Case-Shiller Real Estate Prices Continue To Fall Even With Record Low Interest Rates!

| February 28, 2012

There is no housing recovery as of yet….that according to Case Shiller. The Case Shiller housing index just showed a 8th consecutive month of home price declines. During this time we’ve had one of the most favorable winter buying periods ever, caused by favorable weather conditions accross the United States with one of the warmest winters on record (other then in Alaska). And let’s not forget the record low interest rates on mortgages. Anyone […]

A Sign Of The Times…Or Is It The New Normal?

| February 25, 2012

Part of this is demographics.  www.frontlinethoughts.com

Social Media, The Real Story

| February 16, 2012

Sounds plausible! As part of its social media survey Goldman Sachs asked respondents what is the main reason for people to “log on” to various social networking venues. The answer, by a wide margin, is the expected one: namely to spy, and to compare whether our lives are more boring, less glitzy and exciting, with […]

Reality Check….

| February 7, 2012

Alaska produces about 10% of the oil in the U.S.  But one look at this chart will explain where we’ve been and where we’re going… in Alaska!

Consumer Credit Soars By Third Highest Ever

| February 7, 2012

So…the consumer confidence level is soaring right along with the consumer debt, and the savings rate is plunging.  Now we understand why the Federal reserve has been so worried lately.  The worry is that this consumer spending binge is totally unsustainable and likely to burn out soon! A report from the Labor Department today also showed there […]

Listen Up Class, We Have More On Housing And It’s ‘Worth’ Your Attention, Pun Intended

| January 28, 2012

According to Freddie Mac, while the value of all housing is down 30%, and home equity is down 55%, we see that mortgage debt owed is only down a minestrone 3%. Bottom line, the U.S. housing market is back to the Armageddon high debt-to-equity ratio that was only ever seen during the Q1 2009 economic wipe out, and even worse, we […]

2011 New Home Sales Fall To Record Low

| January 26, 2012

Negative demographics as far as the eye can see. and it’s reflected in the median price for new homes, which just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data), December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to […]

Our Current Plight Is Looking Worse, Not better

| January 20, 2012

Confidence levels have been rising rapidly…and the government says things are getting better, people are starting to borrow again, using their credit cards more, and out and about in a spending mood….but the exhibit below tells a more realistic story of our current plight.  So, are things really any better then they were?  We’ll let you answer that one! Chart: […]

Philly Fed Misses Expectations As Outlook Nears Cyclical Peak

| January 19, 2012

The six-month ahead outlook for Philly Fed shows a very high level of ‘hope’. Expectations for the data was a 10.3 and it came at 7.3, a definitive miss to expectations. Revisions rise to 7.3 (from 6.8 revised) is heralded (in a short-lived manner) as evidence of improvement. Under the covers though, things aren’t so rosy. New Orders […]

Baltic Dry Index Drops To Lowest Levels Since January 2009

| January 17, 2012

This points to a global slowing in the economies of the world….The index has fallen for 19 days in a row, down almost 50%, its largest drop since the harrowing period of Q4 2008…….Capice. By definition: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic […]

A Demographic Scoop, And More Demographic Poop

| January 12, 2012

It’s all about demographics my dear Watson….here’s some food for thought! First up let’s study a graph of the Census Bureau historical and forecast data for the peak-spending cohort population in the U.S. from 1980 to 2050. The Age 45-49 cohort peaked in 2009 and will bottom out in 2022 after an estimated decline of […]

Natural Gas Prices Continue To Plummet

| January 12, 2012

The good news for the consumer is that “experts” predict rock-bottom natural-gas prices through at least 2013. “We’re anticipating sustained low gas prices,” says Andy Steinhubl, from Bain & Co.’s North American oil and gas practice.  This from The Wall Street Journal….. U.S. energy companies are pumping so much natural gas out of the ground that […]

Consumer Credit Jumps By Most In 10 Years

| January 9, 2012

Yep, everybody and their brother are out buying things…the mystery is, that the consumer is re-leveraging while most of their assets are deflating fast.  This will be double trouble.  PIMCO, Bridgewater and Soros have recently been warning about this. Heads up…the just released G.19, aka Consumer Credit  data from the Fed shows a stunning November in which U.S. households borrowed […]

So Let’s See…. Who Are The 1 Percent?

| January 8, 2012

Sooooo…Let’s Review The Inequity Of It All !

| January 8, 2012

These Are Just The Facts…

| January 5, 2012

Nothing is going to change this. It is what it is!

The Real Picture Of Unemployment

| December 5, 2011

A picture is worth a thousand words, especially on this subject! Rutgers University Working Paper Categorizing the Unemployed by the Impact of the Recession By Dr. Cliff Zukin, Dr. Carl E. Van Horn, and Charley Stone In August 2009, the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey […]

46.3 Million Americans Are Now On Foodstamps…Yep, That’s Right!

| December 5, 2011

The latest update from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) shows 423,000 more Americans just found their way to the Food Stamp train from Uncle Sam. This should be good for Walmart.

Tidbits

| October 29, 2011

Looks like eating out is a growth business…hmm! The “eat out” numbers fell in 2009. But they recovered in 10’ and are headed higher again in 11’. We had recession. A big one. But consumers barely batted an eye. It’s a surprisng result.

GDP Numbers Don’t Always Tell The Story…

| October 28, 2011

Yesterday, the U.S. GDP for the third quarter of 2011 unexpectedly surprised to the upside at +2.5% vs +.7% in the second quarter…. You’re not alone wondering how it was possible for Q three GDP to post such a substantial improvement driven by mostly a surge in Personal Consumption expenditures?   Well, so do we!  Looks to us like it was at the […]

Bubbles…Here And There And Everywhere

| October 23, 2011

We’ve all heard about what’s going on in Greece…but this bubble chart will help explain how other countries in Europe compare.

What Is Interesting About This Chart?

| October 7, 2011

The consumer has hit a wall with credit growth, and can’t handle any more agony, while the government is borrowing like a drunk sailor. www.zerohedge.com

Run Baby Run…

| September 26, 2011

Concerning the stock markets, a proven technique has been when in doubt, run for the hills….. From The Wall Street Journal: In a historic retreat, investors world-wide during the three months through August pulled some $92 billion out of stock funds in the developed markets, according to data provider EPFR Global—an exodus that more than […]

Buried!

| September 18, 2011

We have literally buried our young college students with a debt burden that will change their lives for decades. But nobody’s paying attention as the colleges need every penny they can get.  Looking at the chart below, it’s shocking to see that student debt has almost quadrupled in less then three years! Shocking! The unemployment rate for […]

SAT…Sing A Tune, Nope – Let’s Try Again

| September 14, 2011

SAT Reading Scores for 2011 hit an all-time low, but here’s the reason why….In 1973 at the begining of this chart, and in fact before about 2004, only students planning to go to college took the test.  Now, schools encourage…and in some states make, every student take the test.  That makes the average drop, drop, drop. h/t John […]

Listening Near And Far

| September 14, 2011

Interesting to say the least!  The National Security Agency (NSA) has opened a massive $2 billion, 1 million-square-foot complex in the Utah desert…devoted to storing and sorting through emails, web searches and business transactions. This system is capable of monitoring 10 million people simultaneously this year and will be able to monitor 100 million next year! You’re […]

As The World Slows……

| August 15, 2011

Ding Dong, The Wicked Witch Is Dead….Or, Maybe Not! Stone McCarthy:  Negative Empire Survey Results  “You usually don’t get three straight months of negative results unless you are in a recession  (Note: NY Fed historical data only started in July 2001). ” SMRA continues: “If that’s not bad enough for you, the forward-looking new orders […]

Food Stamp Use Surges To New Record

| August 2, 2011

So….our only question is: What happens if the economy gets really bad (by government standards)?  Remember, the government says we’re still in a recovery. Just released data shows foodstamp usage increased over 1.1 million in the the highest single monthly jump in Foodstamp participation since mid 2009,that was when eligibility requirements were adjusted. We now have what amounts […]

When Ever We See The Government Working Hard On Something, We Like To Drag Out Of The Closet The Good Old Governmental Flow Chart

| July 31, 2011

We couldn’t be more poetic if we tried…… scratch Pelosi from this chart and substitute Boehner, but it won’t change a thing!

It’s “Elementary, My Dear Watson”

| July 8, 2011

It’s “elementary, my dear Watson”…..Follow the floating balls in the chart below, the bigger the ball, the worse the debt/GDP situation is for that country. When it comes to the stability of the European dominoes, let’s think for a moment about Italy, which is not only the second worst country in Europe after Greece on a […]

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To 25 Year Low: 64.1%

| July 8, 2011

These ratios are looking terrible.  How can anyone expect the economy or real estate for that matter to turn with these kinds of numbers.  Or, are we just being too logical here?  Baby boomers are screwed.  Plain and simple. The civilian labor force has declined to 64.1%.   The employment to population ratio also slumped to a multi decade […]

A Different Way To Look At Unemployment

| July 8, 2011

So…….here we go with one of the very big problems in our economy.  The government continues to say that we’re in a recovery, but it’s really just a hallucination.  We”re being kind when we say that!  Draw your own conclusions. The number of people not in the labor force who want a job now surged to a fresh all time high […]

Jobs Report Looks Punk…Bad Seats, Hey Buddy!

| July 8, 2011

Should we be surprised? The U.S. economy barely added jobs in June and the unemployment rate rose to the highest level this year.  To make matters worse,  the birth/death adjustment was responsible for over 50% of the job payroll gains over the last 12 months!   And everybody thought we were just kidding when we said “bad seats, […]

Bank For International Settlements Warns Of Higher Interest Rates

| June 28, 2011

Interest rates are at record 100 year lows, but even so, the world is sporting an unusually slow learning curve!  Logically speaking, if interest rates were to climb,  it would be “lights out, game over” and the mother of all depressions.  Something to think about since no one else seems to be interested. BIS is warning of higher rates […]

Job Growth, Or… Lack Of Growth As The Case May Be

| June 28, 2011

This is what we have to look forward to……2012 is supposed to be worse then 2011 for government, state and local jobs.  That’s why this is going to be called the LOST decade! In March 2010, the U.S. economy finally began to add jobs again. Every month since then, private sector employment has grown. Yet almost every month […]

The Inability Of Nations And Consumers To Get Out of Debt, Weighs On Global Economy, And Will For A Long Time

| June 26, 2011

From The Wall Street Journal….. Today, U.S. consumers have more mortgage and credit-card debt than they did five years ago.  Given the difficulties of paying down debt, “you have to get comfortable with the idea that it’s going to take a long time for the markets to adjust and for the economy to get back on […]

It’s Murphy’s Law….Usually When A Chart Goes Off The Top Of A Page, Things Soon After Reverse The Other Way…

| June 15, 2011

The gap between spending and revenues has never been larger! The American consumer is tapped.  Just look at the outstanding debt count: -over $10 trillion in mortgage debt -$1 trillion in student loan debt -over $750 billion in credit card debt We also have billions more in automotive debt.  This is simply unsustainable and we […]

The Average Jack And Jill See Little Benefit From Huge Government Stimulus Programs

| June 15, 2011

It’s a sign of the times and also why generations of workers are screwed for as far as the eye can see….main street Jack and Jill see little if any government stimulus drift down to him or her.  It’s the sad but real truth.  The better question though is ….How do we fix this?  The common answer from the […]

So Class…Today We Will Review The World Gold Holdings And Production Rankings

| June 14, 2011

China and Russia are moving up on the Gold holdings chart… but the IMF is selling everything that’s not nailed down.  Otherwise it all stays pretty much the same.  The Gold production rankings are as follows and listed in order of production……China, Australia, South Africa,USA, Russia and Peru. 

World Oil Reserves….

| June 14, 2011

Interesting comments from The Inger Letter….

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