsters are broke! The Obama administration unveiled a proposal Friday for winding down mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, spelling out three options for what could take their place and setting the stage for a debate over the nation’s […]
thestatedtruth.com | February 9, 2011
According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities for the Second Quarter 2010 (most recent), the notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks is around $223.4 TRILLION. Yep, that’s T as in Trillions! Five banks account for 95% of this. Can you guess […]
thestatedtruth.com | February 8, 2011
thestatedtruth.com | February 3, 2011
Uh…OK let her rip Big Ben….Speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, Ben Bernanke said it’s up to other countries to control their own inflation. It’s not a U.S. problem! By the way big Ben, the continuous commodity index is on a roll to the upside…oh well, guess that doesn’t count. Just so you know……. By Definition:  The Thomson Reuters […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 28, 2011
Jim Grant is well known and respected in interest rate market circles, but he has some harsh words here….he’s letting off some steam on Ben Bernanke. Pay attention everyone, Jim is one of the big ten….that is one of the smartest 10 guys around. Jim Grant appeared on Bloomberg TV, telling Margaret Brennan upfront that […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 27, 2011
Billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros said Thursday in an interview with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo that the deficits facing U.S. municipalities will be the “drama of the next year.†Soros also said that what ever recovery we have will be finished by mid year and that interest rates will start to rise later in the year.Â
thestatedtruth.com | January 23, 2011
It looks like the calm before another storm created by CRE loans in the next 3 years. We know vacancy rates remain high and we know values have not recovered. LTV ratios look to be very tight for many a bank CRE loan. As mentioned below, we crescendo in terms of CRE loan maturities between now and 2013. […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 23, 2011
We have followed Clif Droke for a number of years, and his record with the Kress Cycles is one step ahead of most others. The Kress cycles will take on the financial markets, and by extension the economy from 2012-2014. This will come as a shock for the most optimistic observers. The final “hard down†phase of the […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 20, 2011
A chart is worth a thousand words, or a couple hundred billion in real, incremental dollars. This is why things have been getting (slightly) better of late, but when it ends…not if, look out below. 2012-2014 look to be very tough years, if we survive the end of the Mayan Calender (Dec 21,2012) that is! www.zerohedge.com
thestatedtruth.com | January 20, 2011
Hmm…They’re really getting serious about this. These pensions will never survive in the current form. Only a matter of time! Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers. […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 18, 2011
Dr Joe Duarte has a good feel for this…..With states cutting budgets across the board, where is the growth going to come from? In San Diego an interesting fight between the city and its unions is developing that could set the stage for how things work out in other places with similar problems. According to […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 17, 2011
This read actually makes a lot of sense, and it takes the government out of the picture. We would add one more thing….. that is for most mortgages to be assumable like they used to be. The negative short term draw back is that like everything the government gets involved with, once they leave, there will […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 14, 2011
This can only go so far as the consumer is still over indebted and over taxed, while being hit with inflation (the government says no inflation) and flat earning power! Debt (other than homes) still has to be payed back at some point and time. U.S. banks are expanding their loans to consumers for the first […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 14, 2011
This from Art Cashin on the floor of The New York Stock Exchange……..Basically the government doesn’t get it!  Last Friday, speaking in Germany, [European Central Bank President] Jean-Claude Trichet said it best: “Monetary policy responsibility cannot substitute for government irresponsibility.†Fiery Fedspeak –There were some interesting comments from several Fed presidents yesterday. One eye-opener came […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 10, 2011
If this is plan B, inquiring minds wonder what plan C would look like! In what may one day be heralded as the formal proposal that proverbially started it all, the Commonwealth of Virginia introduced House Resolution No. 557 to establish a joint subcommittee to “to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 10, 2011
Push will turn into a shove…..Turn out the lights, the party is over!  Meredith Whitney’s prediction, which everyone was quick to mock and ridicule, is about to come back with a vengeance. State and Local finances are at risk. This idea is likely to pick up steam along the way. Some unpleasant news for pensioned […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 9, 2011
This is why Gold and Silver has been sought by the smart money! Brazil has warned that the world is on course for a full-blown “trade war†as it stepped up its rhetoric against exchange rate manipulation. Guido Mantega, finance minister, told the Financial Times that Brazil was preparing new measures to prevent further appreciation of […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 7, 2011
Uh….so will this really matter, other then the banks paying a bunch of lobbyists another billion dollars to fix things? Inquiring minds want to know! Wells Fargo & Co. and U.S. Bancorp  lost a foreclosure case in Massachusetts’s highest court that will guide lower courts in that state and may influence others in the clash between […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 7, 2011
Let’s call a spade, a spade. Seriously….this is a “HOT POTATO” to the tenth degree! Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday ruled out a central bank bailout of state and local governments hung with big municipal debt burdens, saying the Fed had limited legal authority to help. Bernanke: If municipal defaults do become a problem, it would […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 5, 2011
According to just released Census Bureau data, in 2009 total state revenue fell by 31%, from $1.6 trillion to $1.1 trillion. “The large decrease in total revenue was mainly caused by the substantial decrease in social insurance trust revenue. Social insurance trust revenue is made up of four categories — public employee retirement, unemployment compensation, workers […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 2, 2011
The United States and its leaders are stuck in what is called a predicament. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs…. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 2, 2011
Here in lies the problem….Fred Siegel, a historian at the conservative-leaning Manhattan Institute, has written of the “New Tammany Hall,†which he describes as the alliance between public officials and labor. “Public unions have had no natural adversary; they give politicians political support and get good contracts back,†“It’s uniquely dysfunctional.†In California, pension costs […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 2, 2011
It should be a national law that the IDIOTS running things at least understand basic math! If so, we wouldn’t be in this mess now. This sets the table…..you can’t go back to 2008 spending levels and still see growth in the economy. Plain and simple! On the other hand, we can never grow our […]
thestatedtruth.com | January 1, 2011
TrimTabs’ Charles Biderman reviews fund flows below….says this will end badly once QE2 ends unless we have endless quantitative easing  forever! Hmm, endless QE, now there’s an idea that only the government could conceive of! Equity fund flows were mixed. Global equity funds posted a respectable inflow of $87 billion in 2010, up modestly from $62 billion in […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 29, 2010
ICI reports U.S. domestic equity funds saw an inflow of $335 million for the first time in 34 weeks. This compared with last week’s $2.4 billion outflow. So after pulling money for 33 consecutive weeks, and withdrawing over $98 billion in capital from domestic equity mutual funds, the record has ended. Muni bonds are now the […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 26, 2010
Beware of the “Ides of March”….This makes all the sense in the world, as the second crisis will likely be bigger and more dynamic then the first one.  America is storing up a second financial crisis by keeping interest rates at record low levels, according to David Einhorn, the hedge fund manager who first publicly […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 26, 2010
Nearly 100 U.S. banks that got bailout funds from the federal government now show signs they are close to failing. The total, based on an analysis of third-quarter financial results by The Wall Street Journal, is up from 86 in the second quarter, reflecting eroding capital levels, a pileup of bad loans and warnings from […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 25, 2010
The new world order will see tax hikes every where, it’s unavoidable! Cities across the nation are raising property taxes citing rising pension and health-care costs for their employees and retirees. Local officials and government workers say a confluence of factors is driving the increases, including the need to make up for staggering investment losses […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 22, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | December 20, 2010
$2 Trillion Debt Crisis Threatens To Bring Down 100+ U.S. Cities Way to go Meredith Whitney…..Logic says the states will be doing huge (really huge) cut backs and layoffs…..So inquiring minds want to know how the economy can grow in these circumstances. To all of the economists out there, it sounds like Meredith is one of the few that gets it! […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 16, 2010
Neal Soss at Credit Suisse: We have rising prices in gasoline and food. That is worldwide. It is also the warning sign of the worst-case “nightmare scenario.â€Â It as an “eruption of headline inflation (food and gasoline) with no accompanying pick-up in wages or real growth.â€Â David R. Kotok of Cumberland Advisors: Through the December […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 16, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | December 16, 2010
The most recent look at the 30 Year Cash Fannie Mortgage showed a rise by 11 bps overnight, and by a stunning 1% in the last month. At 4.703% the prevailing wholesale mortgage rate is back to the highest it has been since May 2010. And while some have speculated that this inflection in rates would have […]
thestatedtruth.com | December 15, 2010
This chart sure goes back a long ways in time!  1792-Present!  Geez
thestatedtruth.com | December 13, 2010
This added interest expense should bust state and local budgets for next year. So what’s a borrower to do? Well to start…cut backs are in order across the board and that’s official! Investors are demanding higher interest payments on municipal bonds in a race for year-end issuance.  Yields are pushing highest rates since 2009 while the Build America Bonds program appeared […]
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