Are We Going To Have A “Restructuring Credit Event” Here!

| April 26, 2011

Rather important to say the least, because what happens here may spread like wild fire across the European continent……another fuse looking for a match! In London on Tuesday, UBS’s City office asked the decisions committee of the International Swaps & Derivatives Association to say whether the Irish government’s new Credit Institutions Act signals a “restructuring […]

Deutsche Bank Ranks U.S. Sovereign Risk

| April 26, 2011

Deutsche Bank ranks the U.S. government as the world’s fourth riskiest sovereign borrower, behind Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and just ahead of Italy.

More Basic Math 101

| April 25, 2011

Low interest rates are here forever….or it’s game over!  Realistically speaking, we all know interest rates can’t stay low forever, so…..it’s just a matter of time. With ultra low interest rates, the U.S. interest expense is $440 billion this year or 3% of GDP. If government borrowing rates were to rise a mere 2%, interest expense […]

The Wealth Effect For The Rich Vs. Negative Wealth Effect For Everyone Else!

| April 25, 2011

“The Wealth Effect” — combined with low taxes on capital has concentrated American wealth into the hands of the richest 1%. Seven percent of income flows to the top 0.1 %. Meanwhile, tax receipts in general are the lowest as a percentage of GDP in a half century.

Poverty And Distress Rolls Down The Highway

| April 25, 2011

American poverty and distress, such as food stamp recipients are headed for an all time high!  

Real Estate Heads Into Deeper Waters

| April 24, 2011

From this weeks Barron’s……………Mark Hanson points out, banks and servicers are back with a vengeance and cutting asking prices sharply “to blow out distressed inventory.” Other price depressants he cites include unfavorable demographics, soaring energy costs and a broken mortgage market. The chart below is from Yale economist Robert Shiller, and it plots an index (called […]

Cumberland Advisors…. FDIC & Fed: More Questions Than Answers

| April 24, 2011

David Kotak out with his latest opinion of how things are….normally David has more answers then questions!  Hmm….. Cumberland Advisors FDIC & Fed: more questions than answers April 23, 2011 We thank readers for their kind words about Scylla and Charybdis (www.cumber.com).  We also thank friends Dennis Gartman, John Mauldin and Barry Ritholtz for sharing the […]

Jim Grant Explains Why QE3 Is Coming

| April 21, 2011

Jim Grant ranks in the top tear of analysts covering interest rates…..right at the top of the list with Bill Gross, the founder of PIMCO (the worlds largest bond manager). From his latest Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: “Almost 30% of the respondents to a poll conducted by UBS a few weeks back said they anticipate a […]

Six Dollar Gasoline Could Be Just Around The Corner

| April 21, 2011

$6 Gas? Could happen sooner then you think if the dollar gets weaker and we have one large storm in the Gulf of Mexico!  2012 to 2014 will be hard years.  Batten down the hatches, you’ve been warned. April 20, 2011 By Jeff Cox, Staff Writer A dollar plumbing three-year lows is hitting Americans squarely in the gas […]

Business Current And Future General Activity Indexes Surprise Eonomists…Head South

| April 21, 2011

Trouble dead ahead….remember, we’re (supposedly) in an economic recovery? www.ingerletter.com

S&P Cuts Ratings To Negative For Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, The Federal Home Loan And Farm Credit

| April 20, 2011

This just in from S&P, which does a follow up to its earlier U.S. outlook warning, and revises its GSE and FHLB outlook to negative.  Let’s remember that this is happening in an economic (supposed) recovery. NEW YORK (Standard & Poor’s) April 20, 2011–Standard & Poor’s Ratings  Services said today that it revised its outlooks on […]

Jim Sinclair Interview Covering The World Economy And Gold

| April 20, 2011

An excellent review of the world economic picture and the future of Gold By Ron Hera April 15, 2011 ©2011 Hera Research, LLC The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present an in-depth interview with Jim Sinclair, Chairman and CEO of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration and founder of Jim Sinclair’s MineSet, which hosts his gold commentary […]

Let’s Be Honest, State Revenue Models Are In Ruins

| April 19, 2011

States see biggest revenue drop in 60 years…In a sign of the sluggish economy’s devastating impact, state government revenue across the country dropped by nearly one third in 2009 – the sharpest decline in 60 years, the Census Bureau said in a new report.  Expectations are for 2010 show improvement, but 2011 isn’t going to […]

NYSE Margin Debt Surges, Net Speculator Leverage Second Highest Ever

| April 19, 2011

This is the second highest net leverage ever seen on on the NYSE,  and only a freckle away from a new record….Words to the wise, be prepared is not just a boy scout motto. The NYSE has released its monthly margin debt update for March. Not surprisingly, with EVERYONE chasing nothing but levered beta, margin […]

Stratfor: China And The End Of The Deng Dynasty

| April 19, 2011

  China and the End of the Deng Dynasty By Jennifer Richmond and Matthew Gertken | April 19, 2011 Beijing has become noticeably more anxious than usual in recent months, launching one of the more high-profile security campaigns to suppress political dissent since the aftermath of Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989. Journalists, bloggers, artists, Christians […]

S&P Cuts U.S. Ratings Outlook to Negative

| April 18, 2011

History shows it’s all forgotten by the next day……maybe this time will be different! A stark warning from S&P about the U.S. government’s fiscal problems stoked concern on Wall Street and in Washington on Monday,  intensifying political divisions concerning the growing deficits. House of Representatives Republican leader Eric Cantor on Monday called the Standard & Poor’s downgrade […]

A Gold Tipping Point….We’ll Know Soon Enough! Gold Is An Under Owned Investment….

| April 17, 2011

Hmm….The University of  Texas whose $19.9 billion in assets ranked it second only behind Harvard University’s endowment as of August, added about $500 million in gold investments to an existing stake last year, and took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion….”storing the bars in a New York vault, according to the fund’s board.” said Bruce Zimmerman, […]

To Big To Fail, And To Big To Regulate

| April 17, 2011

Goldman makes their own rules!  Goldman broke the law and lied.   Eliot Spitzer: ” If they don’t prosecute, shame on them. If they don’t, the Attorney General should resign if he can’t bring this case.” Goldman is back in the spotlight following Carl Levin’s concluding report, referring Goldman Sachs to the same law enforcement authorities that are […]

E*Trade Baby…..I Want My Mommy, I Just Blew My Wadd!

| April 15, 2011

Yep, Let this be a lesson to you….cry baby! www.zerohedge.com

Harsh Words Out Of The White House

| April 15, 2011

President Obama has interesting but harsh words out of the White House…..Let’s look at his record,  looks like the old saying, do as I say, not as I do! “Failure by Congress to raise the U.S. debt limit “could plunge the world economy back into recession,” President Barack Obama declared Friday, and he acknowledged that he […]

Banks Face $3.6 Trillion ‘Wall’ of Debt According To The IMF

| April 14, 2011

Say what, how much did the IMF say….yep, pushing 4 trillion dollars, looks like another piece of dynamite looking for a match!!    For 2011, Japan and the United States face the largest public debt rollovers of any advanced economy at 56 percent and 29 percent of gross domestic product, respectively. It repeated its warning that the United […]

Interesting Tid Bits….Why We’re A Broke Society

| April 12, 2011

There are now 6.4 million fewer jobs in America than there were when the recession began, but the government says the recession is long gone…….. Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now 5 times larger than it was 20 years ago…..so we’re talking 5 times larger than 1991 folks! Wow, and people wonder why we’re […]

A Bum Deal………

| April 12, 2011

We’re not surprised! Commentary Magazine reports that the “Budget Deal”, won after so much theatrics, soap opera, and Razzie nominations, may in fact collapse shortly. “The big news today is that the $38.5 billion in budget cuts announced with such fanfare on Friday night mostly aren’t real. A good deal of it involves money from […]

“Spent Fuel Pools In U.S. Are A Potential Timebomb”

| April 11, 2011

Nuclear Whistleblower: “Spent Fuel Pools in U.S. are a potential timebomb, situation can get worse than Chernobyl”….So here in is the problem, will any government in the world be honest about nuclear power plant problems until it’s to late!  This is just one of the many reasons to say no to nuclear power solutions! Interview by Tuur Demeester […]

Fukushima Accident Assessment Officially Raised To Maximum Level 7

| April 11, 2011

Just for the record…..level 7!  And now we are getting unconfirmed reports that radiation content in Hawaii milk is orders of magnitude greater than Federal Drinking water limits. While one can bicker over the exact number, it is certain that as long as Fukushima continues to billow radioactive smoke, steam and/or water, cumulative radiation levels, both […]

Demographics…My Dear Watson!

| April 10, 2011

Here is why things are broken for baby boomers, and unlikely to get a lot better any time soon! The interesting thing about the post-war baby boom and our guns-and-butter generation isn’t what happened during or as a result of this population tidal wave, but what didn’t happen:  the birth rate in America abruptly fell […]

Why Education Matters In The Job Market

| April 9, 2011

From Chapter 4 Of The Book Endgame: What it shows is that employment is very skewed, as is income. This was as of the end of 2009, but the principle is the same. The clear problem in the United States is this: If the highly skilled have 2.5 percent unemployment, how do you reduce that? […]

Another Stock Market Warning

| April 9, 2011

More warning signals for the stock market………just the opposite of the bottom!

The The Devolution Of The Consumer Economy…Rising Costs, Declining Wages

| April 8, 2011

It’s here and now folks, the widening gap between declining incomes and higher costs has been filled with borrowed money. Now that borrowing has reached its limit,  the consumer economy is devolving.  Here is what it means. The cost structure of the entire U.S. economy has bloated to unsustainable levels. Here’s the basic mechanism: when money […]

Mall Vacancies Are At The Highest Rate In 11 Years; Strip Mall Vacancy Rates Are Highest Since 1990

| April 8, 2011

Nobody seems to be paying attention to this….. From the WSJ: Mall vacancies hit their highest level in at least 11 years in the first quarter, new figures from real-estate research company Reis Inc. showed. In the top 80 U.S. markets, the average vacancy rate was 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The outlook is especially bad […]

Protests Erupt In Syria

| April 8, 2011

The Middle East is a fuse looking for a match…. Syrian security forces opened fire on tens of thousands of protesters across several cities Friday, killing at least 20 people, wounding hundreds and forcing residents to turn mosques into makeshift hospitals.

U.S. Consumer Credit Rises 3.8% Annualized In February

| April 7, 2011

Here is the secret sauce…..revolving credit, or credit cards, actually fell during this period, down 4%.  But non- revolving credit, which includes student, auto, and other loans, increased by 7.7%. Interesting to note that January’s numbers were revised down which had the effect of making these February numbers look even better.   U.S. consumer credit surged […]

The Top 1%

| April 7, 2011

The top 1 percent have over 40 percent of all financial wealth in this country. And…The top 1 percent has never done so well in relative terms.  In fact we would have to go back to the years prior to the Great Depression to find such a glaring divide with income inequality: Source:  Center on […]

Portugal Lights Out…. Pleads For EU Bailout, Joining Greece And Ireland…Spain On Deck

| April 6, 2011

Portugal has been saying we are good, we don’t need help…they have been saying it over and over…Now, Portugal says we need help fast!  The dominoes are falling in Europe, and we haven’t seen anything yet! Running out of money and paralyzed by a political crisis, Portugal said it would ask the European Union for a financial […]

Obama Healthcare Bill Known As The “1099 Repeal” Has Passed Congress

| April 5, 2011

At least it’s a start…..Congress passes a measure known as the “1099 repeal” because it would relieve businesses of having to file 1099 tax forms for any person or company to which they pay at least $600 in a year. Congress on Tuesday passed the first major changes to last year’s health care law, undoing both […]

Stock Market Tid Bits, And The Long Term Kress Cycles

| April 3, 2011

The Fed Q Ratio (chart below) is signaling a warning for stocks……it is saying that we are currently at a level seen only 6 times since 1900!  So lets look at this in terms of the Kress Cycles between now and Sept-October (the approximate date of the Kress 6 Year Cycle high  This is where we could see a market […]

GOP To Propose $4 Trillion In Spending Cuts…Here’s The Rub, It’s Over The Next Decade!

| April 3, 2011

Over the next decade, a million things could happen, the least of them we think is $4 trillion in spending cuts. From The Wall Street Journal: House Republicans will propose slashing federal spending by more than $4 trillion over the next decade, by capping spending, overhauling entitlement programs and revamping the tax system, the chairman of […]

Food Stamps Hit New All Time Record

| April 1, 2011

The total foodstamp participation in January hit an all time record 44,187,831 according to the USDA.  The average amount recieved per participent is $132.81 per month.  We might add that we are in an economic recovrey….but the GDP growth looks to be about the rate of inflation, which means if we buy the same things as […]

Real Estate Sales Of Tomorrow, Happened Yesterday (Or 2002-2006 As May Be The Case)

| April 1, 2011

Governments are STUPID……Last week we found out that fewer new houses were sold in February than in any month since they started keeping records in 1963….yep, the more you give somebody, the more they become reliant on it, then when it stops, they don’t know what to do.  We’re seeing this same thing happen over and over.  […]

The Seeds Of Discontent

| March 31, 2011

To see the real story, just look at the charts….. The top 1 percent  control 42 percent of all financial wealth. Growing Inequality…the middle class vs. the rich Growing Inequality…in income Source:  Social Security Does this look like a recovery to you?   More and More Food Stamps……and no end in sight And Real Estate values are […]

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