thestatedtruth.com | October 19, 2010
10/19/2010 The banks have a $3 trillion footnote on their balance sheets known as CRE. They are lucky they’re not insolvent: the Moody’s REAL/Commercial Property Price Index index dropped by 3.3% in August, and is now 45.1% lower compared to the October 2007 peak. Moody’s Summary Points: The National — All Property Type Aggregate Index recorded a […]
thestatedtruth.com | October 13, 2010
 ICI has just reported the 23rd sequential outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, this time redeeming $5.6 billion, the highest since the beginning of September, bringing the total YTD mutual fund redemptions to $80 billion. Weekly Outflows: Cumulative Outflows: www.zerohedge.com
thestatedtruth.com | September 29, 2010
Money flows have shown limited effects on markets recently. The Government and trading robots are now in total control. This unusual minimal negative effect would not have happened in the 1970-2000 markets.  ICI has just reported that in the week ended September 22, domestic equity mutual funds saw a 21st sequential outflow of $2.5 billion, bringing the total Year To Date […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 26, 2010
Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter  Pushing on a String   by John Mauldin September 24, 2010 In this issue: Pushing on a String Let’s Shift the Focus An Invitation to an Inflation Party Ten Years and Counting This week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 22, 2010
The stock market is now virtually unchanged in 2010, even as almost $80 billion in equity-capital has been withdrawn.  So here is the question: How is this possible? Well….it’s a deep subject and we don’t know! 20’th Consecutive Week Of Outflows Beginning on May 5, there have been 20 consecutive outflows from domestic mutual equity funds. […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 22, 2010
Next up….Currency evolved hyper inflation caused by the Fed’s actions to save the world, as the dollar becomes worth much less and commodities without debt attached go vertical (such as food, gold, silver, farm land etc.).  The only real question seems to be when, not if.  In the U.S. we are trying to work through the legacy of accumulating lots […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 20, 2010
According to calculations from the Federal Reserve, household wealth tumbled a whopping $17 trillion during the crisis – or about 27%. Since the depths of the crisis, however, Americans have recovered about $5 trillion of household wealth. Only $12 trillion to go! For perspective, $12 trillion is nearly equal to one year’s US GDP. It’s […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 18, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | September 18, 2010
Gary Shilling In terms of spending and saving, note that whatever has been going on in the consumer arena has been supported by massive federal stimuli. Those stimuli may persist at near current levels in future years due to chronic high unemployment, as noted in earlier Insights, but seems unlikely to rise at the rates […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 18, 2010
By Gary Shilling Consumers Go On Strike It wasn’t until late 2008 that we had the collapse in home equity as house prices nosedived (Chart 2), rising layoffs (Chart 3) and the drying up of consumer lending drove consumers into retrenchment. But they suddenly went on a buyers strike in the last four months of 2008, […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 16, 2010
The median household income in the United States is $46,326. That means 50 percent of our population lives on $46,326 or less a year. Dual earner households have a higher median income at $67,348. To highlight this discrepancy, here is a chart showing how the household income is distributed: More at: http://www.mybudget360.com/how-much-does-the-average-american-make-breaking-down-the-us-household-income-numbers/
thestatedtruth.com | September 13, 2010
From John Williams of shadowstats.com……… – Protracted Economic Downturn Re-Intensifies – Systemic Stability: “Tap-Dancing on a Land Mine” – Risks of U.S. Dollar Instability and Systemic-Salvation Efforts Pose         Severe Inflation Threat www.shadowstats.com
thestatedtruth.com | September 9, 2010
Shifting Demographics A factor affecting demand is shifting demographics. The Baby Boomer generation is no longer the consumption engine it has been to the US economy.  We have a generation that, as has been predicted for some time, is reducing its expenses but it may be even more dramatic than forecasted. With home housing […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 8, 2010
Between 1974 and 1982 nominal stock prices drifted slowly higher as corporate earnings picked up; thereby compressing valuations and ending the bear-market. But from the current look of things we are a ways from that outcome.   Â
thestatedtruth.com | September 6, 2010
Have you ever wondered about which countries have the biggest gold reserves or are the largest producers of gold? Gold Atomic Number: 79 Symbol: Au Atomic Weight: 196.9665 Discovery: Known since prehistoric time Word Origin: Sanskrit Jval; Anglo-Saxon gold; meaning gold – also Latin aurum, shining dawn  Carats and carobs The word ‘carat’ (the measurement for gold purity) comes […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 5, 2010
So even though we have nearly 8,000 banks, the bulk of the assets sit with a small number of banks and the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF), the fund that backs the assets of the banks is actually in the red for $15 billion: www.mybudget360.com
thestatedtruth.com | September 4, 2010
Without tax incentives, this may all be for not……..John Mauldin explains the simple facts of job growth…..Want to increase productivity and jobs? The best way it seems, is to encourage private business, and especially startups. “So we can’t count on the Intels or Microsofts to create employment: we need the entrepreneurs.”  Delta Force There are […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 4, 2010
Even after looking at the market’s rebound from the lows of 2009, nest eggs remain severely impaired. As of the first quarter of 2010, net household assets—homes, 401(k) plans, pension assets and other investments minus debts—stood at $54.6 trillion, down an average of 18% from the end of 2007.  We actually think the losses are higher but we’ll […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 4, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | September 3, 2010
Bond Vs. Stocks…..Pension Allocations. Looks like bonds are priced to perfection here, so if re allocations take place in the next year like this report says, then the results may not be pretty. If interest rates have any kind of a kick to the upside a broad under performance could be setting up for retirement accounts. Hmmm, isn’t […]
thestatedtruth.com | September 2, 2010
Consumers are eschewing fixed-line alternatives for their cell phones, opting to keep connected to a single number whether they’re at home or in the car. www.dailyreckoning.com
thestatedtruth.com | September 2, 2010
Key message here is….. for liquidity ratios, equity fund portfolio managers are at an all-time record low of 3.4%, down from 3.8% in June. Tack on the fact that there are less shorts to be covered – being that the market peaked in April, and short interest is now 4.3% of the S&P 500 market cap (in August 2008 it […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 31, 2010
More then one in six Americans are currently on government anti-poverty programs and the number continues to rise. The chart is below. WASHINGTON — Government anti-poverty programs that have grown to meet the needs of recession victims now serve a record one in six Americans and are continuing to expand. More than 50 million Americans are […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 30, 2010
According to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), bond mutual funds have attracted more money than equity mutual funds for 30 consecutive months through June, the longest stretch in more than 23 years.
thestatedtruth.com | August 29, 2010
Interesting to say the least….rare earth elemnts are used in almost everything that is high tech……. Bloomberg reports that China is cutting back 72% of its exports of Rare Earth metals.  China has said that environmental issues are the reason for the cutbacks. 72% drop in availability of any commodity is important. RE’s are important. Japan […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 26, 2010
One reason of many for a tough road ahead…..       From JPM……The latest profit recovery (the three red dots) is reliant on declining labor costs like none before it. A profit recovery whose foundation is so reliant on sustained high productivity and low real wage growth should not command a very high P/E multiple.  A recent JPM […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 22, 2010
The Phillie Fed report was just awful. Buried in the details was the fact that the hours-worked index is collapsing, consistent with previews to past recessions. Very worrisome. (From my favorite slicer and dicer of data, Greg Weldon: www.weldononline.com) Bottom line? It is going to be a tough environment for the next 6-8 years. That […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 18, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | August 18, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | August 16, 2010
The ECRI index is an important leading indicator. It has now fallen for 10 straight weeks. There are three insurmountable problems in the US economy that are of a magnitude and gravity which can only be remedied by money printing: Federal and state deficits will soon escalate at an exponential rate. The US Federal debt […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 15, 2010
Even after looking at the market’s rebound from the lows of 2009, nest eggs remain severely impaired. As of the first quarter of 2010, net household assets—homes, 401(k) plans, pension assets and other investments minus debts—stood at $54.6 trillion, down an average of 18% from the end of 2007.  We actually think the losses are higher but we’ll […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 12, 2010
We’re looking at what will likely be a multi year process of cleansing. Debts will have to be paid down, leverage decreased and ultimatly spending will have to be cut too! That will make things even worse. Asset values will continue to fall. At some point in the future the system will complete its debt recycling and […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 10, 2010
A deflationary debt spiral is the killer of the American middle class.  Little equity is left because the debt level has stayed basically the same, while most or all their assets including retirement are falling in value.  In total, roughly $7 trillion in U.S. residential real estate values have been lost in the last few years according to the Case […]
thestatedtruth.com | August 7, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | August 3, 2010
thestatedtruth.com | July 24, 2010
By John Mauldin July 24, 2010 Â The Elements of Deflation Just as every school child knows that water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple combination we all know as H2O, so deflation has its own elements of composition. Let’s look at some of them (in no […]
thestatedtruth.com | July 22, 2010
 By Lydia Saad   PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s 2010 Confidence in Institutions poll finds Congress ranking dead last out of the 16 institutions rated this year. Eleven percent of Americans say they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress, down from 17% in 2009 and a percentage point lower than […]
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